Striking First Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy

by Mueller, Karl P.; Castillo, Jasen J.; Morgan, Forrest E.; Pegahi, Negeen; Rosen, Brian

• ISBN13: 9780833038814
• ISBN10: 0833038818
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2006-10-12
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

RAND Project AIR FORCE studied the post-9/11 shift in U.S. defense policy emphasis toward preemptive and preventive attack, asking under what conditions preemptive or preventive attack is worth considering as a response to perceived threats. It considered the role such first-strike strategies are likely to play in future U.S. national security policy. Finally, it identified implications these conclusions have for military planners and policymakers as they prepare to deal with national security threats in the next decade.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures and Table	p. ix
Summary	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xxvii
Glossary	p. xxix
Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attacks	p. 1
Introduction	p. 1
The Doctrine of Preemption and the U.S. National Security Strategy	p. 3
Preemption and Prevention	p. 6
Preemptive Attack	p. 6
Preventive Attack	p. 8
Anticipatory Attack	p. 10
Anticipatory Attack Versus Operational Preemption	p. 14
Studying Preemptive and Preventive Attack	p. 15
The Best Defense? When and Why States Strike First	p. 19
Introduction	p. 19
Prevention and Preemption in International Politics	p. 20
Preemptive War and First-Strike Advantage	p. 22
Preventive War and the Balance of Power	p. 29
The Costs, Benefits, and Risks of Anticipatory Attack	p. 32
The Advantage of Striking First	p. 33
The Certainty of the Threat	p. 36
Weighing the Pros and Cons of Anticipatory Attack	p. 38
Attacking in Self-Defense: Legality and Legitimacy of Striking First	p. 43
The United States' View of Anticipatory Attack	p. 43
International Law	p. 48
Legal Use of Force	p. 50
Force Authorized by the Security Council	p. 51
Self-Defense	p. 52
Proportionality	p. 54
Necessity	p. 55
Alternative Standards for Anticipatory Self-Defense	p. 59
Anticipatory Attack Against Nonstate Actors	p. 66
Entering Other States to Attack Nonstate Actors	p. 61
The Significance of Legality	p. 71
The U.N. Security Council	p. 74
The International Court of Justice	p. 74
The International Criminal Court	p. 75
Legitimacy	p. 86
Conclusion	p. 89
Preemptive and Preventive Strategies in Future U.S. National Security Policy: Prospects and Implications	p. 91
Striking First: Rhetoric and Reality	p. 92
Changing Perceptions of Power and Threats	p. 93
Persistent Obstacles to Striking First	p. 94
Anticipatory Attacks After Operation Iraqi Freedom	p. 96
Anticipatory Attack in Future National Security Strategies	p. 98
Leading Scenarios for U.S. Anticipatory Attack	p. 99
Foiling or Blunting Cross-Border Aggression	p. 99
Striking Violent Nonstate Actors to Avert Terrorism	p. 101
Attacking States to Limit the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction	p. 103
Political Consequences of Anticipatory Attack	p. 105
Anticipatory Attack and Future U.S. Defense Planning	p. 107
Anticipatory Attack as a Niche Contingency	p. 107
Intelligence Requirements for Striking First	p. 109
Other Military Capabilities for Anticipatory Attack	p. 112
The Importance of Operational Preemption	p. 114
Dangers of Relying on Preemptive and Preventive Attack	p. 115
Preemptive Attack as a Threat to the United States	p. 116
The Nexus of Politics and War	p. 118
U.S. Preventive Attack Cases	p. 121
U.S. Consideration of Preventive War Against the USSR	p. 121
U.S. Consideration of Preventive Attack Against China	p. 152
The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962	p. 171
The Invasion of Grenada, 1983	p. 182
Israeli Preemptive and Preventive Attack Cases	p. 189
Introduction	p. 189
The Sinai Campaign, 1956	p. 191
The Six-Day War, 1967	p. 198
The October War, 1973	p. 206
The Osirak Raid, 1981	p. 211
Counterterrorist Anticipatory Attack Cases	p. 219
Introduction	p. 219
The Israeli Assassination Attempt Against Khaled Mishal, 1997	p. 220
The Tirana Raids, 1998	p. 229
Hellfire Strike in Yemen, 2002	p. 241
The Jordanian Crackdown in Ma'an, 2002	p. 256
NSS Statements on Preemptive and Preventive Attack	p. 267
References	p. 271
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