The Secrets of Economic Indicators Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities

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  • Edition: 3rd
  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 2012-07-24
  • Publisher: FT Press
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For years, investors, business strategists, and policymakers worldwide have turned to one book to help them translate the massive flow of economic data into knowledge for intelligent decision-making. The Wall Street Journalcalled this book "…the real deal," saying it "miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics." That book is Bernie Baumohl's classic best-seller The Secrets of Economic Indicators. Now, in a brand-new Third Edition, Baumohl has thoroughly updated his classic to reflect the latest US and foreign economic indicators, and brand-new insights into what all of today's leading indicators mean. Baumohl introduces dozens of new, forward-looking economic markers, including those that monitor small business plans, freight traffic shifts, web searches, and even gambling. He also presents several real-time foreign indicators for anticipating swings in European and Asian economies. He explains what's happened to the global and domestic U.S. economy in recent years, showing how financial crises impact investments, strategy, and economic indicators. New graphics more clearly illuminate how key indicators impact interest rates, bond and stock prices, and currency values; and hundreds of websites containing US and global economic indicators have been updated. This classic book has long been considered an invaluable resource by professionals who need to understand the true meaning of the latest economic trends. With this new edition, Bernie Baumohl has made it even more useful.

Author Biography

Bernard Baumohl, Chief Global Economist at The Economic Outlook Group, oversees its forecasts of economic trends and geopolitical risks. He also conducts seminars on how corporate leaders and investors can use forward-looking economic indicators to stay ahead of the business cycle. He has lectured on economics at New York University, Duke University, and the New York Institute of Finance.


Baumohl was also an award-winning TIME magazine economics reporter who covered Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and the White House. As an economist for European American Bank, he conducted research on the global economy. He also served as an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations. Baumohl has a Master’s degree in international affairs and economics from Columbia University.

Table of Contents

What's New in the Third Edition?p. xvii
Prefacep. xxi
The Lock-Upp. 1
U.S. Economic Indicatorsp. 6
International Economic Indicatorsp. 14
A Beginner's Guide: Understanding the Lingop. 19
Annual Ratesp. 19
Business Cyclep. 20
Consensus Surveysp. 22
Moving Averagep. 23
Nominal Dollars Versus Real Dollars (Also Known as Current Dollars Versus Constant Dollars)p. 24
Revisions and Benchmarksp. 24
Seasonal Adjustmentsp. 25
The Great Recession of 2008-2009p. 27
The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicatorsp. 31
Employment Situationp. 31
Job Openings and Labor Turnoverp. 49
Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurancep. 55
Help-Wanted Online Advertisingp. 59
Corporate Layoff and Hiring Announcementsp. 64
Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS)p. 70
ADP National Employment Reportp. 75
Consumer Spending and Confidence
Personal Income and Spendingp. 82
Retail Salesp. 93
E-Commerce Retail Salesp. 99
Weekly Chain Store Sales Reportsp. 102
Consumer Credit Outstandingp. 107
Consumer Confidence Indexp. 112
Survey of Consumer Sentimentp. 117
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Indexp. 120
Google Insightsp. 123
Las Vegas Gaming Revenuesp. 126
National Output and Inventories
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)p. 130
Durable Goods Ordersp. 148
Factory Ordersp. 155
Business Inventoriesp. 162
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilizationp. 170
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Surveyp. 181
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Surveyp. 188
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Business Barometer)p. 191
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)p. 196
Housing and Construction
Housing Starts and Building Permitsp. 204
Existing Home Salesp. 210
New Home Salesp. 217
Housing Market Index: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)p. 223
Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey and the National Delinquency Surveyp. 227
Construction Spendingp. 232
The Federal Reserve
Regional Federal Reserve Bank Reportsp. 235
Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Empire State Manufacturing Surveyp. 236
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Business Outlook Surveyp. 242
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Manufacturing Survey of the 10th Districtp. 246
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond: Manufacturing Activity in the Fifth Districtp. 249
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: National Activity Index (CFNAI)p. 252
The Federal Reserve Board's Beige Bookp. 255
The Federal Open Market Committee Statementp. 260
Foreign Trade
International Trade in Goods and Servicesp. 269
Current Account Balance (U.S. International Transactions)p. 283
Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States (Federal Reserve Board)p. 291
Treasury International Capital (TIC) Systemp. 296
Prices, Productivity, and Wages
Consumer Price Index (CPI)p. 305
Producer Price Index (PPI)p. 317
Employment Cost Indexp. 323
Import and Export Pricesp. 328
Productivity and Costsp. 335
Employer Costs for Employee Compensationp. 342
Real Earningsp. 346
Yield Curvep. 349
Other Noteworthy U.S. Economic Indicators
Credit Manager's Indexp. 355
Small Business Economic Trendsp. 356
Cass Freight Indexp. 357
Weekly Railroad Traffic (freight)p. 358
Architecture Billings Indexp. 359
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Indexp. 360
International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important?p. 361
German Industrial Productionp. 364
German TFO Business Climate Indexp. 366
German Consumer Price Index (CPI)p. 368
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentimentp. 371
Japan Industrial Productionp. 373
Japan's Tankan Surveyp. 378
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) by Country and Regionp. 384
OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI)p. 393
China Industrial Productionp. 396
India: Industrial Production and Inflationp. 403
Brazil's Industrial Production and the DBC-Br Economic Activity Indexp. 410
Canada: International Merchandise Trade, Composite Leading Indicators, Ivey Purchasing Managers Indexp. 416
Australia: Consumer Prices, Retail Trade, International Tradep. 422
Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicatorsp. 429
Schedule of Releasesp. 429
Economic Newsp. 429
Free Mobile Phone Apps on the Economyp. 429
The U.S. Economyp. 430
Consumer Behaviorp. 431
Employment Conditionsp. 432
Home Sales and Construction Activityp. 433
International Tradep. 433
Inflation Pressuresp. 434
Federal Reserve Reportsp. 434
The Federal Budgetp. 435
Interest Ratesp. 435
Money and Creditp. 436
U.S. Dollarp. 436
One-Stop Shopping for Economic Statisticsp. 436
Other Useful Economic Sources on the Webp. 437
Unconventional Economic Indicatorsp. 437
Best Web Sites for International Economic Indicatorsp. 439
Calendar of Releases for Foreign Economic Datap. 439
Sources of Global Economic Newsp. 439
Economic Statistics from Other Countriesp. 439
Best Megasites for International Economic Statisticsp. 444
Indexp. 447
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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