Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates : Priorities for 2000 and Beyond

by Citro, Constance F.; Kalton, Graham

• ISBN13: 9780309071468
• ISBN10: 0309071461
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-09-01
• Publisher: Natl Academy Pr

Summary

Recent trends in federal policies for social and economic programs have increased the demand for timely, accurate estimates of income and poverty for states, counties, and even smaller areas. Every year more than $130 billion in federal funds is allocated to states and localities through formulas that use such estimates. These funds support a wide range of programs that include child care, community development, education, job training, nutrition, and public health.A new program of the U.S. Census Bureau is now providing more timely estimates for these programs than those from the decennial census, which have been used for many years. These new estimates are being used to allocate more than $7 billion annually to school districts, through the Title I program that supports educationally disadvantaged children.But are these estimates as accurate as possible given the available data? How can the statistical models and data that are used to develop the estimates be improved? What should policy makers consider in selecting particular estimates? This new book from the National Research Council provides guidance for improving the Census Bureau's program and for policy makers who use such estimates for allocating funds.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary	1	(2)
Conclusion	2	(1)
Using Estimates in Programs	2	(1)
Recommendations for Producers and Users	3	(1)
Recommendations for SAIPE	4	(7)
Introduction	11	(7)
Background	12	(2)
SAIPE in Brief	14	(2)
Plan of the Report	16	(2)
Needs for Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates	18	(26)
Program Trends	18	(4)
Requirements for Estimates	22	(12)
Data Sources	34	(8)
Conclusion	42	(2)
Current SAIPE Models	44	(38)
User Overview	44	(3)
Models for Poor School-Age Children	47	(16)
Other SAIPE Models	63	(3)
Population Estimates	66	(6)
Priorities for SAIPE Model Development	72	(9)
Conclusion	81	(1)
Future Model Development: The Role of Surveys	82	(43)
User Overview	82	(4)
Survey Features	86	(14)
Uses of Surveys for SAIPE	100	(1)
Evaluating Alternative Uses	101	(12)
Analysis and Conclusions	113	(12)
Future Model Development: The Role of Administrative Records	125	(25)
Overview	125	(2)
Tax Return Data	127	(3)
Food Stamp Data	130	(3)
Geocoding with TIGER and MAF	133	(4)
School Lunch Data	137	(5)
Data Needs for Population Estimates	142	(6)
Recommendations	148	(2)
Using Estimates in Allocation Formulas	150	(11)
Overview	150	(3)
Bias	153	(1)
Variability	154	(5)
Conclusion	159	(2)
Recommendations for Producers and Users	161	(6)
Production of Estimates	162	(3)
Use of Estimates	165	(1)
Deciding to Use Estimates for Programs	166	(1)
Appendix: Interactions Between Survey Estimates and Federal Funding Formulas	167	(24)
Alan M. Zaslavsky
Allen L. Schirm
References and Bibliography	191	(10)
Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff	201