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Technical analysis is a vital tool for any trader, asset manager, or investor who wants to earn top returns. Successful Stock Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers lets you combine technical analysis and fundamental analysis using existing technical signals to improve your investing performance. Author Tom Lloyd Sr. explains all the technical indicators you need to know, including moving averages, relative strength, support and resistance, sell and buy signals, candlesticks, point and figure charts, Fibonacci levels, Bollinger Bands, and both classic and new indicators. Merging these technical indicators with fundamental analysis will keep you in a portfolio of outperforming stocks, sharpen your fundamental buy discipline, and put your sell discipline on autopilot.
Whether you're an individual investor who wants to beat the indexes, a trader looking for high-risk, high-return positions, or a portfolio manager who wants to take a fundamental approach, this an ideal guide to technical analysis and indicators.
Thomas K. Lloyd Sr. has spent twenty-five years as a consultant teaching professional portfolio managers how to use technical analysis. He holds an MBA in accounting and formerly taught an investing course at St. John's University using an integrated fundamental and technical approach. His articles have appeared in numerous media outlets, including Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine, SeekingAlpha.com, and MarketWatch.com.
Preface
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Chapter 1 Using Moving Averages and Relative Strength Performance to Beat the Index Relative Strength Index, Money Flow Index, Keltner Channels and Standard Deviation, with Apple Exhibits
Know the Playing Field
Apple Computer’s 200-Day Moving Average
20, 50 and 200-day Moving Averages
Relative Strength versus the S&P 500 Index
Keltner Channels
Mean Reversion
Breakout Signal
Apple’s Top at $644
Relative Strength Index, RSI
Money Flow Index, MFI
Standard Deviation (StdDev)
Relative Strength Performance, AAPL: $SPX
Supply and Demand
Summary
Chapter 2 On-Balance Volume, Accumulation/Distribution, Chaikin Money Flow, Pivot Point, Resistance and Support, Point & Figure Chart, with Apple and Google Exhibits
Price and Volume
Chaikin Money Flow, CMF
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence, MACD
Value Added Signals
Using Moving Averages
Pivot Point, Support and Resistance Points
Reverse Head and Shoulders Bottom
Apple Earnings Report
Case Study Questions on Apple
Planning for Apple’s Earnings Report
You Must Now Make a Decision on Apple before Earnings
Answer to the Case Study Questions
Summary of the Apple Case Study
Google Case Study
Summary of the Google Case Study
Chapter 3 Bottoms and Tops, Buying and Selling Cycles, Percentage Price Oscillator, PPO, with IBM and Hewlett-Packard Exhibits
Inverted Head & Shoulders Bottom
Double Top and “V” Bottom
Resistance
Cycles
Writing Puts and Calls
The “Cloud Stocks” for the Future
Long-term Investing
Buy and Hold Strategy Is Problematic
Case Study of Hewlett-Packard
Case Study Answer
Price Percentage Oscillator, PPO
My Answer to the Case Study
Chapter 4 Sell Signals Double Top, Failed Momentum, 10- and 20-day Trends, Broken Support, Aroon Oscillator, and Directional Movement with ADX, with Herbalife Exhibits
Technical Signals before a Blowup
Technical Signals after a Blowup
Double Top Warning
The 10- and 20-day Moving Average Signals
Aroon Oscillator and Directional Movement
Comments after the Herbalife Blowup
Case Study Challenge on Herbalife
Answers to the Case Study Questions
The Daily Chart Looks More Bearish
Chapter 5 Supply and Demand, Candlestick Signals, Point & Figure Chart, with Facebook Exhibits
Candlestick Sell Signal for Facebook
Failed Facebook vs. Lucky LinkedIn
Portfolio Managers Prefer Fundamental Analysis
The Facebook IPO Game
Facebook Selloff
Facebook Dives Because of Supply
Traders Look for Inefficient Markets
Facebook Secrets Took Price Down
Facebook: The Rush to Sell On the First Day
Facebook Price In Search Of a Bottom
Why Is Price Going Down?
Seeing Demand/Supply on the Chart
Waiting for Buy Signals
Picture of a “Busted IPO”
Point & Figure Chart Shows Continued Selling
On-Balance Volume
Accumulation/ Distribution
Summary Picture of Supply and Demand
Facebook’s First Earnings Report
CMF Signal
MFI and MACD Signals
Gravestone Doji Candlestick Signal
Pivot Point Support/ Resistance Levels
Day trading Signals
Tremendous Supply Overhang
Chapter 6 Breakout Signals Ascending Triangle, Bullish Rectangle, Double Bottom, Falling Wedge, with Microsoft, Lululemon and Home Depot Exhibits
Double Bottom and Bullish Rectangle Breakout
What Is Wrong With Microsoft?
What Caused Microsoft to Breakout?
Falling Wedge Signals Double Bottom
Candlestick Hammer A Bullish Reversal Signal
Case Study: Home Depot Ascending Triangle
Chapter 7 Relative Strength Index, Stochastic, MACD, with Lululemon Exhibits
Case Study: LULU Before Earnings Are Reported
What Are You Ready To Do?
Answer to the Case Study
Now You Are Ready to Sell Call Options?
False Sell Signals in the 200-Day and Relative Strength
Chapter 8 Blow-Off Top, Trend Line Reversal, Channel Breakout, Fan Lines, with Green Mountain Coffee Exhibits
Why Study Stocks That Blowup?
How to Make Money When a Stock Crashes
Blow-Off Top and Trend Reversal
Sell Signals before the Fall
Selling Short after Einhorn’s Presentation
The Fatal Sell Signals
Bottom-Fishing GMCR, A Year Later
Looking for Buy Signals
Trading the Dead Cat Bounce
Chapter 9 Classic Top, Death Cross, Double Bottom, Bull Trap, Dead Cat Bounce, with Netflix Exhibits
Classic Top: End of a Long-term Uptrend
You Must Have a Sell Discipline
Death Cross, Dead Cat Bounce to a Bull Trap, Double Bottom
Buy Signals to Double Your Money on the Dead Cat Bounce
Dead Cat Bounce Up Fails
Broken “W” Bottom –Negative Surprise
Second Dead Cat Bounce and Second Failure
Chapter 10 Gaps, Divergences, Breakdowns and Breakouts, Oscillators, with Research In Motion Exhibits
Apple vs. RIMM, Stock Pairs Hedging
The Fall of RIMM from $148 to $35
Negative Divergence
Double Bottom, Dead Cat Bounce, Double Top, Capitulation
Oversold/Overbought Oscillator
RIMM Breakout Buy Signals
RIMM’s Double Top Dive from $88 to $6
RIMM: All Signals Bearish for Three Years
Chapter 11 Relative Strength, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci Levels, with Priceline Exhibits
Guidelines for Success
Priceline Five-Year Performance vs. Apple
Case Study Challenge for Priceline
Fundamental Models
Priceline Short-term Daily Chart Signals
Priceline Long-term Weekly Chart
Answer For the Priceline Case Study
My Postmortem Article on MarketWatch.com
Proactive Before Earnings
Elliott Wave Targets a $440 Downside Test
Chapter 12 Evolution of Technical Signals from A to Z, with LinkedIn Exhibits
LinkedIn IPO Successful
LinkedIn Selloff after Doubling the First Day
Practice with the LinkedIn Signals
Do You Buy LinkedIn on Weakness?
LNKD Case Study Challenge
Wall Street Price Targets for LNKD
What the Quants Are Saying
What the Charts Are Saying About Demand and Supply
Your Decision Required Before LNKD Earnings Are Announced
Answers for LNKD Case Study
Chapter 13 Using the 200-Day Moving Average and Relative Strength to Rotate In and Out of Winners, with Starbucks Exhibits
Portfolio Managers Create Price Trends
What Do Portfolio Managers Look At?
What Do Traders Look At?
Monthly Chart for Portfolio Managers
Leading Sell Signals
What Will the Weekly Chart Do for the Portfolio Manager?
Positive Up Arrows on Exhibit 13.3
How Do You Trade SBUX Short-term?
Day Trading SBUX after Good Earnings
Chapter 14 Technical Signals for Your Buy and Sell Discipline, From Stochastics to the 200-day Moving Average, with Chipotle Mexican Grill Exhibits Price Jumps on the Analyst Upgrade
Day Trading the News
Trading Systems
Trading Information
Day Trading Buy Signals
Sell Signals on the Short-Term Daily Chart
Buying at the Bottom
Change in Character from Bull to Bear
Selling at the Top
Hammer Candlestick Reversal Signal
Counting Down with Fibonacci and Elliott
Optimize Entry Level after Fundamental Buy Signal
Waiting for the Bottom
Chapter 15 Using Money Flow, Trend Lines, RSI, Stochastic, MACD and Buy/Sell Signals to Rotate In and Out of Losers, with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs Exhibits
JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs vs. the Regulators
JP Morgan Buy/Sell Signals
Signals for Stocks in a Trading Range
Buying the Bottom for a Trade
Trader’s Buy Signals
Portfolio Manager’s Buy/Sell Signals
Goldman Sachs, Best of Breed
Goldman’s Latest Sell Signal
Is the GS Bottom at $86 or $43?
Chapter 16 Day Trading Using Candlesticks, Real Time Volume and Price, RSI, MFI, MACD, 20-50 Minute Moving Averages, with Salesforce Exhibits
What Is the World of Trading?
Trading Technology
How Has Technical Analysis Changed?
Trading Profitably
Case Study in Trading Salesforce.com
Answers to Monday’s Day Trading Example
Time For the Second Trade on Monday, What Will You Do?
Answer to the Second Trade on Monday
Third Trade for Monday
Answer to Monday’s Third Trade
Tuesday’s Day Trading Case Question for You to Answer
Answer to Tuesday’s Case Study Challenge
There Is Much More to Day Trading
Chapter 17 Investors Need Reliable Signals 50 and 200-Day Moving Averages, Money Flow, Relative Strength, Directional Movement, with Apple, Home Depot and Wal-Mart Exhibits
Finding Great Stocks Such As Apple
Dow Thirty Stocks
Home Depot, Anatomy of a Buy
Technical Analysis with Fundamentals
Wal-Mart, Anatomy of a Buy on Weakness
Chapter 18 Traders Need Stocks to Trade Using Candlesticks, Volume, Ten Minute Chart, Stochastic, MACD, RSI, with Gamestop, Green Mountain Coffee and JC Penney Exhibits
Traders Are Early Birds
Traders Are Opportunistic
Traders Have a List of Longs and Shorts
Gamestop on the Long List but It’s a Trading Short
Trading the Positive Surprise in Green Mountain Coffee
Why No Short Squeeze in GMCR?
Preparing a Trader’s Short List
Chapter 19 Winning in the Stock Market Using Technical Analysis, S&P 500 Index, SPY, Reading the Market with SPY Exhibits
What Is the Current Status of the Market?
Elliott Waves
Using the Stock Trader’s Almanac
Identifying Tops in the Market
Is This a Market Top?
Percentage Price Oscillator’s (PP0) Buy/Sell Signals
Moving Average Convergence Divergence’s (MACD) Buy/Sell Signals
Know Sure Thing (KST) Buy/Sell Signals
Keltner Channels, (KELT) Buy/Sell Signals
Closer View of the Monthly Chart
Switching to the Weekly Chart Exhibit 19.3
The Daily Chart Everyone Is Looking At
The Day Trader Is Trying to Dodge the Fiscal Cliff News
Day Trading 5-Minute Chart, Exhibit 19.5
Trader’s Buy Signals, Blue Line on Exhibit 19.5
Trader’s Sell Signals, Red Line on Exhibit 19.5
About the Companion Website
Index
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