Reconciliation of National Income and Expenditure: Balanced Estimates of National Income for the United Kingdom, 1920–1990

by James Sefton , Martin Weale

• ISBN13: 9780521496353
• ISBN10: 0521496357
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1996-02-23
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

This book was first published in 1995. The problem of disparities between different estimates of GDP is well known and widely discussed. Here, the authors describe a method for examining the discrepancies using a technique allocating them with reference to data reliability. The method enhances the reliability of the underlying data and leads to maximum-likelihood estimates. It is illustrated by application to the UK national accounts for the period 1920-1990. The book includes a full set of estimates for this period, including runs of industrial data for the period 1948-1990, which are longer than those available from any other source. The statistical technique allows estimates of standard errors of the data to be calculated and verified; these are presented both for data in levels and for changes in variables over 1-, 2- and 5-year periods.

Table of Contents

Part I. The Theory of Data Reconciliation: 1. The reconciliation of national accounts

2. Basic issues in data reconciliation

3. Reconciliation without knowledge of data reliabilities

Part II. Application to UK National Accounts: 4. Patterns of autocorrelation

5. The data and their reliability, 1920-48

6. The data and their reliability, 1948-90

7. Sectoral income/expenditure and capital accounts

8. The results of the balancing exercise

Part III. Balanced Nationali Accounts for the United Kingdom: 1920-1990

Bibliography.