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9780419200307

Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Property

by
  • ISBN13:

    9780419200307

  • ISBN10:

    0419200304

  • Edition: 2nd
  • Format: Nonspecific Binding
  • Copyright: 1996-09-01
  • Publisher: Routledge

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Summary

Provides undergraduates in surveying and property professionals with a clear practical explanation of the various management techniques to improve their property development decisions.

Table of Contents

Uncertainty, risk and the process of property development
Intrduction
The process of property development: Acquisition, production and disposal
Time
Attitudes to risk
Information
Uncertainty and risk
Development appraisal: The variables
Sources of data
Sensitivity and uncertainty
References
Decisions and decision-making
Introduction: The formal approach
Complexity
Kinds of decision
Models
Decision criteria: The pay-off table
The maximin approach
The maximax approach
The Hurwicz approach
Savage's regret table
Decision Trees
Summary
Assessing risk and uncertainty
Introduction
Probability: The language of probability
Measuring probability
How probabilities can be assessed
The concept of expectation
Utility: The concept of utility
Describing utility
Types and characteristics of utility functions
Sensitivity and simulation: Simulation, models and sensitivity analysis
Models and sensitivity analysis
The Monte Carlo method
Conclusion
References
Decision methods in development appraisal
Introduction
Analysis using probability distributions: The use of subjective probabilities
Probability distributions and time: Evaluating uncertain cash flows over time
Advances approached to development appraisal
Conclusion
References
Computerized development appraisal
Case study: Monte Carlo simulation in development appraisal
Introduction
Case study: general discussion: Variability in the model
Sensitivity analysis
Identification of probabilistic variables
Two case studies: Case 1: distributions
Some general comments
Case 1: initial analysis
Repetition, stability and variability: testing the model
Interpretations: Case 1: Model's performance
Measures of central tendency: the average performance of the model
Sensitivity analysis in simulation
Case 2: changing the shape of the probability distributions
Case study conclusions
Conclusion: simulation in development process
References
Appendix 1 The characteristics of the normal distribution
Bibliography
Index
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

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