Seasonal Climate

by Troccoli, Alberto; Harrison, Mike; Anderson, David L. T.; Mason, Simon J.

• ISBN13: 9781402069901
• ISBN10: 1402069901
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2008-04-01
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown in scope and in aspiration to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard 'œcollection of proceedings'. The lack of a unified reference textbook covering both the science of seasonal to interannual predictions and real-world uses of the forecasts was the main driver for the effort placed into writing an amalgamated introductory book, each chapter of which has been thoroughly peer reviewed. Throughout, our objective has been to present a book accessible to people from diverse disciplines, both scientific and social, interested in this intriguing and fast emerging area.The fascination of seasonal climate forecasting, for which El Niño forecasting provides the prime basis, derives from its multi-faceted character. Not only does it pose exciting new scientific challenges for the climate community, but it is linked naturally to a great variety of key practical concerns, from security related issues, such as water resource management, food security, and disaster prediction and prevention, to health planning, agriculture management, energy supply, and tourism, to name but a few. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts are indeed becoming a most important element in certain policy/decision making systems, not least within the contexts of sustainable development and of climate change adaptation.

Table of Contents

Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Context	p. 1
Introduction	p. 3
Seasonal Forecasts in Decision Making	p. 13
The Production of Seasonal Climate Forecasts	p. 43
Overview of Seasonal Forecasting	p. 45
Ocean-Atmosphere Basis for Seasonal Climate Forecasting	p. 67
Getting the Coupled Model Ready at the Starting Blocks	p. 91
Modelling the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Coupled System	p. 127
Statistical Modelling	p. 163
Calibration and Assessment of Seasonal Climate Forecasts	p. 203
From Dynamical Model Predictions to Seasonal Climate Forecasts	p. 205
An Introduction to Probability Forecasting	p. 235
How Do We Know Whether Seasonal Climate Forecasts are Any Good?	p. 259
Developing Successful Application Strategies	p. 291
Communicating Seasonal Forecasts	p. 293
Building National and Specialised Climate Services	p. 315
Water, Health and Early Warnings	p. 351
The Future of Seasonal Climate Forecasting	p. 382
A Way Forward for Seasonal Climate Services	p. 384
Acronyms	p. 411
Glossary of Terms	p. 417
References	p. 435
Suggested Further Reading	p. 447
Index	p. 453
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