Rational Choice in an Uncertain World : The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

by Hastie, Reid; Dawes, Robyn

• ISBN13: 9780761922759
• ISBN10: 076192275X
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-04-13
• Publisher: Sage Publications, Inc

Summary

In Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, renowned authors Hastie and Dawes compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behavior in making decisions. They describe theories and research finding from the field of judgement and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well.

Author Biography

Reid Hastie is Professor of Psychology and Director of the Center for Research on Judgment and Policy at the University of Colorado Robyn M. Dawes is the Charles J. Queenan, Jr., University Professor of Psychology at Carnegie Mellon.

Table of Contents

Preface	xi
Thinking and Deciding	1	(24)
Decision Making Is a Skill	1	(2)
Thinking: Automatic and Controlled	3	(4)
The Computational Model of the Mind	7	(5)
Through Darkest Psychoanalytic Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition	12	(5)
Quality of Choice: Rationality	17	(2)
The Invention of Modern Decision Theory	19	(6)
What Is Decision Making?	25	(174)
Definition of a Decision	25	(4)
Picturing Decisions	29	(4)
Decision Quality Revisited	33	(1)
Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example	34	(2)
Overinclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs	36	(6)
The Rationality of Considering Only the Future	42	(3)
The Rest of This Book	45	(143)
Changing Our Minds: Bayes' Theorem	188	(7)
Concluding Comment on Rationality	195	(4)
Evaluating Consequences: Simple Values	199	(28)
What Good Is Happiness?	199	(7)
Role of Emotion in Choice	206	(7)
How We Sense Values: From the Just Noticeable Difference to Prospect Theory	213	(9)
Mental Accounting	222	(5)
Complex Values and Attitudes	227	(22)
The Construction of Values	227	(3)
Deliberate Choices Between Complex Alternatives	230	(7)
Ordering Alternatives	237	(5)
Grouping Alternatives	242	(2)
How to Make Good Choices	244	(5)
A Normative, Rational Decision Theory	249	(40)
A Formal Definition of Rationality	249	(7)
Subjective Expected Utility Theory	256	(19)
Traditional Objections to the Axioms	275	(4)
The Should's and Do's of the System	279	(6)
Some Bum Raps for Decision Analysis	285	(4)
A Descriptive, Psychological Decision Theory	289	(24)
Nonexpected Utility Theories	289	(9)
Gain-Loss Framing Effects	298	(10)
Loss Aversion	308	(2)
Look to the Future	310	(3)
In Praise of Uncertainty	313	(18)
Uncertainty as Negative	313	(5)
An Illusion of Hedonic Certainty	318	(1)
The Price of Denying Uncertainty	319	(7)
Two Cheers for Uncertainty	326	(2)
Living With Uncertainty	328	(3)
Appendix: Basic Principles of Probability Theory	331	(26)
A.1: The Concept of Probability	331	(2)
A.2: From Gods to Numbers	333	(6)
A.3: The Principles of Probability Theory	339	(8)
A.4: Beliefs That Violate the Principles of Probability Theory	347	(2)
A.5: Bayes' Theorem	349	(2)
A.6: The Post Hoc Analysis of Coincidence	351	(6)
Index	357	(14)
About the Authors	371