The Right Decision A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory

by Stein, James

• ISBN13: 9780071614191
• ISBN10: 0071614192
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2009-11-19
• Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education

Summary

When it comes to making the rightdecision, don't leave it up to chance Professor and mathematician James Stein demystifiesDecision Theory and shows you how you canapply the principles of this exciting new field of mathematicsto help you make the right decisions in allareas of your life.The Right Decisionis peppered withintriguing 'Decision Exercises' to make complicatedideas seem simple, revolutionizing the way youthink and make choices.Stay in a predictable job with little advancement ortake a riskier one with more money? Have surgery orwait? Remain in a current relationship or take a chanceon another person? Author James Stein argues thatthere is a right decision to these and all other questionsand he gives you the tools you need tomake the right one no matter what.

Author Biography

James Stein is a Yale graduate who received both his M.A. and Ph.D at U.C. Berkeley, is Professor of Mathematics at California State University, past member of the enormously prestigious Institute of Advanced Studies at Princeton (where Oppenheimer held the physics chair formerly held by Einstein and became the head of the Institute) and co-author of two other books. He is also the author of the soon-to-be-published book, How Math Explains the World (Harper-Collins 2008) which is scheduled for an initial print run of 50,000; translation rights have already been sold in a number of countries. .

Table of Contents

Preface: Making the Right Moves	p. v
The Basics of Decision Theory	p. 1
You Are What You Decide	p. 3
Creating the Menu	p. 13
What's in it for Me? Determining Your Payoffs	p. 25
When the Crystal Ball is Cloudy	p. 39
Dumping the Losers: The Admissibility Criterion	p. 51
Worst-Case Scenarios: The Minimax Criterion	p. 61
In the Long Run: The Bayes' Criterion	p. 73
Taking the Plunge: The Maximax Criterion	p. 85
Which Club to Use	p. 97
What You Don't Know Can Hurt You	p. 105
The Balance of Power	p. 125
People Who Need People	p. 135
Hurts So Good	p. 145
The Quizzes	p. 155
Index	p. 239
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