The Right Decision A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory

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  • Edition: 1st
  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 2009-11-19
  • Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education

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When it comes to making the rightdecision, don't leave it up to chance Professor and mathematician James Stein demystifiesDecision Theory and shows you how you canapply the principles of this exciting new field of mathematicsto help you make the right decisions in allareas of your life.The Right Decisionis peppered withintriguing 'Decision Exercises' to make complicatedideas seem simple, revolutionizing the way youthink and make choices.Stay in a predictable job with little advancement ortake a riskier one with more money? Have surgery orwait? Remain in a current relationship or take a chanceon another person? Author James Stein argues thatthere is a right decision to these and all other questionsand he gives you the tools you need tomake the right one no matter what.

Author Biography

James Stein is a Yale graduate who received both his M.A. and Ph.D at U.C. Berkeley, is Professor of Mathematics at California State University, past member of the enormously prestigious Institute of Advanced Studies at Princeton (where Oppenheimer held the physics chair formerly held by Einstein and became the head of the Institute) and co-author of two other books. He is also the author of the soon-to-be-published book, How Math Explains the World (Harper-Collins 2008) which is scheduled for an initial print run of 50,000; translation rights have already been sold in a number of countries. .

Table of Contents

Preface: Making the Right Movesp. v
The Basics of Decision Theoryp. 1
You Are What You Decidep. 3
Creating the Menup. 13
What's in it for Me? Determining Your Payoffsp. 25
When the Crystal Ball is Cloudyp. 39
Dumping the Losers: The Admissibility Criterionp. 51
Worst-Case Scenarios: The Minimax Criterionp. 61
In the Long Run: The Bayes' Criterionp. 73
Taking the Plunge: The Maximax Criterionp. 85
Which Club to Usep. 97
What You Don't Know Can Hurt Youp. 105
The Balance of Powerp. 125
People Who Need Peoplep. 135
Hurts So Goodp. 145
The Quizzesp. 155
Indexp. 239
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