State and Local Population Projections

by Smith, Stanley K.; Tayman, Jeff; Swanson, David A.

• ISBN13: 9780306464928
• ISBN10: 0306464926
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2000-09-01
• Publisher: Plenum Pub Corp

Summary

This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques within each of three classes of projection methods (cohort-component, trend extrapolation, and structural models) and covers the components of population growth, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods, paying special attention to the unique problems of making projections for small areas, and closes with an examination of technological and methodological changes affecting the production of small-area population projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, and other analysts called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data; they also describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another and for interpolating between two projections. They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the "utility" of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.

Table of Contents

Introduction	1	(19)
What Is a Population Projection?	3	(4)
Projections, Forecasts, Estimates	3	(1)
Alternative Approaches to Projecting Population	4	(3)
Why Make Population Projections?	7	(4)
Roles of Projections	7	(1)
Projections and Decision Making	8	(2)
Forecasting and Planning	10	(1)
How Can This Book Help?	11	(8)
Objectives	12	(2)
Geographic Focus	14	(1)
Coverage	15	(2)
Target Audience	17	(2)
Fundamentals of Population Analysis	19	(24)
Demographic Concepts	19	(9)
Size	19	(3)
Distribution	22	(1)
Composition	23	(1)
Change	24	(4)
Components of Change	28	(3)
Fertility	28	(1)
Mortality	28	(1)
Migration	29	(1)
Demographic Balancing Equation	30	(1)
Statistical Measures	31	(4)
Sources of Data	35	(8)
Decennial Census	36	(2)
Vital Statistics	38	(1)
Sample Surveys	39	(2)
Administrative Records	41	(1)
Population Estimates	41	(2)
Overview of the Cohort-Component Method	43	(6)
Concepts and Terminology	44	(1)
Brief Description of Procedures	45	(4)
Mortality	49	(24)
Mortality Measures	50	(2)
Crude Death Rate	50	(1)
Age-Specific Death Rate	51	(1)
Survival Rates	52	(7)
Life Table Survival Rates	52	(5)
Census Survival Rates	57	(2)
Approaches to Projecting Mortality Rates	59	(5)
Constant Rates	60	(1)
Trend Extrapolation	60	(1)
Targeting	61	(1)
Cause-Delay	62	(1)
Synthetic Projection	63	(1)
Implementing the Mortality Component	64	(7)
Sources of Data	64	(1)
View of the Future	65	(3)
Examples	68	(3)
Conclusions	71	(2)
Fertility	73	(24)
Fertility Measures	74	(5)
Crude Birth Rate	75	(1)
General Fertility Rate	75	(1)
Age-Specific Birth Rate	76	(1)
Total Fertility Rate	77	(1)
Child--Woman Ratio	78	(1)
Two Perspectives: Period and Cohort	79	(4)
Defining the Relationship	79	(2)
Assessing the Issues	81	(2)
Approaches to Projecting Fertility Rates	83	(6)
Using Period Rates	83	(4)
Using Cohort Rates	87	(2)
Implementing the Fertility Component	89	(6)
Sources of Data	90	(1)
Views of the Future	91	(1)
Examples	92	(3)
Conclusions	95	(2)
Migration	97	(40)
Concepts, Measures, Definitions	98	(14)
Place of Residence	98	(2)
Mobility and Migration	100	(1)
Length of Migration Interval	100	(1)
Gross and Net Migration	101	(3)
Migration Rates	104	(5)
International and Internal Migration	109	(2)
Assessing the Issues	111	(1)
Sources of Data	112	(6)
Decennial Census	113	(1)
Administrative Records	114	(1)
Sample Surveys	115	(1)
Residual Estimates	116	(2)
Determinants of Migration	118	(5)
Theoretical Foundations	118	(2)
Reasons for Moving	120	(2)
Statistical Analyses	122	(1)
Migration Models	123	(5)
Gross Migration	123	(2)
Net Migration	125	(3)
Implementing the Migration Component	128	(7)
Choosing Appropriate Models	128	(1)
Choosing Data and Assumptions	129	(2)
Accounting for Unique Events and Special Populations	131	(1)
Accounting for Data Problems	132	(1)
Converting Data to Alternate Time Intervals	133	(2)
Conclusions	135	(2)
Implementing the Cohort-Component Method	137	(24)
General Considerations	137	(2)
Applying the Cohort-Component Method	139	(19)
Gross Migration (Model I)	142	(9)
Net Migration (Model II)	151	(2)
Hamilton--Perry (Model III)	153	(5)
Comparing Models I, II, and III	158	(1)
Conclusions	159	(2)
Trend Extrapolation Methods	161	(24)
Simple Methods	162	(4)
Linear	164	(1)
Geometric	164	(1)
Exponential	165	(1)
Complex Methods	166	(10)
Linear Trend	167	(2)
Polynomial Curve Fitting	169	(1)
Logistic Curve Fitting	170	(2)
ARIMA Model	172	(4)
Ratio Methods	176	(4)
Constant-Share	177	(1)
Shift-Share	178	(1)
Share-Of-Growth	179	(1)
Other Applications	180	(1)
Analyzing Projection Results	180	(2)
Conclusions	182	(3)
Structural Models I: Economic-Demographic	185	(30)
Overview of Structural Models	185	(1)
Focus on Migration	186	(1)
Factors Affecting Migration	187	(6)
Employment	188	(2)
Unemployment Rate	190	(1)
Wages and Income	191	(1)
Amenities	192	(1)
Recursive Models	193	(16)
Econometric Models	194	(4)
Balancing Labor Supply and Demand	198	(4)
Population/Employment Ratios	202	(7)
Nonrecursive Models	209	(4)
Economic and Demographic Relationships	209	(2)
Regional Economic Models, Incorporated (REMI)	211	(2)
Conclusions	213	(2)
Structural Models II: Urban Systems	215	(24)
A Brief History of Urban Systems Models	217	(1)
Components of Urban Systems Models	218	(4)
Regional Projections	218	(1)
Zonal Land Use and Activity Model	218	(2)
Transportation Model	220	(1)
Linking the Components	220	(2)
Data Requirements and Sources	222	(3)
Population, Housing, Income	223	(1)
Employment	224	(1)
Land Use	224	(1)
Illustration of a Residential Location Model	225	(5)
Land Use and Activity Models Used Today	230	(6)
DRAM and EMPAL: Descendants of Lowry's Gravity Model	230	(1)
POLIS: An Optimization Model	231	(1)
Land Pricing Models	232	(1)
Microgeographic Land Use and Activity Models	233	(2)
California Urban Futures Model	235	(1)
Conclusions	236	(3)
Special Adjustments	239	(40)
International Migration	239	(2)
Special Populations	241	(5)
Incorporating Special Populations into the Projection	242	(1)
Assessing Data for Special Populations	243	(2)
Illustrating the Impact of a Special Population	245	(1)
Census Enumeration Errors	246	(2)
Controlling	248	(18)
Controlling to Independent Projections	249	(9)
Controlling to Projections of Larger Geographic Areas	258	(8)
Providing Additional Temporal and Age Detail	266	(11)
Adding Temporal Detail	266	(6)
Adding Age Detail	272	(5)
Conclusions	277	(2)
Evaluating Projections	279	(22)
Evaluation Criteria	280	(12)
Provision of Necessary Detail	280	(2)
Face Validity	282	(3)
Plausibility	285	(2)
Costs of Production	287	(1)
Timeliness	287	(1)
Ease of Application and Explanation	288	(9)
Usefulness as an Analytical Tool	297
Political Acceptability	289	(3)
Forecast Accuracy	292	(1)
A Balancing Act	292	(1)
Comparing Methods	293	(5)
Provision of Detail	294	(1)
Face Validity and Plausibility	295	(1)
Costs and Timeliness	295	(1)
Ease of Application and Explanation	296	(1)
Usefulness as an Analytical Tool	297	(1)
Political Acceptability	297	(1)
Forecast Accuracy	298	(1)
Conclusions	298	(3)
Forecast Accuracy and Bias	301	(42)
Measuring Accuracy and Bias	302	(5)
Defining Forecast Error	302	(1)
Common Error Measures	302	(3)
Selection Criteria	305	(2)
Factors That Affect Accuracy and Bias	307	(21)
Projection Method	307	(9)
Population Size	316	(1)
Population Growth Rate	317	(3)
Length of Horizon	320	(3)
Length of Base Period	323	(3)
Launch Year	326	(2)
Combining Forecasts	328	(3)
Accounting for Uncertainty	331	(8)
Range of Projections	332	(2)
Prediction Intervals	334	(5)
Conclusions	339	(4)
A Practical Guide to Small-Area Projections	343	(18)
Determine What Is Needed	344	(4)
Demographic Characteristics	345	(1)
Geographic Areas	345	(1)
Length of Horizon and Projection Interval	346	(1)
Time and Budget Constraints	347	(1)
Other Considerations	347	(1)
Construct the Projections	348	(7)
Select Computer Software	348	(1)
Choose Projection Method(s)	349	(2)
Collect and Evaluate Data	351	(1)
Adjust for Special Events	352	(1)
Control for Consistency	353	(1)
Account for Uncertainty	354	(1)
Review and Document the Results	355	(5)
Internal Review	355	(3)
External Review	358	(1)
Documentation	359	(1)
Conclusions	360	(1)
New Directions in Population Projection Research	361	(16)
Technological Developments	362	(5)
Data Availability	362	(2)
Computing Capabilities	364	(1)
Geographic Information Systems	365	(2)
Methodological Developments	367	(6)
Microsimulation Models	367	(1)
Spatial Diffusion Models	368	(2)
Artificial Neural Networks	370	(1)
Intergrating Expert Judgment	371	(1)
Measuring Uncertainty	372	(1)
Combining Projections	373	(1)
Scope of Projections	373	(1)
Some Challenges	374	(3)
Glossary	377	(8)
References	385	(20)
Author Index	405	(6)
Subject Index	411