Statistical Models and Causal Inference: A Dialogue with the Social Sciences

by David A. Freedman , Edited by David Collier , Jasjeet S. Sekhon , Philip B. Stark

• ISBN13: 9780521123907
• ISBN10: 0521123909
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2009-11-23
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

David A. Freedman presents here a definitive synthesis of his approach to causal inference in the social sciences. He explores the foundations and limitations of statistical modeling, illustrating basic arguments with examples from political science, public policy, law, and epidemiology. Freedman maintains that many new technical approaches to statistical modeling constitute not progress, but regress. Instead, he advocates a "shoe leather" methodology, which exploits natural variation to mitigate confounding and relies on intimate knowledge of the subject matter to develop meticulous research designs and eliminate rival explanations. When Freedman first enunciated this position, he was met with skepticism, in part because it was hard to believe that a mathematical statistician of his stature would favor "low-tech" approaches. But the tide is turning. Many social scientists now agree that statistical technique cannot substitute for good research design and subject matter knowledge. This book offers an integrated presentation of Freedman's views.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. xi
Editors' Introduction: Inference and Shoe Leather	p. xiii
Statistical Modeling: Foundations and Limitations
Issues in the Foundations of Statistics: Probability and Statistical Models	p. 3
Statistical Assumptions as Empirical Commitments	p. 23
Statistical Models and Shoe Leather	p. 45
Studies in Political Science, Public Policy, and Epidemiology
Methods for Census 2000 and Statistical Adjustments	p. 65
On ôSolutionsö to the Ecological Inference Problem	p. 83
Rejoinder to King	p. 97
Black Ravens, White Shoes, and Case Selection: Inference with Categorical Variables	p. 105
What is the Chance of an Earthquake?	p. 115
Salt and Blood Pressure: Conventional Wisdom Reconsidered	p. 131
The Swine Flu Vaccine and Guillain-Barré Syndrome: A Case Study in Relative Risk and Specific Causation	p. 151
Survival Analysis: An Epidemiological Hazard?	p. 169
New Developments: Progress or Regress?
On Regression Adjustments in Experiments with Several Treatments	p. 195
Randomization Does Not Justify Logistic Regression	p. 219
The Grand Leap	p. 243
On Specifying Graphical Models for Causation, and the Identification Problem	p. 255
Weighting Regressions by Propensity Scores	p. 279
On the So-Called ôHuber Sandwich Estimatorö and ôRobust Standard Errorsö	p. 295
Endogeneity in Probit Response Models	p. 305
Diagnostics Cannot Have Much Power Against General Alternatives	p. 323
Shoe Leather Revisited
On Types of Scientific Inquiry: The Role of Qualitative Reasoning	p. 337
References and Further Reading	p. 357
Index	p. 393
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