Comprehensive in scope, it describes the process of system safety--from the creation and management of a safety program on a system under development to the analysis that must be performed as this system is designed and produced to assure acceptable risk in its operation. Unique in its coverage, it is the only work on this subject that combines full descriptions of the management and analysis processes and procedures in one handy volume. Designed for both system safety managers and engineers, it incorporates the safety procedures used by the Department of Defense and NASA and explains basic statistical methods and network analysis methods which provide an understanding of the engineering analysis methods that follow.

Harold E. Roland is the author of System Safety Engineering and Management, 2nd Edition, published by Wiley.

Brian Moriarty is the author of System Safety Engineering and Management, 2nd Edition, published by Wiley.

Preface

v

PART I MANAGEMENT

1

(100)

Introduction

3

(18)

Definitions

5

(3)

The Hazard

6

(1)

The System

6

(1)

The Stimulus

6

(1)

The Accident

7

(1)

Safety

7

(1)

Risk

7

(1)

Other Hazard Definitions

8

(1)

System Safety Concept

8

(2)

What Is System Safety?

8

(2)

System Safety History

10

(2)

System Safety Objective

12

(6)

Procedure for Achieving the Objective

13

(5)

System Safety as a Design Parameter

18

(3)

MIL--STD--882

19

(2)

System Life Cycle

21

(8)

Life Cycle Definitions

21

(1)

System Safety Control Milestones

22

(1)

Concept Phase

23

(1)

Definition Phase

23

(4)

Development Phase

27

(1)

Production Phase

27

(1)

Deployment Phase

28

(1)

System Safety Implementation

29

(33)

Policy and Procedures

29

(3)

Product Assurance Organizations

32

(3)

System Safety Program Plan (SSPP)

35

(17)

Elements of the System Safety Program Plan

35

(3)

Organization of the SSPP

38

(2)

Program Tasks, Schedules, and Milestones

40

(1)

Criteria

41

(3)

Precedence

44

(1)

Hazard Analyses

44

(1)

Risk Assessment

45

(1)

Data

46

(1)

Testing and Demonstration

47

(1)

Training

48

(1)

Audit Program

49

(3)

System Interfacing

52

(1)

Human Engineering

53

(6)

Design of the Workplace

55

(1)

Environment

56

(1)

Causes of Errors

56

(2)

Design vs. Procedural Safeguards

58

(1)

Software Considerations

59

(3)

System Safety Management Organization

62

(7)

Objectives of Organization

62

(4)

Management Interface Requirements

66

(3)

System Safety Control

69

(13)

Contractor Survey and Evaluation

69

(2)

Evaluation of Contractor's Proposals

71

(2)

Engineering Controls

73

(2)

Milestone Checkpoints

75

(7)

System Safety in System Operation

82

(19)

System Acceptance

82

(2)

Participation in Accident Investigations

84

(1)

Engineering Changes

85

(1)

Training

86

(1)

Uses of Data

87

(1)

Maintenance

88

(3)

System Termination

91

(10)

Exercises for Part I

92

(6)

References and Bibliography

98

(3)

PART II STATISTICAL METHODS

101

(62)

Probability---A Safety Evaluation Tool

103

(10)

Probability Laws

104

(5)

Addition Law

105

(1)

Multiplication Law

105

(1)

Complementary Law

106

(1)

Examples

107

(2)

Permutations and Combinations

109

(4)

Descriptive Data Measures

113

(6)

Measures of Central Tendency

114

(2)

Measures of Dispersion

116

(3)

Methods of Safety Data Analysis

119

(5)

Correlation

119

(1)

Regression

120

(1)

Analysis of Variance (Anova)

121

(1)

Contingency Tables

122

(1)

Summary

123

(1)

Binomial Distribution

124

(5)

Multinomial Distribution

129

(2)

Hypergeometric Distribution

131

(2)

Poisson Distribution

133

(7)

Exponential Distribution

135

(5)

Normal Distribution

140

(5)

Lognormal Distribution

145

(3)

Weibull Distribution

148

(2)

Confidence Limits

150

(13)

Normal Distribution Confidence Intervals (Known σ)

151

(1)

t Distribution Confidence Intervals (Unknown σ)

151

(2)

Chi-Square Confidence Intervals

153

(10)

Exercises for Part II

157

(5)

References and Bibliography

162

(1)

PART III NETWORK ANALYSIS

163

(28)

Event Systems

165

(9)

Series Systems

166

(2)

Parallel Systems

168

(1)

Series--Parallel Systems

169

(5)

Boolean Algebra

174

(9)

Boolean Operators

174

(6)

Conditional Probability---Bayes' Theorem

180

(3)

Cut Sets

183

(8)

Cut Set Development

184

(2)

System Duals---Path Sets

186

(5)

Exercises for Part III

188

(2)

References and Bibliography

190

(1)

PART IV HAZARD ANALYSIS

191

(108)

Introduction

193

(4)

System Safety Engineering

194

(3)

Elements of Hazard Analysis

197

(9)

Hazard Severity

198

(1)

Hazard Likelihood

199

(2)

Hazard Probability

200

(1)

Hazard Control

201

(2)

Hazard Index

203

(1)

Hazard Control Design Criteria

204

(2)

Preliminary Hazard Analysis

206

(7)

Format of Preliminary Hazard Analysis

208

(4)

PHA Example

212

(1)

Subsystem Hazard Analysis

213

(5)

SSHA Example

214

(4)

System Hazard Analysis

218

(3)

Operating and Support Hazard Analysis

221

(2)

Fault Hazard Analysis

223

(3)

Fault Hazard Analysis Format

223

(2)

Fault Hazard Analysis Example

225

(1)

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis

226

(3)

Fault Tree Analysis

229

(47)

Fault Tree Symbology

230

(8)

Event Symbols

231

(2)

Logic Symbols

233

(5)

Fault Tree Synthesis

238

(8)

Cut Set Development

246

(10)

OR Gate

247

(3)

And Gate

250

(1)

Boolean Equation

251

(2)

Boolean Equivalent Tree

253

(1)

Path Sets

253

(1)

Fault Tree and Network Methods

254

(2)

Fault Tree Quantification

256

(16)

Fault Rate

257

(1)

Mean Down Time

257

(1)

Unreliability

258

(2)

Unavailability

260

(1)

Rate of Fault

261

(2)

Expected Number of Faults

263

(1)

Cut Set Importance

264

(1)

Event Importance

265

(1)

Order Importance

266

(1)

Undependability

267

(1)

Common Cause Analysis

268

(1)

Fault Tree Computer-aided Analysis

269

(2)

Monte Carlo Fault Tree Analysis

271

(1)

Fault Tree Example Problem

272

(4)

Software Hazard Analysis

276

(14)

Elements of a Software Safety Program

279

(5)

Petri Nets

284

(2)

Rules and Guidelines

286

(4)

Documentation of Designs and Intents

287

(1)

Software---CPU Design Rules

287

(1)

CPU---Hardware Interface Rules

288

(1)

Operating System Software Rules

289

(1)

Operator Interface Rules

289

(1)

Sneak Circuit Analysis

290

(9)

Sneak Analysis Techniques

291

(2)

Topological Patterns

291

(2)

Sneak Circuit Guidelines

293

(6)

Exercises for Part IV

294

(1)

References and Bibliography

295

(4)

PART V RISK ANALYSIS

299

(32)

Risk Assessment in Safety

301

(30)

Introduction

301

(1)

Nature of Risk

301

(3)

Risk Assessment Model

304

(2)

Risk Decision Process

306

(4)

Risk Projection

310

(4)

Risk Assessment and Management

314

(1)

Safety Value Analysis

315

(16)

Value Analysis Process

316

(1)

Expected Value

317

(2)

Cost of Safety

319

(1)

Value of Time

320

(2)

Engineering Economic Factors

322

(3)

Value of Time Calculations

325

(4)

Exercises for Part V

329

(1)

References and Bibliography

330

(1)

PART VI DECISION ANALYSIS

331

(22)

Decision Methods for Safety

333

(20)

Delphi and Related Methods

335

(1)

Committee Decision Methods

336

(1)

Metric Matrix Hierarchical Analysis

336

(3)

Game Theory

339

(2)

Payoff Matrix Reduction

341

(1)

Minimax--Maximin Decision Methods

342

(2)

Regret Decision Criteria

344

(1)

Multiattribute Decision Making

345

(8)

Utility Value Theory

347

(1)

Completing the Decision Matrices

348

(3)

Exercises for Part VI

351

(1)

References and Bibliography

351

(2)

Appendix A Statistical Tables

353

(5)

Table A.1---Areas under the Normal Curve

354

(2)

Table A.2---Fractiles of the X2 Distribution

356

(2)

Appendix B Answers to Quantitative Exercises

358

(5)

Index

363

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