Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

by Heuer, Richard J., Jr.

• ISBN13: 9781594546792
• ISBN10: 1594546797
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2005-08-30
• Publisher: Nova Science Pub Inc

Summary

With intelligence now getting a front-row seat in governments around the world, this book is especially timely. Intelligence rains in, but without an understanding of the nature of the intelligence, it accumulates in puddles of obscurity. The problems therefore seem to be how to obtain it, how to understand it, and how to sell it to one's bosses. This book deals with how to understand it. Three fundamental points are at the heart of this presentation about the cognitive challenges intelligence analysts face: The mind is poorly "wired" to deal effectively with both inherent uncertainty (the natural fog surrounding complex, indeterminate intelligence issues) and induced uncertainty (the man-made fog fabricated by denial and deception operations). Even increased awareness of cognitive and other "unmotivated" biases, such as the tendency to see information confirming an already-held judgement more vividly than one sees "disconfirming" information, does little by itself to help analysts deal effectively with uncertainty. Tools and techniques that gear the analyst's mind to apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex issues on which information is incomplete, ambiguous, and often deliberately distorted. Key examples of such intellectual devices include techniques for structuring information, challenging assumptions, and exploring alternative interpretations. This book was first issued by the CIA.

Table of Contents

Introduction : improving intelligence analysis at CIA : Dick Heuer's contribution to intelligence analysis	p. 1
Thinking about thinking	p. 15
Perception : why can't we see what is there to be seen?	p. 21
Memory : how do we remember what we know?	p. 31
Strategies for analytical judgment : transcending the limits of incomplete information	p. 47
Do you really need more information?	p. 65
Keeping an open mind	p. 77
Structuring analytical problems	p. 95
Analysis of competing hypotheses	p. 105
What are cognitive biases?	p. 121
Biases in evaluation of evidence	p. 125
Biases in perception of cause and effect	p. 135
Biases in estimating probabilities	p. 153
Hindsight biases in evaluation of intelligence reporting	p. 165
Improving intelligence analysis	p. 179
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