Taking Chances Winning with Probability

by Haigh, John

• ISBN13: 9780198502913
• ISBN10: 0198502915
• Edition: Reprint
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-08-17
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse. Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella.Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, includingfootball pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour.

Table of Contents

What is probability?	1	(13)
Think straight	3	(1)
The inviolable rule	4	(1)
Some working methods	5	(2)
Long runs	7	(2)
Averages and variability	9	(4)
Lotteries	13	(23)
Your chance of winning	14	(6)
A winning strategy?	20	(6)
More than one ticket?	26	(2)
Are the numbers drawn really random?	28	(6)
Summary	34	(2)
Football Pools, Premium Bonds	36	(13)
Football Pools	36	(6)
Premium Bonds	42	(3)
The best gamble?	45	(4)
One coin, many games	49	(19)
How's your intuition?	49	(2)
Game on	51	(3)
Penney-ante	54	(5)
How long are you in the lead?	59	(6)
Postscript	65	(1)
Summary	65	(1)
Test yourself quiz	66	(2)
Dice	68	(22)
One die	68	(2)
Two dice---backgammon	70	(9)
Tow dice---Monopoly	79	(3)
Tow dice---craps	82	(1)
Three or more dice---totals	83	(2)
Four dice---Chevalier de Mere's problem	85	(1)
Bettering an opponent	86	(1)
Fairground games	87	(3)
Games with few choices	90	(33)
The dating game	91	(1)
An easier game	92	(1)
A fisherman's tale	93	(1)
Back to Table 6.2	94	(3)
A fair game?	97	(1)
Finding the best strategies	98	(2)
Other games	100	(6)
Two choices for Roy, many for Colin	106	(1)
Counter signals	107	(4)
Games animals play	111	(4)
The battle of the sexes	115	(3)
Postscript	118	(1)
Summary	119	(2)
Test yourself quiz	121	(2)
Waiting, waiting, waiting	123	(22)
Birthdays	123	(4)
The Spoilers (2)	127	(1)
Other matches	128	(2)
More than one match?	130	(1)
Packs of cards (1)	131	(2)
Packs of cards (2)	133	(3)
Card/coupon collecting	136	(6)
The secretary problem	142	(3)
Let's play best of three	145	(16)
Snooker-type games	146	(6)
Squash-type games	152	(3)
Anyone for tennis?	155	(4)
Summary	159	(2)
TV games	161	(23)
Find the lady	161	(2)
Wipeout	163	(12)
The Showcase showdown	175	(3)
Blockbusters	178	(4)
Postcript	182	(2)
Casino games	184	(32)
Roulette	185	(16)
Casino stud poker	201	(9)
Baccarat chemin de fer	210	(3)
Other casino games	213	(2)
Test yourself quiz	215	(1)
Bookies, the Tote, spread betting	216	(23)
Bookmakers	216	(11)
Can you win from the bookies?	227	(3)
The Tote	230	(2)
Spread betting	232	(7)
This sporting life	239	(18)
Soccer	239	(6)
Golf	245	(2)
Cricket	247	(4)
Tennis	251	(3)
Tournament formats	254	(3)
Lucky for some---miscellanea	257	(22)
Cards-whist, bridge	257	(6)
Shuffling	263	(2)
Dividing the prize	265	(1)
Vowel or consonant?	266	(3)
Benford's law	269	(4)
Guess the other colour	273	(1)
At least two Aces?	274	(3)
Which player is favoured?	277	(2)
Appendix I. Counting	279	(6)
Appendix II. Probability	285	(12)
Appendix III. Averages and variability	297	(10)
Appendix IV. Goodnes-of-fit tests	307	(8)
Appendix V. The Kelly strategy	315	(4)
Solutions to test yourself quizzes	319	(5)
Literature cited	324	(3)
Index	327