Statistical Methods in Counterterrorism

by Wilson, Alyson G.; Wilson, Gregory D.; Olwell, David H.

• ISBN13: 9780387329048
• ISBN10: 0387329048
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2006-07-21
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

All the data was out there to warn us of this impending attack, why didn't we see it?" This was a frequently asked question in the weeks and months after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001. In the wake of the attacks, statisticians moved quickly to become part of the national response to the global war on terror. This book is an overview of the emerging research program at the intersection of national security and statistical sciences. A wide range of talented researchers address issues in - Syndromic Surveillance---How do we detect and recognize bioterrorist events? - Modeling and Simulation---How do we better understand and explain complex processes so that decision makers can take the best course of action? - Biometric Authentication---How do we pick the terrorist out of the crowd of faces or better match the passport to the traveler? - Game Theory---How do we understand the rules that terrorists are playing by? This book includes technical treatments of statistical issues that will be of use to quantitative researchers as well as more general examinations of quantitative approaches to counterterrorism that will be accessible to decision makers with stronger policy backgrounds. Dr. Alyson G. Wilson is a statistician and the technical lead for DoD programs in the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. Gregory D. Wilson is a rhetorician and ethnographer in the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. David H. Olwell is chair of the Department of Systems Engineering at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.

Table of Contents

Part I Game Theory
Game Theory in an Age of Terrorism: How Can Statisticians Contribute?
Ronald D. Fricker, Jr.	3	(6)
Combining Game Theory and Risk Analysis in Counterterrorism: A Smallpox Example
David L. Banks, Steven Anderson	9	(14)
Game-Theoretic and Reliability Methods in Counterterrorism and Security
Vicki Bier	23	(20)
Part II Biometric Authentication
Biometric Authentication
David L. Banks	43	(4)
Towards Statistically Rigorous Biometric Authentication Using Facial Images
Sinjini Mitra	47	(34)
Recognition Problem of Biometrics: Nonparametric Dependence Measures and Aggregated Algorithms
Andrew L. Rukhin	81	(20)
Part III Syndromic Surveillance
Data Analysis Research Issues and Emerging Public Health Biosurveillance Directions
Henry Rolka	101	(8)
Current and Potential Statistical Methods for Monitoring Multiple Data Streams for Biosurveillance
Galit Shmueli, Stephen E. Fienberg	109	(32)
Evaluating Statistical Methods for Syndromic Surveillance
Michael A. Stoto, Ronald D. Fricker, Jr., Arvind Jain, Alexis Diamond, John O. Davies-Cole, Chevelle Glymph, Gebreyesus Kidane, Garrett Lum, LaVerne Jones, Kerda Dehan, and Christine Yuan	141	(32)
A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Syndromic Data for Biosurveillance
Laura Forsberg, Caroline Jeffery, Al Ozonoff, Marcello Pagano	173	(22)
Part IV Modeling
Modeling and Simulation for Defense and National Security
Wendy L. Martinez	195	(4)
Modeling and Parameterization for a Smallpox Simulation Study
Sarah Michalak, Gregory Wilson	199	(16)
Approaches to Modeling the Concentration Field for Adaptive Sampling of Contaminants during Site Decontamination
William K. Sieber, James S. Bennett, Abera Wouhib, Joe Fred Gonzalez, Jr., Myron J. Katzoff, Stanley A. Shulman	215	(22)
Secure Statistical Analysis of Distributed Databases
Alan F. Karr, Xiaodong Lin, Ashish P. Sanil, Jerome P. Reiter	237	(26)
Statistical Evaluation of the Impact of Background Suppression on the Sensitivity of Passive Radiation Detectors
Tom Burr, James Gattiker, Mark Mullen, George Tompkins	263	(18)
Index	281