Russia Transformed: Developing Popular Support for a New Regime

by Richard Rose , William Mishler , Neil Munro

• ISBN13: 9780521692410
• ISBN10: 0521692415
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2006-12-11
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

Since the fall of communism Russia has undergone a treble transformation of its political, social and economic system. The government is an autocracy in which the Kremlin manages elections and administers the law to suit its own ends. It does not provide the democracy that most citizens desire. Given a contradiction between what Russians want and what they get, do they support their government and, if so, why? Using the New Russia Barometer - a unique set of public opinion surveys from 1992 to 2005 - this book shows that it is the passage of time that has been most important in developing support for the new regime. Although there remains great dissatisfaction with the regime's corruption, it has become accepted as a lesser evil to alternatives. The government appears stable today, but will be challenged by constitutional term limits forcing President Putin to leave office in 2008.

Author Biography

Richard Rose is Director of the Centre for the Study of Public Policy at the University of Aberdeen William Mishler is a Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Arizona, and Visiting Professor, Centre for the Study of Public Policy at the University of Aberdeen Neil Munro is a Senior Fellow in the Centre for the Study of Public Policy at the University of Aberdeen

Table of Contents

List of figures	p. ix
List of tables	p. x
Acknowledgments	p. xi
Introduction: Transformation and its aftermath	p. 1
Transforming institutions and popular support	p. 3
Top-down and bottom-up approaches to transformation	p. 7
Analyzing regime support	p. 12
Time matters: the dynamics of regime support	p. 16
Maintaining support within a steady-state regime	p. 18
Dynamic challenges	p. 22
Political re-learning in a new regime	p. 24
The supply of regimes: democratic and autocratic	p. 29
Defining regimes in two dimensions	p. 30
Differentiating regimes that elites supply	p. 33
Contrasting dynamics of regimes	p. 38
A changing supply of Russian regimes	p. 49
An alternation of despotisms	p. 51
Mass response: coexisting with despotism	p. 56
From reform to transformation and a new equilibrium?	p. 59
Uncertainties of transformation: a view from the bottom	p. 69
From controlled to free inquiry	p. 70
Values amidst uncertainty	p. 75
Coping strategies	p. 78
Changing levels of regime support	p. 86
Variable support for the regime as it is	p. 87
Dispersed support for alternative regimes	p. 94
Theories of why Russians differ	p. 99
Social structure and the evaluation of regimes	p. 106
Social differences are inevitable; their influence is not	p. 107
Individuals age and society rejuvenates	p. 114
Combining the effects of social structure	p. 118
The influence of political values and performance	p. 124
Democracy an ideal, not the Russian reality	p. 126
The legacy of the past	p. 130
Performance of a plebiscitarian regime	p. 135
Political performance matters	p. 140
Finding the economic influences that matter	p. 147
Downs and ups of the national economy	p. 150
Downs and ups of the household economy	p. 155
Politics pervasive; economic influences contingent	p. 160
The impact of the passage of time	p. 166
Stable and variable influences	p. 168
Expectations encourage resigned acceptance	p. 172
The cumulative impact of inertia	p. 177
What could challenge the new equilibrium?	p. 185
Likelihoods and uncertainties	p. 186
Risks	p. 189
2008: changing leaders or changing regimes?	p. 192
New Russia Barometer samples	p. 202
Coding of variables	p. 208
References	p. 211
Index	p. 223
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