Introduction | p. ix |
Word Hazards: Statements, Ambiguity, and Vagueness | p. 1 |
A Logical Digression: Propositional Attitudes | p. 2 |
Complex Passages: Descriptions, Explanations, and Arguments | p. 5 |
Odd Words | p. 6 |
A Logical Digression: How Not to Distinguish Induction from Deduction, or Why the Valid/Inductive Distinction Is Better | p. 8 |
Finding Arguments | p. 13 |
Grounding Statements in Fact: Observation, Testimony, and Other Arguments Based on Criteria | p. 17 |
Criteria for Evaluating Observation Statements | p. 17 |
Criteria for Evaluating Testimony | p. 18 |
Deduction: Categorical Syllogisms | p. 21 |
Conversion, Obversion, Contraposition | p. 22 |
Categorical Syllogisms | p. 24 |
A Logical Digression: Venn Diagrams | p. 27 |
A Logical Digression: Conditional Validity | p. 33 |
Odd Words | p. 35 |
Enthymemes | p. 36 |
Arguments Based on Propositions | p. 39 |
Statement Forms | p. 39 |
A Logical Digression: Symbols and Truth Table Definitions | p. 40 |
Argument Forms | p. 41 |
A Logical Digression: Truth Tables for Testing the Validity of Arguments | p. 43 |
Odd Words: Tautology, Contradiction, Contingent Statement | p. 47 |
Logical Equivalences | p. 49 |
A Logical Digression: Demonstrating the Equivalences with Truth Tables | p. 51 |
Probability Calculations | p. 57 |
Theories of Probability | p. 57 |
Odd Words: Relative Frequency and Subjective Theories | p. 58 |
Rules of Probability | p. 59 |
Generalizations and Particularizations | p. 65 |
Generalization Arguments | p. 65 |
A Logical Digression: Surveys and Opinion Polls | p. 68 |
Particularization Arguments | p. 68 |
Analogical Arguments | p. 71 |
Analogical Arguments | p. 71 |
A Logical Digression: Analogical Arguments versus Generalization and Particularization Arguments | p. 74 |
Evaluating Hypotheses: Inference to Best Explanation | p. 75 |
Likelihood | p. 76 |
Explanatory Power | p. 78 |
Simplicity | p. 78 |
Novelty | p. 79 |
Appropriate Explanatory Content | p. 80 |
Summary of Factors in Evaluating Explanatory Inferences | p. 80 |
Explanatory Inferences, Confirmation, Disconfirmation, and Bayes's Theorem | p. 81 |
Causal Inferences | p. 85 |
Mill's Methods of Causal Inference | p. 85 |
Probabilistic Method of Causal Inference | p. 88 |
Counterfactual Method of Causal Inference | p. 89 |
Counterfactual Reasoning | p. 91 |
Supporting Counterfactual Claims | p. 91 |
A Logical Digression: Counterfactual Fallacies | p. 94 |
Decisions under Risk | p. 97 |
Utility | p. 98 |
Decision Making under Risk with One Factor | p. 98 |
Decision Making under Risk with Multiple Factors | p. 99 |
Decisions under Uncertainty | p. 103 |
Universal Principles for Decisions under Uncertainty | p. 104 |
Further Principles for Decisions under Multilateral Uncertainty | p. 105 |
Further Principles for Decisions under Unilateral Uncertainty | p. 108 |
Informal Fallacies | p. 111 |
Fallacies of Ambiguity | p. 111 |
Fallacies of Relevance | p. 114 |
Fallacies of Presumption | p. 120 |
Fallacies of Weak Induction | p. 122 |
Critical Writing: An Audience-Centered Approach to Critical Thinking | p. 127 |
Examining Critical Writing: A Rhetorical Approach | p. 128 |
Selecting the Appropriate Forum | p. 129 |
Establishing Presentation Objectives | p. 132 |
Establishing Initial Credibility | p. 134 |
Screening Content for Inclusion | p. 136 |
Considering Sources of Information | p. 137 |
Identifying Content Areas | p. 138 |
Grouping Information for Readers | p. 140 |
Organizing Information within the Forum | p. 142 |
Externalizing Ideas: A Final Perspective | p. 146 |
Bibliography | p. 147 |
Index | p. 149 |
About the Authors | p. 155 |
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