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Thinking and Deciding | |
Decision Making Is a Skill | |
Thinking: automatic and Controlled | |
The Computational Model of the Mind | |
Through the Darkest Psychoanalytical Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition | |
Quality of Choice: Rationality | |
The Invention of Modern Decision Theory | |
What Is Decision Making? | |
Definition of a Decision | |
Picturing Decisions | |
Decision Quality, Revisited | |
Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example | |
Over-Inclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs | |
The Rationality of Considering Only the Future | |
The Rest of This Book | |
A General Framework for Judgment | |
A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction | |
Research With the Lens Model Framework | |
Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models | |
How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment? | |
Practical Implications of the Surprising Success of the Linear Model | |
Objections and Rebuttals | |
The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions | |
The Fundamental Judgment Strategy: Anchoring and Adjustment | |
Salient Values | |
Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment | |
Anchoring on Ourselves | |
Anchoring the Past in the Present | |
Judging Heuristically | |
Going Beyond the Information Given | |
Estimating Frequencies and probabilities | |
Availability of Memories | |
Biased Samples in Memory | |
Biased Sampling From Memory | |
Availability to the Imagination | |
From Availability to Probablility and Causality | |
Judgment by Similarity: Same Old Things | |
Representative Thinking | |
The Ratio Rule | |
Explanation-Based Judgments | |
Everyone Likes a Good Story | |
The Conjunction Probabliity Error (Again) | |
Judging From Explanations | |
Legal Scenarios: The Best Story Wins in the Courtroom | |
Scenarios About Ourselves | |
Scenarios About the Unthinkable | |
Hindsight: Reconstructing the Past | |
Sometimes It's Better to Forget | |
Chance and Cause | |
Misconceptions About Chance | |
Illusions of Control | |
Seeing Causal Structure Where It Isn't | |
Regression Toward the Mean | |
Reflections on Our Inability to Accept Randomness | |
Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty | |
What to Do About the Biases | |
Getting Started Thinking in Terms of Probabilities | |
Comprehending the Situation Being Judged | |
Testing for Rationality | |
How to Think About Inverse Probabilities | |
Avoiding Subadditivity and Conjunction Errors | |
The Other Side of the Coin: The Probability of a Disjunction of Events | |
Changing Our Minds: Bayes's Theorem | |
Statistical Decision Theory | |
Concluding Comment on Rationality | |
Evaluating Consequences: Fundamental Preferences | |
What Good is Happiness? | |
The Role of Emotions in Evaluations | |
The Value of Money | |
Decision Utility -- Predicting What We will Value | |
Constructing Values | |
From Preferences to Choices | |
Deliberate Choices Among Complex Alternatives | |
Ordering Alternatives | |
Grouping Alternatives | |
Choosing Alternatives | |
How to Make Good Choices | |
A Rational Decision Theory | |
Formally Defining Rationality | |
Making Theories Understandable -- The Axiomatic Method | |
Defining Rationality: Expected Utility Theory | |
Traditional Objections to the Axioms | |
The Shoulds and Dos of the System | |
Some Bum Raps for Decision Analysis | |
A Descriptive Decision Theory | |
Non-expected Utility Theories | |
Gain-Loss Framing Effects | |
Loss Aversion | |
Look to the Future | |
What's Next? New Directions in Research on Judgment and Decision Making | |
The Neuroscience of Decisions | |
Emotions in Decision Making | |
The Rise of Experimental Methods to Study Dynamic Decisions | |
Do We Really Know Where We're Headed? | |
In Praise of Uncertianty | |
Uncertainty as Negative | |
The Illusion of Hedonic Certainty | |
The Price of Denying Uncertainty | |
Two Cheers for Uncertainty | |
Living With Uncertainty | |
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