Statistical Ideas and Methods (with CD-ROM and Internet Companion for Statistics)

by Utts,Jessica M.

• ISBN13: 9780495122500
• ISBN10: 0495122505
• Edition: CD
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2005-01-26
• Publisher: Cengage Learning

Summary

Emphasizing the conceptual development of statistical ideas, STATISTICAL IDEAS AND METHODS actively engages students and explains topics in the context of excellent examples and case studies. This text balances the spirit of statistical literacy with statistical methodology taught in the introductory statistics course. Jessica Utts and Robert Heckard built the book on two learning premises: (1) New material is much easier to learn and remember if it is related to something interesting or previously known; (2) New material is easier to learn if you actively ask questions and answer them for yourself. More than any other text available, STATISTICAL IDEAS AND METHODS motivates students to develop their statistical intuition by focusing on analyzing data and interpreting results as opposed to focusing on mathematical formulation. STATISTICAL IDEAS AND METHODS provides the exciting coverage from the authors' acclaimed MIND ON STATISTICS along with coverage of additional discrete random variables, nonparametric tests of hypotheses, multiple regression, two-way analysis of variance, and ethics.

Table of Contents

Statistics Success Stories and Cautionary Tales	1	(11)
What Is Statistics?	1	(1)
Seven Statistical Stories with Morals	2	(5)
Case Study 1.1: Who Are Those Speedy Drivers?	2	(1)
Case Study 1.2: Safety in the Skies?	3	(1)
Case Study 1.3: Did Anyone Ask Whom You've Been Dating?	3	(1)
Case Study 1.4: Who Are Those Angry Women?	4	(1)
Case Study 1.5: Does Prayer Lower Blood Pressure?	5	(1)
Case Study 1.6: Does Aspirin Reduce Heart Attack Rates?	5	(1)
Case Study 1.7: Does the Internet Increase Loneliness and Depression?	6	(1)
The Common Elements in the Seven Stories	7	(5)
Key Terms	8	(1)
Exercises	9	(2)
References	11	(1)
Turning Data into Information	12	(46)
Raw Data	13	(1)
Types of Data	14	(4)
Summarizing One or Two Categorical Variables	18	(5)
Finding Information in Quantitative Data	23	(4)
Pictures for Quantitative Data	27	(5)
Numerical Summaries of Quantitative Variables	32	(7)
Bell-Shaped Distributions of Numbers	39	(19)
Key Terms	47	(1)
Exercises	48	(9)
References	57	(1)
Gathering Useful Data	58	(30)
Description or Decision? Using Data Wisely	59	(2)
Speaking the Language of Research Studies	61	(6)
Case Study 3.1: Lead Exposure and Bad Teeth	66	(1)
Designing a Good Experiment	67	(7)
Case Study 3.2: Kids and Weight Lifting	67	(7)
Case Study 3.3: Quitting Smoking with Nicotine Patches	74	(1)
Designing a Good Observational Study	74	(3)
Case Study 3.4: Baldness and Heart Attacks	75	(2)
Difficulties and Disasters in Experiments and Observational Studies	77	(11)
Key Terms	81	(1)
Exercises	82	(5)
References	87	(1)
Sampling: Surveys and How to Ask Questions	88	(42)
The Beauty of Sampling	89	(5)
Simple Random Sampling and Randomization	94	(7)
Other Sampling Methods	101	(6)
Difficulties and Disasters in Sampling	107	(5)
Case Study 4.1: The Infamous Literary Digest Poll of 1936	112	(1)
How to Ask Survey Questions	112	(18)
Case Study 4.2: No Opinion of Your Own? Let Politics Decide	120	(1)
Key Terms	121	(1)
Exercises	121	(8)
References	129	(1)
Relationships Between Quantitative Variables	130	(40)
Looking for Patterns with Scatterplots	132	(5)
Describing Linear Patterns with a Regression Line	137	(8)
Measuring Strength and Direction with Correlation	145	(7)
Why the Answers May Not Make Sense	152	(5)
Correlation Does Not Prove Causation	157	(13)
Case Study 5.1: A Weighty Issue	159	(2)
Key Terms	161	(1)
Exercises	161	(8)
References	169	(1)
Relationships Between Categorical Variables	170	(32)
Displaying Relationships Between Categorical Variables	171	(4)
Risk, Relative Risk, Odds Ratio, and Increased Risk	175	(3)
Misleading Statistics About Risk	178	(3)
The Effect of a Third Variable and Simpson's Paradox	181	(2)
Assessing the Statistical Significance of a 2 x 2 Table	183	(19)
Case Study 6.1: Drinking, Driving, and the Supreme Court	192	(1)
Key Terms	193	(1)
Exercises	193	(8)
References	201	(1)
Probability	202	(46)
Random Circumstances	204	(2)
Case Study 7.1: A Hypothetical Story---Alicia Has a Bad Day	204	(2)
Interpretations of Probability	206	(5)
Probability Definitions and Relationships	211	(5)
Basic Rules for Finding Probabilities	216	(7)
Strategies for Finding Complicated Probabilities	223	(8)
Using Simulation to Estimate Probabilities	231	(3)
Coincidences and Intuitive Judgments About Probability	234	(14)
Key Terms	240	(1)
Exercises	240	(7)
References	247	(1)
Random Variables	248	(44)
What Is a Random Variable?	249	(2)
Discrete Random Variables	251	(5)
Expectations for Random Variables	256	(5)
Binomial Random Variables	261	(5)
Continuous Random Variables	266	(2)
Normal Random Variables	268	(8)
Approximating Binomial Distribution Probabilities	276	(2)
Sums, Differences, and Combinations of Random Variables	278	(14)
Case Study 8.1: Does Caffeine Enhance the Taste of Cola?	284	(1)
Key Terms	284	(1)
Exercises	285	(6)
References	291	(1)
Means and Proportions as Random Variables	292	(36)
Understanding Dissimilarity Among Samples	293	(3)
Sampling Distributions for Sample Proportions	296	(5)
What to Expect of Sample Means	301	(8)
What to Expect in Other Situations: Central Limit Theorem	309	(2)
Sampling Distribution for Any Statistic	311	(2)
Standardized Statistics	313	(1)
Student's t-Distribution: Replacing σ with s	314	(2)
Statistical Inference	316	(12)
Case Study 9.1: Do Americans Really Vote When They Say They Do?	317	(1)
Key Terms	318	(1)
Exercises	318	(9)
References	327	(1)
Estimating Proportions with Confidence	328	(26)
The Language and Notation of Estimation	330	(1)
Margin of Error	331	(1)
Confidence Intervals	332	(2)
Calculating a Margin of Error for 95% Confidence	334	(3)
General Theory of Confidence Intervals for a Proportion	337	(6)
Choosing a Sample Size for a Survey	343	(1)
Using Confidence Intervals to Guide Decisions	344	(10)
Case Study 10.1: Extrasensory Perception Works with Movies	345	(1)
Case Study 10.2: Nicotine Patches Versus Zyban®	346	(1)
Case Study 10.3: What a Great Personality	347	(1)
Key Terms	348	(1)
Exercises	349	(4)
References	353	(1)
Testing Hypotheses About Proportions	354	(36)
Formulating Hypothesis Statements	356	(2)
The Logic of Hypothesis Testing: What if the Null Is True?	358	(2)
Reaching a Conclusion About the Two Hypotheses	360	(3)
Testing Hypotheses About a Proportion	363	(10)
The Role of Sample Size in Statistical Significance	373	(3)
Real Importance versus Statistical Significance	376	(1)
Case Study 11.1: The Internet and Loneliness: Case Study 1.7 Revisited	377	(1)
What Can Go Wrong: The Two Types of Errors	377	(13)
Case Study 11.2: An Interpretation of a p-Value Not Fit to Print	381	(1)
Key Terms	382	(1)
Exercises	382	(7)
References	389	(1)
More About Confidence Intervals	390	(46)
Examples of Different Estimation Situations	391	(3)
Standard Errors	394	(5)
Approximate 95% Confidence Intervals	399	(6)
General Confidence Intervals for One Mean or Paired Data	405	(6)
General Confidence Intervals for the Difference Between Two Means (Independent Samples)	411	(7)
The Difference Between Two Proportions (Independent Samples)	418	(4)
Understanding Any Confidence Interval	422	(14)
Case Study 12.1: Confidence Interval for Relative Risk: Case Study 3.4 Revisited	422	(1)
Case Study 12.2: Premenstrual Syndrome? Try Calcium	423	(1)
Summary of Confidence Interval Procedures	424	(1)
Key Terms	424	(1)
Exercises	425	(10)
References	435	(1)
More About Significance Tests	436	(56)
The General Ideas of Significance Testing	438	(1)
Testing Hypotheses About One Mean or Paired Data	439	(11)
Testing the Difference Between Two Means (Independent Samples)	450	(9)
Testing the Difference Between Two Population Proportions	459	(5)
The Relationship Between Significance Tests and Confidence Intervals	464	(3)
Choosing an Appropriate Inference Procedure	467	(3)
The Two Types of Errors and Their Probabilities	470	(5)
Effect Size	475	(5)
Evaluating Significance in Research Reports	480	(12)
Summary of Procedures for Hypothesis Tests	480	(1)
Key Terms	481	(1)
Exercises	481	(10)
References	491	(1)
More About Regression	492	(34)
Sample and Population Regression Models	494	(5)
Estimating the Standard Deviation for Regression	499	(4)
Inference About the Linear Regression Relationship	503	(4)
Predicting the Value of y for an Individual	507	(3)
Estimating the Mean y at a Specified x	510	(2)
Checking Conditions for Using Regression Models for Inference	512	(14)
Case Study 14.1: A Contested Election	516	(2)
Key Terms	518	(1)
Exercises	518	(7)
References	525	(1)
More About Categorical Variables	526	(34)
The Chi-square Test for Two-Way Tables	527	(11)
Analyzing 2 x 2 Tables	538	(6)
Testing Hypotheses About One Categorical Variable: Goodness of Fit	544	(16)
Case Study 15.1: Do You Mind if I Eat the Blue Ones?	548	(2)
Key Terms	550	(1)
Exercises	550	(9)
References	559	(1)
Analysis of Variance	560	(32)
Comparing Means with an ANOVA F-Test	561	(9)
Details of One-Way Analysis of Variance	570	(6)
Other Methods for Comparing Populations	576	(4)
Two-Way Analysis of Variance	580	(12)
Key Terms	583	(1)
Exercises	584	(7)
References	591	(1)
Additional Discrete Random Variables	592	(16)
Hypergeometric Distribution	593	(5)
Poisson Distribution	598	(4)
Multinomial Distribution	602	(6)
Key Terms	604	(1)
Exercises	604	(3)
References	607	(1)
Nonparametric Tests of Hypotheses	608	(22)
The Sign Test	610	(4)
The Two-Sample Rank-Sum Test	614	(5)
The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test	619	(3)
The Kruskal-Wallis Test	622	(8)
Key Terms	625	(1)
Exercises	625	(5)
Multiple Regression	630	(18)
The Multiple Linear Regression Model	632	(6)
Inference About Multiple Regression Models	638	(4)
Checking Conditions for Multiple Linear Regression	642	(6)
Key Terms	644	(1)
Exercises	644	(3)
References	647	(1)
Two-Way Analysis of Variance	648	(24)
Assumptions and Models for Two-Way ANOVA	649	(7)
Testing for Main Effects and Interactions	656	(16)
Key Terms	668	(1)
Exercises	668	(3)
References	671	(1)
Ethics	672	(20)
Ethical Treatment of Human and Animal Participants	673	(7)
Assurance of Data Quality	680	(4)
Appropriate Statistical Analysis	684	(2)
Fair Reporting of Results	686	(6)
Case Study 21.1: Science Fair Project or Fair Science Project?	689	(1)
Key Terms	690	(1)
Exercises	690	(1)
References	691	(1)
Turning Information into Wisdom	692	(19)
Beyond the Data	693	(3)
Transforming Uncertainty into Wisdom	696	(1)
Making Personal Decisions	697	(3)
Control of Societal Risks	700	(3)
Understanding Our World	703	(2)
Getting to Know You	705	(1)
Words to the Wise	706	(5)
Exercises	708	(2)
References	710	(1)
Appendix of Tables	711	(8)
Answers to Selected Exercises	719	(14)
Index	733	(15)
Credits	748