Security in Iraq A Framework for Analyzing Emerging Threats as U.S. Forces Leave

by Gompert, David C.; Kelly, Terrence K.; Watkins, Jessica

• ISBN13: 9780833047717
• ISBN10: 083304771X
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2010-03-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

U.S. withdrawal could affect Iraq's internal security and stability, which could, in turn, affect U.S. strategic interests and the safety of U.S. troops and civilians in Iraq. U.S. policy-makers need a dynamic analytic framework with which to examine the shifting motivations and capabilities of the actors that affect Iraq's security. Within this framework, the United States should be able to contribute to continued strengthening of the internal security and stability of Iraq even as it withdraws its forces.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. vii
Tables	p. ix
Summary	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xxi
Abbreviations	p. xxiii
Introduction	p. 1
Political and Security Conditions of U.S. Withdrawal	p. 5
Background	p. 5
Conceptualizing Politics and Security in Iraq	p. 7
Assessing the Dangers	p. 15
Extremist Violence	p. 15
Mainstream Armed Opposition	p. 20
Concentration and Abuse of Power by the GoI and the ISF	p. 30
Capabilities and Calculations of the Main Actors	p. 33
Threat Interactions	p. 37
Direct Threats to U.S. Personnel	p. 39
Extremists	p. 39
Main Opposition Groups	p. 41
Summary of Potential Threats to U.S. Forces and Other Personnel	p. 43
Grounding Political Dangers in Economic Realities	p. 43
Summarizing Dangers and Implications for U.S. Withdrawal	p. 46
Future U.S. Security Responsibilities in Iraq	p. 49
Security Functions That Must Transcend U.S. Force Withdrawal	p. 49
Conclusions and Recommendations	p. 54
Bibliography	p. 57
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