The Singularity Is Near When Humans Transcend Biology

by Kurzweil, Ray

• ISBN13: 9780143037880
• ISBN10: 0143037889
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2006-09-26
• Publisher: Penguin Books

Summary

For over three decades, Ray Kurzweil has been one of the most respected and provocative advocates of the role of technology in our future. In his classic The Age of Spiritual Machines, he argued that computers would soon rival the full range of human intelligence at its best. Now he examines the next step in this inexorable evolutionary process: the union of human and machine, in which the knowledge and skills embedded in our brains will be combined with the vastly greater capacity, speed, and knowledge-sharing ability of our creations.

Author Biography

Ray Kurzweil is one of the world-'s leading inventors, thinkers, and futurists. The recipient of many awards and honored with accolades such as -ôthe ultimate thinking machine-ö (Forbes) and the -ôrightful heir to Thomas Jefferson-ö (Inc.), he is the author of four previous books.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	xv
Prologue The Power of Ideas	1	(6)
CHAPTER ONE The Six Epochs	7	(28)
The Intuitive Linear View Versus the Historical Exponential View	10	(4)
The Six Epochs	14	(7)
Epoch One: Physics and Chemistry.
Epoch Two: Biology and DNA.
Epoch Three: Brains.
Epoch Four: Technology.
Epoch Five: The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence.
Epoch Six: The Universe Wakes Up.
The Singularity Is Near	21	(14)
CHAPTER TWO A Theory of Technology Evolution: The Law of Accelerating Returns	35	(76)
The Nature of Order. The Life Cycle of a Paradigm. Fractal Designs. Farsighted Evolution.
The S-Curve of a Technology as Expressed in Its Life Cycle	51	(5)
The Life Cycle of a Technology. From Goat Skins to Downloads.
Moore's Law and Beyond	56	(16)
Moore's Law: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
The Fifth Paradigm.
Fractal Dimensions and the Brain.
DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization	72	(24)
Information, Order, and Evolution: The Insights from Wolfram and Fredkin's Cellular Automata.
Can We Evolve Artificial Intelligence from Simple Rules?
The Singularity as Economic Imperative	96	(15)
Get Eighty Trillion Dollars—Limited Time Only.
Deflation...a Bad Thing?
CHAPTER THREE Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain	111	(32)
The Sixth Paradigm of Computing Technology: Three-Dimensional Molecular Computing and Emerging Computational Technologies	111	(11)
The Bridge to 3-D Molecular Computing.
Nanotubes Are Still the Best Bet.
Computing with Molecules.
Self-Assembly. Emulating Biology.
Computing with DNA. Computing with Spin.
Computing with Light.
Quantum Computing.
The Computational Capacity of the Human Brain	122	(5)
Accelerating the Availability of Human-Level Personal Computing.
Human Memory Capacity.
The Limits of Computation	127	(16)
Reversible Computing. How Smart Is a Rock?
The Limits of Nano-computing.
Setting a Date for the Singularity.
Memory and Computational Efficiency: A Rock Versus a Human Brain.
Going Beyond the Ultimate: Pico- and Femtotechnology and Bending the Speed of Light.
Going Back in Time.
CHAPTER FOUR Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence: How to Reverse Engineer the Human Brain	143	(62)
Reverse Engineering the Brain: An Overview of the Task	144	(5)
New Brain-Imaging and Modeling Tools.
The Software of the Brain.
Analytic Versus Neuromorphic Modeling of the Brain.
How Complex Is the Brain?
Modeling the Brain.
Peeling the Onion.
Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer?	149	(8)
The Brain's Circuits Are Very Slow.
But It's Massively Parallel.
The Brain Combines Analog and Digital Phenomena.
The Brain Rewires Itself.
Most of the Details in the Brain Are Random.
The Brain Uses Emergent Properties.
The Brain Is Imperfect.
We Contradict Ourselves.
The Brain Uses Evolution.
The Patterns Are Important.
The Brain Is Holographic.
The Brain Is Deeply Connected.
The Brain Does Have an Architecture of Regions.
The Design of a Brain Region Is Simpler than the Design of a Neuron.
Trying to Understand Our Own Thinking: The Accelerating Pace of Research.
Peering into the Brain	157	(10)
New Tools for Scanning the Brain.
Improving Resolution.
Scanning Using Nanobots.
Building Models of the Brain	167	(27)
Subneural Models:
Synapses and Spines.
Neuron Models.
Electronic Neurons.
Brain Plasticity.
Modeling Regions of the Brain.
A Neuromorphic Model: The Cerebellum.
Another Example: Watts's Model of the Auditory Regions.
The Visual System.
Other Works in Progress: An Artificial Hippocampus and an Artificial Olivocerebellar Region.
Understanding Higher-Level Functions: Imitation, Prediction, and Emotion.
Interfacing the Brain and Machines	194	(1)
The Accelerating Pace of Reverse Engineering the Brain	195	(3)
The Scalability of Human Intelligence.
Uploading the Human Brain	198	(7)
CHAPTER FIVE GNR: Three Overlapping Revolutions	205	(95)
Genetics: The Intersection of Information and Biology	206	(20)
Life's Computer. Designer Baby Boomers.
Can We Really Live Forever?
RNAi (RNA Interference).
Cell Therapies. Gene Chips.
Somatic Gene Therapy.
Reversing Degenerative Disease.
Combating Heart Disease.
Overcoming Cancer.
Reversing Aging.
DNA Mutations.
Toxic Cells.
Mitochondrial Mutations.
Intracellular Aggregates.
Extracellular Aggregates.
Cell Loss and Atrophy.
Human Cloning: The Least Interesting Application of Cloning Technology.
Why Is Cloning Important? Preserving Endangered Species and Restoring Extinct Ones.
Therapeutic Cloning.
Human Somatic-Cell Engineering.
Solving World Hunger.
Human Cloning Revisited.
Nanotechnology: The Intersection of Information and the Physical World	226	(33)
The Biological Assembler.
Upgrading the Cell Nucleus with a Nano-computer and Nanobot.
Fat and Sticky Fingers.
The Debate Heats Up.
Early Adopters.
Powering the Singularity.
Applications of Nanotechnology to the Environment.
Nanobots in the Bloodstream.
Robotics: Strong AI	259	(41)
Runaway AI.
The AI Winter.
AI's Toolkit.
Expert Systems.
Bayesian Nets.
Markov Models.
Neural Nets.
Genetic Algorithms (GAs).
Recursive Search.
Deep Fritz Draws: Are Humans Getting Smarter, or Are Computers Getting Stupider?
The Specialized-Hardware Advantage.
Deep Blue Versus Deep Fritz.
Significant Software Gains.
Are Human Chess Players Doomed?
Combining Methods.
A Narrow AI Sampler.
Military and Intelligence.
Space Exploration.
Medicine.
Science and Math.
Business, Finance, and Manufacturing.
Manufacturing and Robotics.
Speech and Language.
Entertainment and Sports.
Strong AI.
CHAPTER SIX The Impact...	.299
A Panoply of Impacts.
...on the Human Body	300	(12)
A New Way of Eating.
Redesigning the Digestive System.
Programmable Blood.
Have a Heart, or Not.
So What's Left?
Redesigning the Human Brain.
We Are Becoming Cyborgs.
Human Body Version 3.0.
...on the Human Brain	312	(8)
The 2010 Scenario.
The 2030 Scenario.
Become Someone Else.
Experience Beamers.
Expand Your Mind.
...on Human Longevity	320	(10)
The Transformation to Nonbiological Experience.
The Longevity of Information.
...on Warfare: The Remote, Robotic, Robust, Size-Reduced, Virtual-Reality Paradigm	330	(5)
Smart Dust.
Nanoweapons.
Smart Weapons.
VR.
...on Learning	335	(2)
...on Work	337	(4)
Intellectual Property.
Decentralization.
...on Play	341	(1)
...on the Intelligent Destiny of the Cosmos: Why We Are Probably Alone in the Universe	342	(27)
The Drake Equation.
The Limits of Computation Revisited.
Bigger or Smaller.
Expanding Beyond the Solar System.
The Speed of Light Revisited.
Wormholes.
Changing the Speed of Light.
The Fermi Paradox Revisited.
The Anthropic Principle Revisited.
The Multiverse.
Evolving Universes.
Intelligence as the Destiny of the Universe.
The Ultimate Utility Function.
Hawking Radiation.
Why Intelligence Is More Powerful than Physics.
A Universe-Scale Computer.
The Holographic Universe.
CHAPTER SEVEN Ich bin ein Singularitarian	369	(22)
Still Human?
The Vexing Question of Consciousness	376	(6)
Who Am I? What Am I?	382	(5)
The Singularity as Transcendence	387	(4)
CHAPTER EIGHT The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR	391	(36)
Intertwined Benefits...	396	(1)
...and Dangers	397	(3)
A Panoply of Existential Risks	400	(8)
The Precautionary Principle.
The Smaller the Interaction, the Larger the Explosive Potential.
Our Simulation Is Turned Off.
Crashing the Party.
GNR: The Proper Focus of Promise Versus Peril.
The Inevitability of a Transformed Future.
Totalitarian Relinquishment.
Preparing the Defenses	408	(2)
Strong AI.
Returning to the Past?
The Idea of Relinquishment	410	(6)
Broad Relinquishment.
Fine-Grained Relinquishment.
Dealing with Abuse.
The Threat from Fundamentalism.
Fundamentalist Humanism.
Development of Defensive Technologies and the Impact of Regulation	416	(6)
Protection from "Unfriendly" Strong AI.
Decentralization.
Distributed Energy.
Civil Liberties in an Age of Asymmetric Warfare.
A Program for GNR Defense	422	(5)
CHAPTER NINE Response to Critics	427	(58)
A Panoply of Criticisms	427	(5)
The Criticism from Incredulity	432	(1)
The Criticism from Malthus	433	(2)
Exponential Trends Don't Last Forever.
A Virtually Unlimited Limit.
The Criticism from Software	435	(7)
Software Stability.
Software Responsiveness.
Software Price-Performance.
Software Development Productivity.
Software Complexity.
Accelerating Algorithms.
The Ultimate Source of Intelligent Algorithms.
The Criticism from Analog Processing	442	(1)
The Criticism from the Complexity of Neural Processing	442	(8)
Brain Complexity.
A Computer's Inherent Dualism.
Levels and Loops.
The Criticism from Microtubules and Quantum Computing	450	(3)
The Criticism from the Church-Turing Thesis	453	(3)
The Criticism from Failure Rates	456	(1)
The Criticism from "Lock-In"	457	(1)
The Criticism from Ontology: Can a Computer Be Conscious?	458	(11)
Kurzweil's Chinese Room.
The Criticism from the Rich-Poor Divide	469	(1)
The Criticism from the Likelihood of Government Regulation	470	(3)
The Unbearable Slowness of Social Institutions.
The Criticism from Theism	473	(6)
The Criticism from Holism	479	(6)
Epilogue	485	(4)
How Singular? Human Centrality.
Resources and Contact Information	489	(2)
Appendix: The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited	491	(6)
Notes	497	(106)
Index	603