Soft Computing for Risk Evaluation and Management

by Ruan, Da; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Fedrizzi, Mario

• ISBN13: 9783790814064
• ISBN10: 3790814067
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2001-12-01
• Publisher: Physica Verlag

Summary

Risk is a crucial element in virtually all problems people in diverse areas face in their activities. It is impossible to find adequate models and solutions without taking it into account. Due to uncertainty and complexity in those problems, traditional "hard" tools and techniques may be insufficient for their formulation and solution. This is the first book in the literature that shows how soft computing methods (fuzzy logic, neural networks, genetic algorithms, etc.) can be employed to deal with various problems related to risk analysis, evaluation and management in various fields of technology, environment and finance.

Table of Contents

Preface The Editors	v
1. BASIC ISSUES
Decision Making under Uncertainty with Ordinal Linguistic Data	3	(14)
T. Whalen
Modeling Risk in Sequential Decision Making with Interval Probabilities	17	(14)
K.J. Engemann
H.E. Miller
R.R. Yager
Fuzzy Risk Analysis Vs. Probability Risk Analysis	31	(24)
Huang Chongfu
Soft Methods in Hypotheses Testing	55	(18)
P. Grzegorzewski
O. Hryniewicz
Extensions and Applications of Evidence Theory	73	(24)
D. Cai
2. ANALYSIS OF EVIDENCE AND DATA
Data Mining Based on Evidence Theory	97	(24)
D. Cai
Interesting Rough Lattice-based Implication Rules Discovery	121	(12)
Y. Zhao
J. Shi
D. Ruan
P. Shi
Concept Lattice-based Approach for Incrementally Association Mining	133	(7)
Y. Zhao
D. Ruan
P. Shi
Neuro-Fuzzy Modelling of Time Series	140	(15)
J. Zhang
A. Knoll
A Fast Logically-Complete Preferential Reasoner for the Assessment of Critical Situations	155	(15)
E. Gregoire
Artificial Intelligence Classifiers and Their Social Impact	170	(27)
J. C. Aguado Chao
3. RISK IN DECISION SUPPORT AND CONTROL SYSTEMS
Analysis Support System of Human Reliability with Linguistic Expressions	197	(32)
T. Onisawa
A. Ohmori
A Cognitive and Formal Terminology for Descriptive Parameters in Concurrent Real-Time Distributed Software Systems	229	(20)
A. Jalashgar
Safety Licensable and High Speed Programmable Digital Controllers Providing any Required Control Behaviour	249	(26)
P. Vogrin
W. A. Halang
4. RISK IN ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
Fuzzy Price Forecasting and Energy Contracting in Competitive Electricity Markets	275	(46)
W. Mielczarski
G. Michalik-Mielczarska
System Modelling in Monitoring and Supervising System of Distributed Energy and Heat Supply Complex	321	(16)
J. Bila
T. Brandejsky
Evidential Reasoning in Nuclear Waste Management	337	(18)
A. Tocatlidou
A Fuzzy Model of Heavy Metal Loadings in Marine Environment	355	(20)
L.I. Kuncheva
J. Wrench
L.C. Jain
A. Al.-Zaidan
5. RISK IN FINANCE
Capital Budgeting Techniques Using Discounted Fuzzy Cash Flows	375	(22)
C. Kahraman
Survival Risk and Project Evaluation	397	(13)
F. Beccacece
P. Gallo
L. Peccati
Coherent Risk Measures and Linear Programming	410	(22)
S. Benati
Fuzzy Risk Management for Project Financing	432	(15)
P. Mazzoleni
Fuzzy Logic Based Risk Management in Financial Intermediation	447	(25)
K. Korolev
K.D. Leifert
H. Rommelfanger
Bank Creditworthiness Using Fuzzy Systems: A Comparison with a Classical Analysis Approach	472	(15)
G. Facchinetti
S. Bordoni
G. Mastroleo
Risk of Options - Impact of Volatility Parameter	487	(14)
K. Jajuga
K. Kuziak
Managing Portfolio of Options	501
D. Gatarek