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9780071370134

Seven Indicators That Move Markets: Forecasting Future Market Movements for Profitable Investments

by ;
  • ISBN13:

    9780071370134

  • ISBN10:

    0071370137

  • Edition: 1st
  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 2002-10-19
  • Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
  • Purchase Benefits
List Price: $32.00 Save up to $4.80
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Summary

How to understandshy;shy;and profit fromshy;shy;reliable and easy-to-use indicators that are often overlooked by the popular pressSeven Indicators That Move Marketsreveals easy-to-use indicators that have been shown to actually forecast where the financial markets are going next. These indicators, widely available in daily newspapers and on the Internet, provide continuously updated figures and data that describe what market users are thinking todayshy;shy;and where the markets could be headed tomorrow.This timely book shows savvy investors where and when to look for these market indicators, how to use them to structure investment strategies, and which asset allocations work best for specific market conditions. It contains hands-on techniques for: Filtering fact from rumor in the financial press Understanding relationships between indicators and investment choices Evaluating market data in relation to Fed policy

Author Biography

Paul Kasriel, director of economic research for The Northern Trust Company, is responsible for making the corporation's economic and interest-rate forecasts. Through his economic and financial commentaries, Kasriel has developed a loyal following in the financial community. He is often quoted in national publications including Barron's, BusinessWeek, Investor's Business Daily, and The New York Times, and he has appeared on CNN, CNBC, and PBS.

Keith Schap is a writer in the market and product development department of the Chicago Board of Trade. Previously a senior editor with Futures magazine, where he developed market outlooks for numerous markets, Schap has contributed over 300 articles to magazines and journals including Futures, Treasury and Risk Management, and Derivative Strategies.

Table of Contents

Prefacep. xi
Market Indicators for a New Investment Erap. 1
Whop. 2
The Legendary Perfect Tradep. 3
Patience, Persistence, and Probabilityp. 4
Concrete, Public, and Forward-Lookingp. 5
A Market Can't Think, or Maybe It Canp. 9
A Glimpse at the Structure of This Bookp. 10
A Suggestion about How to Use This Bookp. 11
The Role of the Fedp. 13
The Fed's Balancing Actp. 14
Where the Government-Sponsored Enterprises Fit Inp. 15
How the Fed Worksp. 18
The Fed Is Irrelevant? Guess Againp. 20
Two Basic Ideasp. 22
Transfer Credit and Created Creditp. 23
Fed Funds Spreads Can Shed Light on Future Fed Actionsp. 29
Defining Fed Funds Futuresp. 30
Deriving the Market Consensusp. 31
Tracking a Shifting Consensusp. 34
Shifting from a Stable Outlook to Expectations of Tighteningp. 36
Tracking a Growing Consensusp. 38
Finding the Probability of a Fed Policy Shiftp. 40
A Valuable Toolp. 41
Yield-Curve Shape Changes Foretell Economic Developmentsp. 43
Flatter-Steeperp. 45
Yield Curves As Indicatorsp. 45
Accounting for Yield-Curve Shapep. 47
Complicating Our Understanding of Yield-Curve Shapep. 49
Supply-Demand Pressure Counts, Toop. 51
Don't Forget This Is the Information Agep. 53
Credit Supply-Credit Demandp. 54
The Problem with the Treasury Yield Curve As Benchmarkp. 57
TEDs, TAGs, and the Credit Storyp. 59
Pricing Credit in the Bond Marketp. 60
The Plot Thickensp. 61
The Original TED Spreadp. 65
The Market Took a Longer Look at the TEDp. 69
Term TEDs Reflect Market Concernsp. 70
TAG Spreads Tell the Same Story As Term TEDsp. 73
Calculating the TAG Spreadp. 74
Relating TAGs and TEDsp. 75
Volatility--An Indicator of Market Potentialp. 79
Looking Back and Looking Forwardp. 81
Scaling Volatility Information to Your Investment Horizonp. 86
A More Advanced Ideap. 87
A Note on the Psychology of Volatilityp. 90
Volatility Can Help with Timingp. 92
Why Heating Oil Is Relevantp. 93
Developing a Sense of How Far Down Down Might Bep. 99
Tying Stock Prices to Oil Pricesp. 100
What the Markets Suggestp. 102
A Word of Cautionp. 103
Futures Price Relationships Enrich the Storyp. 105
The Basisp. 106
The Force of Arbitragep. 107
Commodity Spreadsp. 109
A Sense of Historyp. 112
The Energy Markets Signal Similar Storage Messagesp. 114
Gauging the Profitability of Refiningp. 118
The Time to Actp. 120
Commodity Prices--The Next Link in the Chainp. 123
The Trouble with Commodity Indexesp. 123
Supply Shocks Can Blur Signalsp. 124
A Demand-Driven Index Seems a Better Forecasterp. 126
Copper: Everyman's Economistp. 128
A Look at the Futures Price Spreadsp. 130
The LME Markets Reinforce the Copper Storyp. 138
Oil Matters in Evaluating the Potential for Inflationp. 138
The Trouble with Goldp. 142
Changing Rules and Noisy Marketsp. 145
Deregulating a Good Indicatorp. 146
The Effect of Deposit-Rate Deregulation on the Relationship between the Yield Curve and Economic Growthp. 147
The Treasury Buyback Distorts a Useful Indicatorp. 148
The Traditional TED Was Not "Too Big to Fail"p. 149
Markets Can Get Noisyp. 151
Putting the Market Indicators to Workp. 161
A Framework for Predicting and Interpreting Economic Eventsp. 161
Investing a Step at a Timep. 164
The Yield Spread Provides Early Warningp. 164
Reading the Exhibitsp. 168
Motivating the Use of Aaa Corporate Yieldsp. 168
Industrial Commodity Prices Should Follow the Yield Curvep. 170
Credit Spreads Provide Further Evidencep. 170
Assumptions about Investingp. 174
Market Indicators Prompt Asset Allocation Shiftsp. 175
The Conflict between Good Policy and Human Naturep. 176
Indications of When to Shift Assetsp. 178
Volatility Can Help You Think about Turning Pointsp. 179
Typical Consumer Behavior Argues for Strategic Discretionp. 181
Housing Starts Tell a Similar Storyp. 181
A Framework, Not a Final Answerp. 184
Glossaryp. 187
Indexp. 193
Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved.

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