A Question of Balance Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute (2009)

by Shlapak, David A.; Orletsky, David T.; Reid, Toy I.; Tanner, Murray Scot; Wilson, Barry

• ISBN13: 9780833047465
• ISBN10: 0833047469
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2009-09-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

The relationship between China and Taiwan is more stable in 2009 than it has been in years, but China has nonetheless not renounced its right” to use force to forestall Taiwan’s independence.” At the same time, the cross-strait military balance is shifting in ways that are problematic for Taiwan’s defense: The growing size and quality of China’s missile arsenal, along with other advances in Chinese military capabilities, call into question the United States’ and Taiwan’s ability to defend the island against a large-scale Chinese attack. In this volume, the authors employ a mix of theater-level combat modeling, simpler mathematical models, historical analysis, interviews with experts, and qualitative judgment to evaluate both the China-Taiwan political dynamic and the cross-strait military balance. Shlapak et al. conclude with a discussion of how Taiwan might be successfully defended against a Chinese invasion attempt.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Tables	p. xi
Summary	p. xiii
Acknowledgments	p. xxi
Abbreviations	p. xxiii
Introduction	p. 1
A Caveat	p. 3
Changing Cross-Strait Political Dynamics	p. 5
Beijing's Attitude Toward the Status Quo: Will Patience Remain a Virtue?	p. 6
The Effects of Cross-Strait Economic Integration	p. 8
Mainland Sanctions Against Imports from Taiwan	p. 10
Disruption, Damage, or Sabotage of Financial Markets or Information Networks	p. 11
Selective Harassment or Intimidation of Taiwanese Businesspeople	p. 12
Taiwan's Evolving National Identity	p. 14
The Legacy of Chen Shui-bian	p. 16
The Politics of the Shifting Cross-Strait Military Balance	p. 22
Security Implications of the Changing Political Landscape	p. 26
The Dangers of Disappointment	p. 28
Missiles over the Strait: China's Short-Range Ballistic Missile Force	p. 31
China's Short-Range Ballistic Missile Force	p. 32
A Simplifying Assumption	p. 34
Air Base Attack	p. 35
Cutting Runways	p. 37
Hangars/Maintenance Facilities	p. 44
Attacking Aircraft Parked in the Open	p. 45
Air Base Attack Observations	p. 50
Concluding Observations	p. 51
Assessing the Air War	p. 53
Analytic Approach and Scenario Variables	p. 56
Chinese Aircrew Quality	p. 58
Chinese Air Operations	p. 58
Defenses Against Chinese PGMs	p. 59
Blue Sortie Generation	p. 60
ROC SAM Survivability	p. 60
Shelters at Blue Bases	p. 61
U.S. Forces Engaged	p. 62
Laying Out the Scenario Space	p. 63
Character of the Air War	p. 63
The Base Case Battle	p. 64
Measures of Merit	p. 67
Overall Outcomes and Driving Factors	p. 69
Chinese Air Force Modernization	p. 72
Chinese Aircrew Quality	p. 72
Chinese Air Operations	p. 74
Defenses Against Precision-Guided Munitions	p. 74
Taiwanese Air Force Modernization	p. 75
Blue Sortie Generation	p. 76
ROC SAM Survivability	p. 79
Number of Shelters	p. 80
U.S. Contributions	p. 81
Concluding Remarks: Not Your Father's Air War	p. 84
Sidebar: Would China Attack Japan?	p. 86
The Ultimate Roll of the Dice: A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan	p. 91
The Last Campaign of the Civil War: PLA Amphibious Operations, 1949-1955	p. 94
The Falklands Campaign: Amphibious Warfare in the Age of the Antiship Missile	p. 96
Looking Forward: The Lessons of "Operation Corporate"	p. 100
Assessing the Odds: Could the Chinese Invade Taiwan?	p. 103
Adding It Up: The Invasion Threat to Taiwan	p. 118
Implications, Conclusions, and Considerations	p. 123
The Political Backdrop	p. 124
The Fall of Shot: Of Warheads, Wreckage, and Will	p. 125
Unfriendly Skies: New Concepts Needed for New Challenges	p. 129
On the Beach: Defeating a Chinese Invasion	p. 135
Broadening the Scope: Implications for Other Scenario Variants	p. 137
The Tyranny of Distance and the Longer Term	p. 139
A Question of Balance: Maintaining Equilibrium on the Strait	p. 141
Appendix Missile Attacks on Economic Targets on Taiwan	p. 145
Bibliography	p. 151
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