Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

by Gigerenzer, Gerd; Todd, Peter M.; ABC Research Group

• ISBN13: 9780195143812
• ISBN10: 0195143817
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-10-12
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can produce adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop out rates, and playing the stock market. As an interdisciplinary work that is both useful and engaging, this book will appeal to a wide audience. It is ideal for researchers in cognitive psychology, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive science, as well as in economics and artificial intelligence. It will also inspire anyone interested in simply making good decisions.

Author Biography

Dr. Gerd Gigerenzer is the Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development. Dr. Peter M. Todd is Research Scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development.

Table of Contents

The ABC Research Group	xiii
Part I The Research Agenda
Fast and Frugal Heuristics: The Adaptive Toolbox	3	(34)
Gerd Gigerenzer
Peter M. Todd
Part II Ignorance-Based Decision Making
The Recognition Heuristic: How Ignorance Makes Us Smart	37	(22)
Daniel G. Goldstein
Gerd Gigerenzer
Can Ignorance Beat the Stock Market?	59	(16)
Bernhard Borges
Daniel G. Goldstein
Andreas Ortmann
Gerd Gigerenzer
Part III One-Reason Decision Making
Betting on One Good Reason: The Take The Best Heuristic	75	(22)
Gerd Gigerenzer
Daniel G. Goldstein
How Good Are Simple Heuristics?	97	(22)
Jean Czerlinski
Gerd Gigerenzer
Daniel G. Goldstein
Why Does One-Reason Decision Making Work? A Case Study in Ecological Rationality	119	(22)
Laura Martignon
Ulrich Hoffrage
When Do People Use Simple Heuristics, and How Can We Tell?	141	(28)
Jorg Rieskamp
Ulrich Hoffrage
Bayesian Benchmarks for Fast and Frugal Heuristics	169	(22)
Laura Martignon
Kathryn Blackmond Laskey
Part IV Beyond Choice: Memory, Estimation, and Categorization
Hindsight Bias: A Price Worth Paying for Fast and Frugal Memory	191	(18)
Ulrich Hoffrage
Ralph Hertwig
Quick Estimation: Letting the Environment Do the Work	209	(26)
Ralph Hertwig
Ulrich Hoffrage
Laura Martignon
Categorization by Elimination: Using Few Cues to Choose	235	(22)
Patricia M. Berretty
Peter M. Todd
Laura Martignon
Part V Social Intelligence
How Motion Reveals Intention: Categorizing Social Interactions	257	(30)
Philip W. Blythe
Peter M. Todd
Geoffrey F. Miller
From Pride and Prejudice to Persuasion: Satisficing in Mate Search	287	(22)
Peter M. Todd
Geoffrey F. Miller
Parental Investment by Simple Decision Rules	309	(18)
Jennifer Nerssa Davis
Peter M. Todd
Part VI A Look Around, A Look Back, A Look Ahead
Demons Versus Heuristics in Artificial Intelligence, Behavioral Ecology, and Economics	327	(30)
Adam S. Goodie
Andreas Ortmann
Jennifer Nerissa Davis
Seth Bullock
Gregory M. Werner
What We Have Learned (So Far)	357	(10)
Peter M. Todd
Gerd Gigerenzer
References	367	(30)
Name Index	397	(9)
Subject Index	406