Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, 3rd Edition

by Yacov Y. Haimes (Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville)

• ISBN13: 9780470422472
• ISBN10: 0470422475
• Format: eBook
• Copyright: 2009-01-01
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

Integrates the art and science of risk analysis. Clearly shows how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. Presents basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible. Incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion. An accompanying web site will offer 200 example problems and case studies.

Table of Contents

Preface

Acknowledgments

FUNDAMENTALS OF RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, AND MANAGEMENT.

The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis.

Introduction

Systems Engineering

Risk Assessment and Management

Concept Road Map: The Farmer's Dilemma

Epilogue

References

The Role of Modeling in the Risk Analysis Process.

Introduction

The Risk Assessment and Management Process

Information, Intelligence, and Models

The Building Blocks of Mathematical Models

The Farmer's Dilemma Revisited

Example Problems

References

Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling.

Hierarchical Aspects

Hierarchical Overlapping Coordination

Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)

Hierarchical Holographic Modeling and the Theory of Scenario Structuring

Adaptive Multiplayer HHM (AMP-HHM) Game

Water Resource System

Sustainable Development

HHM in a System Acquisition Project

Software Acquisition

Hardening the Water Supply Infrastructure

Risk Assessment and Management for Support of Operations Other Than War

Automated Highway System

Food-Poisoning Scenarios

References

Decision Analysis.

Introduction

Decision Rules Under Uncertainty

Decision Trees

Decision Matrix

The Fractile Method

Triangular Distribution

Influence Diagrams

Population Dynamics Models

Phantom System Models

Example Problems

References

Multiobjective Trade-Off Analysis.

Introduction

Examples of Multiple Environmental Objectives

The Surrogate Worth Trade-off (SWT) Method

Characterizing a Proper Noninferior Solution

The Surrogate Worth Trade-off Method and the Utility

Function Approach

Example Problems

Summary

References

Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis.

Introduction

Sensitivity, Responsivity, Stability, and Irreversibility

Uncertainties Due to Errors in Modeling

Characterization of Modeling Errors

Uncertainty Taxonomy

The Uncertainty Sensitivity Index Method

Formulation of the Multiobjective Optimization Problem

A Robust Algorithm of the USIM

Integration of the USIM with Parameter Optimization at the Design Stage

Conclusions

References

Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management

Introduction

Past Efforts in Risk Filtering and Ranking

Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management A Methodological Framework

Case Study: An Operation Other Than War

Summary

References

ADVANCES IN RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, AND MANAGEMENT.

Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value.

Introduction

Risk of Extreme Events

The Fallacy of the Expected Value

The Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method

General Formulation of the PMRM

Summary of the PMRM

Illustrative Example

Analysis of Dam Failure and Extreme Floods Through the PMRM

Example Problems

Summary

References

Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis.

Introduction

Methodological Approach

Differences Between Single- and Multiple-Objective Decision Trees

Summary

Example Problems

References

Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method.

Introduction

Impact Analysis

The Multiobjective, Multistage Impact Analysis Method: An Overview

Combining the PMRM and the MMIAM

Relating Multiobjective Decision Trees to the Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method

Example Problems

Epilogue

References

Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM.

A Review of the Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method

Statistics of Extremes

Incorporating the Statistics of Extremes into the PMRM

Sensitivity Analysis of the Approximation of f₄ (ò)

Generalized Quantification of Risk of Extreme Events

Summary

Example Problems

References

Bayesian Analysis and the Prediction of Chemical Carcinogenicity.

Background

Calculating Sensitivity and Specificity

Battery Selection

Determining the Performance (Predictivity and Selectivity) of the Test Battery

Trade-offs and Policy Analysis

References

Fault Trees.

Introduction

Basic Fault-Tree Analysis

Reliability and Fault-Tree Analysis

Minimal Cut Sets

The Distribution Analyzer and Risk Evaluator Using Fault Trees

Extreme Events in Fault-Tree Analysis

An Example Problem Based on a Case Study

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA); Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)

Event Trees.

Example Problems

References

Multiobjective Statistical Method.

Introduction

Mathematical Formulation of the Interior Drainage Problem

Formulation of the Optimization Problem

The Multiobjective Statistical Method (MSM): Step-by-Step

The Surrogate Worth Trade-off (SWT) Method

Multiple Objectives

Applying the MSM

Example Problems

References

Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management.

Introduction

Definitions and Principles of Project Risk Management

Project Risk Management Methods

Aircraft Development Example

Quantitative Risk Assessment and Management of Software Acquisition

Critical Factors That Affect Software Nontechnical Risk

Basis for Variances in Cost Estimation

Discrete Dynamic Modeling

Summary

References

Applying Risk Analysis to Space Missions.

Introduction

Overview of Selected Space Missions

Risk Analysis Examples for Selected Space Missions

Hierarchical Holographic Modeling

Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management

Epilogue

References

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Terrorism.

Overview

On the Definition of Vulnerabilities in Measuring Risks to Infrastructures

Risk-Based Methodology for Scenario Tracking, Intelligence Gathering, and Analysis for Countering Terrorism

Homeland Security Preparedness: Balancing Protection with Resilience in Emergent Systems

Risk of Terrorism to Information Technology and to Critical Interdependent Infrastructures

References

Inoperability Input-Output Model and Its Derivatives for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors.

Overview

Background: The Original Leontief I/O Model

Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM)

Regimes of Recovery

Supporting Databases for IIM Analysis

National and Regional Databases for IIM Analysis

Regional Input-Output Multiplier System (RIMS II)

Development of IIM and Its Derivatives

The Dynamic IIM

Practical Uses of IIM

Uncertainty IIM

Example Problems

Summary

References

Case Studies.

A Risk-Based Input-Output Methodology for Measuring the Effects of the August 2003 Northeast Blackout

Systemic Valuation of Strategic Preparedness Through Applying the Inoperability Input-Output Model with Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina

Ex Post Analysis Using the IIM of the September 11, 2001 Attack on the US

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

The Statistics of Extreme Events and 6-Sigma Capability

References

Appendix: Optimization Techniques

A.1 Introduction to Modeling and Optimization

A.2 Classical Unconstrained Optimization Problems

A.3 Classical Equality Constraint Problem

A.4 Newton-Raphson Method

A.5 Linear Programming

A.6 Dynamic Programming

A.7 Generalized Nonlinear Programming

A.8 Multiobjective Decision Trees

A.9 Derivation of the Expected Value of a Log-normal Distribution

A.10 Derivation of the Conditional Expected Value of a Log-normal Distribution

A.11 Triangular Distribution: Unconditional and Conditional Expected Values

A.12 Standard Normal Distribution Probability Table

References

Index

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