School-Based Drug Prevention What Kind of Drugs USe does it Prevent?

by Caulkins, Jonathan P.; Pacula, Rosalie; Paddock, Susan; Chiesa, James

• ISBN13: 9780833030825
• ISBN10: 0833030825
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-01-29
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Estimates the amount of social benefit that prevention programs generate through reductions in the use of cocaine, marijuana, alcohol, and tabacco

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Summary	xv
Acknowledgments	xxiii
Introduction	1	(10)
Are Prevention's Effects Large Enough to Be Worth the Effort?	1	(1)
Background and Goals of This Study	2	(2)
Our Approach: Its Strengths and Weaknesses	4	(6)
The Mathematical Model	5	(1)
Data Sources	6	(4)
Organization of This Report	10	(1)
Social Benefit and Cost Results	11	(26)
How We Estimate Prevention's Social Benefits	11	(9)
Lifetime Drug Use per Person in the Absence of Prevention	12	(3)
Percentage Reduction in Lifetime Use Expected from School-Based Prevention	15	(2)
Adjustments to Reduction in Use	17	(2)
Social Cost per Unit of Use	19	(1)
Social Benefit Results	20	(4)
School-Based Prevention's Social Costs	24	(2)
Sensitivity of Findings to Variations in Assumptions	26	(5)
Other Results of Interest	31	(1)
Conclusions and Discussion	32	(5)
Lifetime Drug Consumption Without Prevention	37	(18)
How Much Do Users Consume over Their Lives?	37	(10)
Estimation Method 1: Dividing Consumption over an Historical Period by Initiation	38	(1)
Estimation Method 2: Creating a Lifetime Profile of Consumption by Totaling Use Across Respondents of Different Ages	39	(3)
Estimation Method 3: Accounting for Evolving Prevalence Patterns Across the Population	42	(1)
Results of Applying the Three Estimation Methods to Marijuana Use	43	(1)
Results of Applying the Three Estimation Methods to Tobacco Use	44	(1)
Results of Applying the Three Estimation Methods to Alcohol Use	45	(2)
Summary	47	(1)
What Is the Probability That Someone Will Become a User?	47	(5)
Estimating Initiation of Cocaine Use	50	(1)
Estimating Initiation of Marijuana Use	51	(1)
Estimating Initiation of Tobacco Use	51	(1)
Estimating Initiation of Alcohol Use	51	(1)
Summary	52	(1)
How Should Present and Future Quantities Be Compared? (The Discount Factor)	52	(3)
School-Based Prevention's Effectiveness at the End of the Program	55	(12)
Selection of Programs upon Which Composite Estimates Are Based	56	(2)
Measures of Effectiveness	58	(2)
Individual Program Effects	60	(4)
Aggregate Program Effects	64	(3)
School-Based Prevention's Effectiveness at Reducing Lifetime Drug Use	67	(20)
Measuring Decay of Short-Term Effect	68	(3)
Taking Account of Length of Initiation Delay	71	(7)
Translating Effectiveness Predictors to Results	78	(9)
Our Approach	79	(4)
Results	83	(4)
Adjustments to Prevention's Effectiveness	87	(8)
Causation Versus Correlation Qualifier	88	(1)
Scale-Up Qualifier	89	(1)
Social Multiplier	90	(3)
Market Multiplier	93	(2)
Social Costs of Drug Consumption	95	(70)
Estimating the Social Cost of Alcohol Use	96	(1)
Estimating the Social Cost of Tobacco Use	97	(1)
Estimating the Social Cost of Cocaine Use and Use of Illicit Drugs in General	98	(7)
Estimating the Social Cost of Marijuana Use	105	(3)
Summary	108	(5)
Appendix
A. Low, Medium, and High Estimates for the Ten Factors in the Prevention Model	113	(4)
B. Recoding Consumption Values from the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse	117	(4)
C. Program Descriptions	121	(6)
D. Aggregating Program Effectiveness Data	127	(12)
E. Program Effectiveness Decay	139	(16)
F. Effects On Lifetime Consumption	155	(10)
Bibliography	165