The Secrets of Economic Indicators Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities

by Baumohl, Bernard

• ISBN13: 9780132932073
• ISBN10: 0132932075
• Edition: 3rd
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2012-07-24
• Publisher: FT Press

Summary

For years, investors, business strategists, and policymakers worldwide have turned to one book to help them translate the massive flow of economic data into knowledge for intelligent decision-making. The Wall Street Journalcalled this book "…the real deal," saying it "miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics." That book is Bernie Baumohl's classic best-seller The Secrets of Economic Indicators. Now, in a brand-new Third Edition, Baumohl has thoroughly updated his classic to reflect the latest US and foreign economic indicators, and brand-new insights into what all of today's leading indicators mean. Baumohl introduces dozens of new, forward-looking economic markers, including those that monitor small business plans, freight traffic shifts, web searches, and even gambling. He also presents several real-time foreign indicators for anticipating swings in European and Asian economies. He explains what's happened to the global and domestic U.S. economy in recent years, showing how financial crises impact investments, strategy, and economic indicators. New graphics more clearly illuminate how key indicators impact interest rates, bond and stock prices, and currency values; and hundreds of websites containing US and global economic indicators have been updated. This classic book has long been considered an invaluable resource by professionals who need to understand the true meaning of the latest economic trends. With this new edition, Bernie Baumohl has made it even more useful.

Author Biography

Bernard Baumohl, Chief Global Economist at The Economic Outlook Group, oversees its forecasts of economic trends and geopolitical risks. He also conducts seminars on how corporate leaders and investors can use forward-looking economic indicators to stay ahead of the business cycle. He has lectured on economics at New York University, Duke University, and the New York Institute of Finance.

 

Baumohl was also an award-winning TIME magazine economics reporter who covered Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and the White House. As an economist for European American Bank, he conducted research on the global economy. He also served as an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations. Baumohl has a Master’s degree in international affairs and economics from Columbia University.

Table of Contents

What's New in the Third Edition?	p. xvii
Preface	p. xxi
The Lock-Up	p. 1
U.S. Economic Indicators	p. 6
International Economic Indicators	p. 14
A Beginner's Guide: Understanding the Lingo	p. 19
Annual Rates	p. 19
Business Cycle	p. 20
Consensus Surveys	p. 22
Moving Average	p. 23
Nominal Dollars Versus Real Dollars (Also Known as Current Dollars Versus Constant Dollars)	p. 24
Revisions and Benchmarks	p. 24
Seasonal Adjustments	p. 25
The Great Recession of 2008-2009	p. 27
The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators	p. 31
Employment
Employment Situation	p. 31
Job Openings and Labor Turnover	p. 49
Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance	p. 55
Help-Wanted Online Advertising	p. 59
Corporate Layoff and Hiring Announcements	p. 64
Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS)	p. 70
ADP National Employment Report	p. 75
Consumer Spending and Confidence
Personal Income and Spending	p. 82
Retail Sales	p. 93
E-Commerce Retail Sales	p. 99
Weekly Chain Store Sales Reports	p. 102
Consumer Credit Outstanding	p. 107
Consumer Confidence Index	p. 112
Survey of Consumer Sentiment	p. 117
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index	p. 120
Google Insights	p. 123
Las Vegas Gaming Revenues	p. 126
National Output and Inventories
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	p. 130
Durable Goods Orders	p. 148
Factory Orders	p. 155
Business Inventories	p. 162
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization	p. 170
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Survey	p. 181
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey	p. 188
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Business Barometer)	p. 191
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)	p. 196
Housing and Construction
Housing Starts and Building Permits	p. 204
Existing Home Sales	p. 210
New Home Sales	p. 217
Housing Market Index: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)	p. 223
Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey and the National Delinquency Survey	p. 227
Construction Spending	p. 232
The Federal Reserve
Regional Federal Reserve Bank Reports	p. 235
Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Empire State Manufacturing Survey	p. 236
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Business Outlook Survey	p. 242
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Manufacturing Survey of the 10th District	p. 246
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond: Manufacturing Activity in the Fifth District	p. 249
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: National Activity Index (CFNAI)	p. 252
The Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book	p. 255
The Federal Open Market Committee Statement	p. 260
Foreign Trade
International Trade in Goods and Services	p. 269
Current Account Balance (U.S. International Transactions)	p. 283
Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States (Federal Reserve Board)	p. 291
Treasury International Capital (TIC) System	p. 296
Prices, Productivity, and Wages
Consumer Price Index (CPI)	p. 305
Producer Price Index (PPI)	p. 317
Employment Cost Index	p. 323
Import and Export Prices	p. 328
Productivity and Costs	p. 335
Employer Costs for Employee Compensation	p. 342
Real Earnings	p. 346
Yield Curve	p. 349
Other Noteworthy U.S. Economic Indicators
Credit Manager's Index	p. 355
Small Business Economic Trends	p. 356
Cass Freight Index	p. 357
Weekly Railroad Traffic (freight)	p. 358
Architecture Billings Index	p. 359
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index	p. 360
International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important?	p. 361
German Industrial Production	p. 364
German TFO Business Climate Index	p. 366
German Consumer Price Index (CPI)	p. 368
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment	p. 371
Japan Industrial Production	p. 373
Japan's Tankan Survey	p. 378
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) by Country and Region	p. 384
OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI)	p. 393
China Industrial Production	p. 396
India: Industrial Production and Inflation	p. 403
Brazil's Industrial Production and the DBC-Br Economic Activity Index	p. 410
Canada: International Merchandise Trade, Composite Leading Indicators, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index	p. 416
Australia: Consumer Prices, Retail Trade, International Trade	p. 422
Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicators	p. 429
Schedule of Releases	p. 429
Economic News	p. 429
Free Mobile Phone Apps on the Economy	p. 429
The U.S. Economy	p. 430
Consumer Behavior	p. 431
Employment Conditions	p. 432
Home Sales and Construction Activity	p. 433
International Trade	p. 433
Inflation Pressures	p. 434
Federal Reserve Reports	p. 434
The Federal Budget	p. 435
Interest Rates	p. 435
Money and Credit	p. 436
U.S. Dollar	p. 436
One-Stop Shopping for Economic Statistics	p. 436
Other Useful Economic Sources on the Web	p. 437
Unconventional Economic Indicators	p. 437
Best Web Sites for International Economic Indicators	p. 439
Calendar of Releases for Foreign Economic Data	p. 439
Sources of Global Economic News	p. 439
Economic Statistics from Other Countries	p. 439
Best Megasites for International Economic Statistics	p. 444
Index	p. 447
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