Structural Performance Probability-Based Assessment

by Cremona, Christian

• ISBN13: 9781848212367
• ISBN10: 1848212364
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2011-06-13
• Publisher: Wiley-ISTE

Summary

This book covers the development of efficient methods for the assessment and the management of civil structures is today a major challenge from economical, social and environmental aspects. Tools for handling uncertainties in loads, geometry, material properties, construction and operating conditions are nowadays essential. Covers the key concepts across topics including probability theory and statistics, structural safety, performance-based assessment, modelling uncertainties and principles of decision theory.

Author Biography

Christian Cremona is in charge of the civil engineering and construction group in the direction for research and innovation in the French Ministry for Sustainable Development.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. xi
Concepts from Probability Theory and Statistics	p. 1
The role of probability in civil engineering	p. 1
Physical and statistical uncertainties	p. 2
Axiomatics	p. 3
Probabilities	p. 3
Axioms	p. 3
Consequences	p. 5
Conditional probabilities	p. 5
Random variables - distributions	p. 8
Definitions	p. 8
Sampling	p. 8
Probability density function	p. 10
Main descriptors of a random variable	p. 11
Joint variables	p. 15
Independent variables	p. 16
Correlation coefficient	p. 16
Functions of random variables	p. 18
Approximate moments	p. 20
Useful random variables	p. 21
Discrete variables	p. 21
Normal distribution	p. 25
Lognormal distribution	p. 26
Beta distribution	p. 28
Exponential distribution	p. 29
Gamma distribution	p. 30
tudent's t-distribution	p. 31
Limit theorems	p. 31
Law of large numbers	p. 32
Limit theorems	p. 35
Modeling random variables	p. 38
Point estimation	p. 39
Interval estimation	p. 43
Estimation of fractiles	p. 46
Estimation of the distribution	p. 48
Distribution of extremes	p. 51
Significance testing	p. 58
Type I and II errors	p. 60
Usual tests	p. 61
Bayesian analysis	p. 65
A priori and a posteriori distributions	p. 66
Updating estimators	p. 68
Bayesian networks	p. 70
Stochastic processes	p. 74
Basic principles	p. 74
Markovian chains	p. 75
State probability	p. 76
Time between stages	p. 78
Structural Safety, Performance and Risk	p. 81
Introduction	p. 81
Safety and risk	p. 82
Concepts of safety	p. 82
Concept of risk related to a danger or threat	p. 83
Risk assessment	p. 84
Hazard	p. 85
Risk evaluation and acceptable risk	p. 87
Risk assessment	p. 87
Acceptable risk	p. 89
Risk-based management	p. 96
Strategies	p. 96
Risk analysis	p. 96
Legal point of view for a risk-based approach	p. 104
Examples of failure: bridges	p. 105
From safety to performance	p. 110
Functions of a structure	p. 110
Performance	p. 112
Evolution of structural functionality	p. 119
Consequences of performance losses	p. 121
Generalization of the concept of risk	p. 121
Human errors	p. 122
Performance-based Assessment	p. 125
Analysis methods and structural safety	p. 125
Allowable stress principle	p. 128
Limit states and partial factors	p. 128
Probability-based approach	p. 132
Safety and performance principles	p. 134
New structures	p. 135
Existing structures	p. 135
Invariant measures	p. 136
Reliability theory	p. 138
Basic problem	p. 138
Convolution integral	p. 139
Normal variables	p. 140
Geometric expression of the reliability index	p. 142
Joint distribution representation	p. 145
Limit state with more than two uncorrelated normal variables	p. 145
Limit state with correlated variables	p. 148
General formulation	p. 150
Failure component-failure mode	p. 150
Safety margins - limit state functions	p. 150
Calculation methods	p. 151
Basler-Cornell index	p. 152
Hasofer-Lind index	p. 158
Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm	p. 161
Isoprobability transformations	p. 162
Calculation of the failure probability	p. 168
Monte-Carlo methods	p. 172
Response surfaces	p. 176
Sensitivity measures	p. 183
System reliability	p. 187
Mathematical concepts	p. 190
Calculation of the system probability of failure	p. 199
Robustness and vulnerability	p. 205
Determination of collapse/failure mechanisms	p. 208
Generation of safety margins for truss structures	p. 208
P-unzipping method	p. 213
Calibration of partial factors	p. 217
Nature of a probabilistic calculation	p. 224
Failure probabilities and acceptable risks	p. 225
Acceptable failure probabilities	p. 225
Concept of acceptable risk	p. 230
Remarks	p. 233
Structural Assessment of Existing Structures	p. 235
Introduction	p. 235
Assessment rules	p. 236
Limits when using design rules	p. 236
Main stages in structural assessment	p. 237
Structural safety assessment	p. 239
Basic concept	p. 240
First approach	p. 240
Second approach	p. 242
Third approach	p. 244
Fourth approach	p. 250
Implementing rating factors	p. 258
General remarks on the methods	p. 260
Specificities of Existing Structures	p. 261
Loads	p. 261
Introduction	p. 261
Stochastic processes	p. 264
Spatial variability	p. 285
Load combinations	p. 286
Permanent loads	p. 288
Live loads	p. 291
Environmental loads	p. 298
Exceptional loads	p. 325
Resistance	p. 331
Material properties and uncertainties	p. 332
Properties of reinforcing and prestressing steel	p. 334
properties of structural steel	p. 340
Properties of concrete	p. 341
Geometric variability	p. 348
Scale effects	p. 351
Principles of Decision Theory	p. 355
Introduction	p. 355
The decision model	p. 356
Decision tree	p. 356
Decision criterion	p. 360
Terminal decision analysis	p. 361
Information value	p. 363
Controls and inspections	p. 364
Detection probability: a discrete case	p. 367
Detection probability: a continuous case	p. 375
Load tests	p. 381
Maintenance optimization	p. 384
Identification of degradations and failure modes	p. 387
Decision process and RBI analysis	p. 389
Maintenance types	p. 390
Life cycle cost analysis	p. 391
Discount calculations	p. 392
Discount rate	p. 394
Some results from discounting analysis	p. 396
Condition, working lifetime and life cycles	p. 398
Maintenance strategies	p. 403
Corrective maintenance	p. 404
Systematic maintenance	p. 405
Conditional maintenance	p. 406
Bibliography	p. 413
Index	p. 423
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