Resource and Market Projections for Forest Policy Development

by Adams, Darius Mainard; Haynes, Richard W.

• ISBN13: 9781402063084
• ISBN10: 1402063083
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2007-11-03
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

Long-range models that include product and resource detail are essential to meaningful analysis of both industry and resource sustainability. Taking this as it's central argument, this book provides essential reading to anyone interested in projecting the future of either the forest products market and/or the forest resource conditions. It is aimed at policy makers, model builders, researchers and graduate students who are building or using forest sector models, as well as at forest industry managers and analysts. While focusing on a specific modeling system - the US Timber Assessment models - the authors highlight the general elements that might comprise a forest-sector market model of any country or region. Approaches to policy analysis are also general and equally applicable to both national and multi-national forest policy development outside the US - particularly in relation to on-going efforts to formulate national programs of sustainable forestry. The text provides literature surveys on relevant modeling issues and policy concerns, and demonstrates the application of the modeling system using a "base case" 50 year projection and a small set of scenarios to illustrate, for example, the effects of changes in public harvest policies, global change, variations in investments in silviculture, and globalization. Darius Adams and Richard Haynes are widely recognized as leading experts in the forest sector modeling field.

Table of Contents

Preface and Acknowledgments	p. v
Contributors	p. xxi
Timber Assessments Supporting the Development of National Forestry Programs and Policy	p. 1
The Challenge of Developing Models to Support Forest Sector Policy Analysis	p. 3
Introduction	p. 3
Shaping the Assessment System	p. 6
Past studies, methods, and policy context	p. 6
Requirements of the RPA legislation	p. 10
Characteristics of the US forest sector	p. 11
Changing management paradigms on public and private lands	p. 14
General Model Attributes	p. 15
Methodological Considerations in Developing the Timber Assessment Projection System	p. 19
Introduction	p. 19
Approaches to Forest Policy Planning and Analysis	p. 21
Overview of the Assessment System	p. 24
RPA legislation, past analytical traditions, and model structure	p. 25
Outline of the Assessment System	p. 29
Some General Considerations in Forest Sector Model Development	p. 31
Static or dynamic models	p. 32
Number of market levels	p. 39
Resource detail	p. 42
Form and extent of spatial detail	p. 43
Exogenous or endogenous land base	p. 45
Exogenous or endogenous forest management investment	p. 47
Model Components	p. 53
Solid Wood-Timber Assessment Market Model (TAMM)	p. 55
Introduction	p. 55
General TAMM Structure	p. 56
Models of Solid Wood Market Components	p. 57
Demand for softwood lumber, softwood plywood, and OSB	p. 57
Demand for hardwood lumber	p. 63
Product supply relations and capacity adjustment	p. 64
Demand for logs and stumpage	p. 71
Sawtimber stumpage supply	p. 71
Nonstructural panels	p. 77
Transport costs	p. 78
Model Solution	p. 79
Market equilibrium	p. 79
Links to other model elements	p. 82
Review of Approaches to Modeling the Solid Wood Sector	p. 85
Short-term models versus long-term models	p. 86
Specification of demand	p. 88
Supply-side specification, log demand, and capital stock	p. 89
Spatial structure and trade	p. 91
Sawtimber supply	p. 92
North American Pulp & Paper Model (NAPAP)	p. 99
Introduction	p. 99
Historical context	p. 100
NAPAP Model-Origins and Objectives	p. 103
Background	p. 104
Specifications	p. 105
FPL pulpwood model	p. 106
NAPAP model	p. 108
Other Models and Related Literature	p. 108
Contemporaneous forest sector models	p. 110
Spatial equilibrium modeling	p. 111
Price-endogenous linear programming	p. 112
Techno-spatial equilibrium modeling	p. 113
Mathematical Structure of NAPAP Model	p. 114
Objective function	p. 114
Demand	p. 115
Supply	p. 120
Material balance constraints and prices	p. 129
Manufacturing capacity constraints	p. 130
Net manufacturing costs and input/output coefficients	p. 130
Recursive relationships	p. 162
Selected outputs	p. 165
Conclusions	p. 169
Methods for Projecting Areas of Private Timberland and Forest Cover Types	p. 175
Introduction	p. 176
History and Scope of Large-Scale Forest Area-Change Projections	p. 176
Structure of Land-Use and Land-Cover Modeling	p. 182
Land-Use Modeling	p. 184
Land-use theory	p. 184
Land-use model estimation	p. 188
Examples of regional models	p. 195
Projecting Land-Use Changes	p. 200
Projections of exogenous variables	p. 200
Projection methods for land uses	p. 201
Land-Cover Modeling	p. 203
Type transition theory	p. 204
Type transition model estimation	p. 205
Model Validation	p. 210
Summary	p. 215
Land Use Data	p. 223
Timber Inventory and Management-ATLAS	p. 229
Introduction	p. 229
ATLAS Structure and Linkage to Other Assessment System Elements	p. 230
Inventory strata and inventory data	p. 232
Growing stock removals and harvest requests	p. 235
Timberland area and forest type change	p. 236
Management intensity	p. 237
Modeling forest growth	p. 240
Modeling yields under different harvesting methods/silvicultural regimes	p. 247
Management Investment	p. 251
Other Approaches to Inventory Projection	p. 256
Exogenous Assumptions-Framing the Base Case and Scenarios	p. 265
Introduction	p. 265
Exogenous Variables in the Assessment System	p. 268
Macroeconomic activity	p. 273
International trade in forest products	p. 278
Timber supply from public lands	p. 283
Adjustments for sources of harvests and removals	p. 284
Model Solution, Validation, and Control	p. 289
Introduction	p. 289
Linking Model Components and Model Solutions	p. 290
Model Validation	p. 294
Validation considerations for individual components	p. 296
In-sample forecast error measures in the full projection system	p. 297
Model Control	p. 302
Capacity adjustment	p. 303
Private stumpage supply behavior	p. 303
The Gauss-Seidel Method for Iterative Solution of Systems of Equations	p. 306
Projections and Scenarios	p. 319
Base Case Projection	p. 321
Introduction	p. 321
Land Base and Cover Type Changes	p. 322
Timber Resource Trends	p. 327
Softwoods	p. 332
Hardwoods	p. 336
Forest Products Markets	p. 337
Softwood harvest	p. 338
Hardwood harvest	p. 344
Prices	p. 345
Canadian Production and Harvest	p. 347
Evolving Views of the Future of the US Forest Sector	p. 353
Introduction	p. 354
Visions of 2000	p. 359
The Uncertain Nature of Assumptions	p. 361
Population	p. 361
National forest timber harvest	p. 362
Trade assumptions	p. 363
Housing Starts	p. 364
How Have our Views of the Future Changed Over the Last 50 Years?	p. 365
Lumber and plywood production	p. 365
Timber harvest	p. 368
Improving the Treatment of Prices	p. 371
Stumpage price projections	p. 376
Closing	p. 379
The Impact of Public Harvest in the USA on North American Timber and Product Markets	p. 381
Introduction	p. 381
Structure of Public Timber Sales Programs	p. 383
A Counterfactual Simulation for Western Harvest, 1990-1996	p. 385
Simulated Market Impacts of Thinning on Western Public Lands	p. 388
Discussion	p. 394
Public Harvest Policy and the Assessment System	p. 395
The Role of Private Management Investment in Long-Term Supply	p. 399
Introduction	p. 399
Historical Trends and Behavior in Private Management Investment in the USA	p. 400
Private Management Investment in the Timber Assessment Projection System	p. 405
Alternative Modeling Approaches	p. 406
Scenarios of Future Management Investment	p. 410
National fixed management intensity and cover type scenario	p. 410
Constant Southern pine plantations scenario	p. 411
Simulation results	p. 411
Discussion	p. 417
Globalization and World Trade	p. 419
Introduction	p. 419
Importance of Globalization and Trade	p. 421
Two RPA Timber Assessment Case Studies	p. 426
Comparison of GFPM to the Timber Assessment Projection System	p. 431
RPA Timber Assessment in GFPM Context	p. 433
Effects of Exchange Rates in GFPM	p. 441
Conclusions and Planned Applications of GFPM	p. 443
The Impacts of Climate Change on Forestry	p. 449
Introduction	p. 449
The RPA-Forest Service Policy Analysis	p. 450
Climate change analyses within the RPA Resource Assessments	p. 451
Enhancing the Timber Policy Modeling Framework for Climate Change Analyses in the 1980s	p. 452
Modeling forest growth and yield in the forest sector model	p. 452
Modeling the ecological dynamics of forests	p. 454
Linking climate scenarios to ecological models and forest sector models: a modeling framework	p. 455
Projecting Climate Change, Ecological Impacts, and Forest Sector Impacts: The Static Analysis in the 1993 RPA Timber Assessment	p. 457
Climate change impacts on forest productivity	p. 458
Forest sector impacts as modeled by TEM-Timber Assessment Projection System	p. 460
Projecting Climate Change, Ecological Impacts, and Forest Sector Impacts: The Transient Analysis in the 2005 RPA Timber Assessment	p. 466
Ecological response	p. 467
Results of TEM-Timber Assessment Projection System analyses	p. 468
Forest Sector Market Models with Intertemporal Optimization	p. 469
FASOM	p. 469
Ecological models incorporating species distributional shifts	p. 470
Analysis of large-scale forest diebacks and the forest sector response	p. 471
Global Trade and Climate Change Impacts	p. 474
Global trade and shifts in vegetation carbon	p. 476
Future price insight and climate change responses in the forest sector	p. 478
Climate Scenarios and Ecological Models: Future Directions	p. 479
Ecological effects of climate change on forests	p. 481
Land-use modeling and climate change	p. 482
Incorporating uncertainty into the analyses	p. 483
Conclusions	p. 484
Projecting Technological Change	p. 489
Introduction	p. 489
Techniques for projecting technological change	p. 490
Technological Change in Sawtimber Harvesting	p. 493
Technological Change in Producing Softwood Lumber	p. 495
Technological Change in Producing Softwood Plywood	p. 497
Technological Change in Producing OSB	p. 501
Technological Change in Making Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard	p. 502
Technology Change in Use of Solid-Wood Products in Major End Uses	p. 505
Impacts of Accelerated Softwood Lumber Recovery Improvements	p. 506
Conclusions	p. 508
Long-Term Views of the US Land Base	p. 513
Introduction	p. 514
Base Case Summary	p. 514
Land base and cover type changes	p. 515
Examples of Alternative Land-Use Projections	p. 522
Land-use and forest-cover scenarios	p. 523
Land-Use and Land-Cover Dynamics: Influences of Natural and Human Factors in Alternative Futures	p. 528
Summary and Conclusions	p. 536
Lessons Learned from 25 Years of Forest Sector Modeling	p. 543
The Utility of Forest Sector Models in Addressing Forest Policy Questions	p. 545
Introduction	p. 545
Sector Model Applications to Current Policy Issues	p. 546
Key Developments for Policy Analysis in the Assessment System	p. 551
Adopting a mixed model format	p. 551
Expanding regional detail	p. 552
Adding timber management detail	p. 553
Using myopic econometric models	p. 554
Working with decision-makers	p. 555
Scale, science, specificity, and selectivity	p. 556
Glossary	p. 561
Common and Scientific Names of Species	p. 579
Acronym List	p. 582
Index	p. 585
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