Proliferation and Export Controls

by Bailey, Kathleen; Rudney, Robert

• ISBN13: 9780819187208
• ISBN10: 0819187208
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1992-11-19
• Publisher: UPA

Summary

This collection of essays explores the problem of nuclear, chemical and missile proliferation. Contributors discuss the role of export controls in preventing or delaying proliferation, and contrast the relative benefits of export controls with their costs to industry and to international political relationships. Particular emphasis is placed on the challenges posed by export controls to the US-European Community partnership, and to the effects of European unity following unity in 1993. Contributors: Bill Richardson, John Harvey, Michael Elleman, Matthias Dembinski, Benoit Morel, David Fischer, Jeff Bingaman, Jan Hoekema, Harald Muller, William Burns, Richard Kauzlarich, and Reinhard Rode.

Table of Contents

Contributors
Introduction
The Threat of Nuclear Proliferation To Europe Matthias Dembinski
Disintegration of the USSR as a Proliferation Threat	p. 1
Proliferation Threats from the South	p. 2
European Perceptions	p. 5
The Threat of Chemical and Biological Proliferation	p. 15
Status and Trends	p. 15
The Threat to the United States and Europe	p. 16
Lessons from Iraq	p. 16
Implications for Military Preparedness	p. 17
Responses to Proliferation	p. 18
The Proliferation of Ballistic Missiles: What is the Threat?	p. 19
What "Drives" Ballistic Missile Proliferation?	p. 20
Threats from Missile Proliferation	p. 23
Future Threats	p. 27
Current and Future Missile Production Capabilities	p. 31
The London Club and the Zangger Committee: How Effective?	p. 39
The Creation of the Two Committees	p. 40
The Efficacy of the Supply Control Regime	p. 41
Nonproliferation Export Controls: Problems and Alternatives	p. 49
Effectiveness of Export Controls	p. 49
Cost of Export Controls	p. 52
Policy Alternatives	p. 53
How Effective is the Australia Group?	p. 57
Brief History of the Australia Group	p. 57
Current Australia Group Activities	p. 59
The North Versus South Problem	p. 62
Who Should Be in the Australia Group?	p. 62
Proliferation, NATO, and the Common Interest	p. 65
Structure and Strategy in NATO	p. 65
Options for Nonproliferation Security Policy	p. 69
Intelligence	p. 69
Threat Definition	p. 71
Coercive Diplomacy	p. 72
Security Assurances	p. 72
Military Responses to Proliferation	p. 73
Legitimate Procedures and Consensus-Building	p. 75
Arms Control and Arms Reductions	p. 76
The European Perspective on Proliferation Export Controls	p. 79
Nonproliferation Export Controls in Europe	p. 79
European Versus US Views on Export Controls	p. 83
Problems To Face	p. 84
US-EC Nonproliferation Cooperation: An American View	p. 87
The Strategic Environment and Export Control Regimes	p. 87
The EC Grapples with Export Controls	p. 88
US-EC Cooperation in a New Era	p. 88
Economic Issues in the US-EC Cooperation: A German View	p. 91
The European Community's Approach to Export Controls	p. 95
The Organizational Problem	p. 96
The External Policy Problem	p. 98
The Future of Export Controls	p. 99
Improving Nonproliferation Export Controls	p. 101
Why Not CoCom?	p. 101
European Divergence and the German Role	p. 102
The Demand for US-EC Action	p. 104
Appendix A	p. 107
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms	p. 117
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