Preface | p. iii |
Figures | p. vii |
Tables | p. ix |
Summary | p. xi |
Acknowledgments | p. xiii |
Introduction | p. 1 |
High-Quality Enlistment Supply and Demand | p. 2 |
Plan of the Report | p. 4 |
Variables Influencing Enlistment Supply | p. 7 |
Overview | p. 7 |
Time-Series/Cross-Section Structure | p. 8 |
Variables Linked to Youths' Opportunities | p. 9 |
Civilian Opportunities | p. 9 |
Military Opportunities | p. 10 |
Variables Linked to Recruiting Effort | p. 12 |
Expected Recruiting Performance | p. 13 |
Goals | p. 15 |
Recruiters | p. 16 |
Numbers of Youths and Numbers of Contracts | p. 16 |
Geographic and Temporal Dummy Variables | p. 20 |
The Econometric Models | p. 21 |
A Formal Model | p. 21 |
Econometric Strategy | p. 25 |
Particulars for the Four Services | p. 28 |
Empirical Results | p. 31 |
Estimated Models | p. 31 |
The Army Model | p. 33 |
The Marine Corps Model | p. 40 |
The Air Force Model | p. 44 |
The Navy Model | p. 47 |
Conclusions and Recommendations | p. 51 |
Appendix | |
A Formal Model of Enlistment Supply | p. 55 |
The Stochastic Specification and Estimation Procedures | p. 61 |
Estimation Results for Aggregate and Logarithmic Models for the Army | p. 75 |
Bibliography | p. 81 |
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