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Acknowledgments xiii
CHAPTER 1 Commodities and Their Current Stories 1
Jackpot Commodities 5
Neutral Commodities 26
Big Problem Commodities 37
Other Limited Opportunity Commodities 40
CHAPTER 2 Where to Invest: Stocks, Bonds, or Futures? 41
CHAPTER 3 Global Climate Shock Number One: Excess Snow and Ice 51
Salt 51
Snow Blowers 53
CHAPTER 4 Global Climate Shock Number Two: Flooding Mines 55
Metallurgical ("Met") Coal 56
Iron Ore 59
Copper 62
Silver 64
Aluminum 66
Nickel 68
Platinum 71
Palladium 75
Rare Earth Elements 78
Potash 80
Mining Equipment Makers 82
CHAPTER 5 Global Climate Shock Number Three: Farmland Droughts, Floods, and Frost 87
Sugar 88
Coffee 89
Cotton 90
Cocoa 91
Corn 92
Soybeans 93
Wheat 93
Oranges 94
Tying Together All of the Agricultural Commodities 95
Fertilizers 103
Seeds and Agricultural Chemicals 105
Farmland Equipment Makers 108
CHAPTER 6 Global Climate Shock Number Four: Hurricanes and Tornadoes 111
Independent Natural Gas Producers 111
Oil 117
Remaining Stocks to Benefit in Widespread Hurricanes 119
CHAPTER 7 Global Climate Shock Number Five: Drought-Induced Timberland Fires 123
CHAPTER 8 Real-Life Examples: Execution, Results, and Timing 125
Hurricane Katrina Example 125
Floods in Eastern Australia Example 128
Russian Drought Example 130
Blizzards in Northeastern United States Example 132
Cocoa Bean Supply Shock in Early 2011 133
A Word on Corn 135
The Rules of Extreme Weather–Based Investing 136
CHAPTER 9 Playing Both Sides of the Coin 145
Met Coal Example 147
Iron Ore Example 148
Copper Example 149
Farmland Droughts/Floods Example 149
Additional Pair Trades 150
CHAPTER 10 Basic Principles of Commodity Investing 155
Basic Supply and Demand 156
Understanding the Mathematics of Stock Prices and Cycles 157
Secular Rotation 160
Fundamental Rules to Live by with Commodity Investing 160
CHAPTER 11 Opportunities in the Bond Market 165
Opportunities in the Municipal Bond Market 178
CHAPTER 12 Opportunities in the Foreign Currency Exchange Market 181
Canadian Dollar 183
Australian Dollar 186
Other Commodity Currencies 187
CHAPTER 13 Basic Principles of Futures Market Investing 191
Exchange-Traded Funds 197
Final Thoughts 199
About the Author 201
Index 203
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