Taking Charge A Bipartisan Report to the President-Elect on Foreign Policy and National Security Transition

by Carlucci, Frank; Hunter, Robert; Khalilzad, Zalmay

• ISBN13: 9780833029577
• ISBN10: 0833029576
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-02-12
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

A report prepared by Transition 2001, a bipartisan panel of about 60 American leaders in the areas of foreign and defense policy, outlining the most important national security challenges for the new administration, suggesting prioritie

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
The Transition 2001 Panel	iv
Section I: Introduction
U.S. Grand Strategy: Setting a New Direction	3	(18)
Zalmay Khalilzad
Integrate Major Powers and Key Regional States into the International System	6	(2)
Preventing Domination of Critical Regions	8	(3)
Contain and Mitigate Any Backlash Against Globalization	11	(1)
Limit, Reduce, and Secure WMD and Missiles, and Protect Against Terrorism	12	(2)
Transform the U.S. Military and Strengthen Military Cooperation with Allies	14	(2)
Work Proactively to Improve the International Security Environment	16	(5)
Section II: Alliances
U.S. Policy Toward European Defense	21	(12)
James Thomson
Background	21	(2)
The U.S. Dilemma	23	(3)
The European Challenge	26	(4)
Conclusions	30	(3)
NATO Enlargement: Decisions for the New President	33	(14)
Robert E. Hunter
The Package of Efforts	35	(2)
Deciding on the Invitees	37	(3)
The Range of Alternatives	40	(4)
Conclusion	44	(1)
Appendix	44	(3)
U.S. Alliance Relations in the Global Era	47	(14)
David C. Gompert
Strong Friendships, Shaky Alliances	47	(2)
Strategically Pointless, or Just Rudderless?	49	(1)
The Alternatives---First Pass	50	(2)
Farewell to Free-Riding?	52	(2)
Does the United States Want Followers or Partners?	54	(2)
The Alternatives---Second Pass	56	(1)
Conclusion	57	(4)
Section III: Major Powers and Key Regions
Prospects and Possibilities for U.S.-Russian Relations	61	(10)
Jeremy R. Azrael
U.S. Strategy Toward China	71	(8)
Zalmay Khalilzad
Where Is China Heading?	71	(3)
U.S. Policy Alternatives	74	(3)
Engagement	74	(2)
Containment	76	(1)
Recommended Strategy: `Congagement'	77	(2)
Policy Toward Greece and Turkey	79	(10)
Ian O. Lesser
New Challenges and Opportunities	79	(4)
What Are U.S. Interests? What Is at Stake?	83	(1)
Policy Options	84	(2)
Next Steps	86	(3)
The Balkans: Challenges and Priorities for the Next Administration	89	(10)
F. Stephen Larrabee
U.S. Interests in the Balkans	89	(1)
Staying Engaged	90	(5)
Promoting Democratization and Reform in Serbia	92	(1)
The Kosovo Dilemma	93	(2)
Macedonia: Fostering Ethnic Harmony	95	(1)
Stabilizing the Periphery	96	(1)
Conclusion	97	(2)
South Asia: U.S. Policy Choices	99	(12)
Ashley J. Tellis
Issue One: India and Pakistan	99	(8)
Issue Two: Civil War in Afghanistan	107	(1)
Issue Three: Civil War in Sri Lanka	108	(3)
Preserving Stability and Democracy in Indonesia	111	(10)
Angel Rabasa
The Issue	111	(1)
The Stakes	111	(1)
The Challenges	112	(3)
Policy Alternatives	115	(1)
Recommendations	116	(5)
Presidential Policy Options Toward Iran	121	(8)
Jerrold D. Green
U.S. Policy Toward Iraq	129	(8)
Daniel Byman
The Iraqi Threat and the U.S. Response	129	(1)
Continued Problems	130	(2)
Policy Choices	132	(1)
Recommendations	133	(4)
Challenges in Latin America Confronting the Next Administration	137	(16)
Angel Rabasa
U.S. Strategic Interests in Latin America	137	(1)
Threats to Democracy and Stability	138	(2)
Faltering Hemispheric Integration	138	(1)
The Disruptive Impact of Globalization	139	(1)
Regression to Authoritarian Patterns	139	(1)
The Activities of Transnational Criminal Cartels	140	(1)
Formulating a Strategic U.S. Approach	140	(6)
The U.S.-Mexico Relationship in the post-PRI Era	140	(1)
Preserving Democracy and Stability in the Andean Region	141	(1)
Colombia: A Failing State?	142	(1)
Regionalization of Colombia's Conflict	143	(1)
Venezuela: Democratic Revolution or Populist Authoritarianism?	144	(1)
Central America: Threats to Peace and Democracy	145	(1)
Cuba: A Need for a Fresh Look	146	(1)
A Latin American Policy Agenda for the Next Administration	146	(7)
U.S. Foreign Policy and Sub-Saharan Africa	153	(6)
Bob Bates
Diann Painter
Mobil Corporation
Section IV: International Economic Issues
Economic Instruments to Support National Security: What Has the United States Learned? What Does It Need?	159	(10)
C. Richard Neu
Responding to Threats and Challenges	160	(2)
Preparing Now for Future Threats and Challenges	162	(2)
Shaping the International Environment to Promote Stability and Security	164	(3)
What Is to Be Done?	167	(2)
Strengthening the International Financial System	169	(10)
C. Richard Neu
Reforming National Policies	170	(2)
More Effective International Financial Arrangements	172	(1)
Refocus the IMF on Its Primary Mission	173	(2)
Create Incentives for Sound National Policies	175	(1)
Force Private Creditors to Share the Pain	175	(2)
Refocus the Development Banks	177	(2)
Trade Policy: A Turning Point	179	(8)
Ted Van Dyk
Background	180	(2)
2001: What to Do	182	(5)
A Guide for the Next International Energy Crisis	187	(14)
James T. Bartis
Introduction	187	(1)
Petroleum Fundamentals	188	(2)
Prospects for an International Energy Crisis	190	(1)
Responding to an International Energy Crisis	191	(10)
Supply Options	192	(3)
Demand Options	195	(1)
Economic Stability	196	(5)
Section V: Proliferation, Terrorism, Humanitarian Interventions
Humanitarian Intervention	201	(6)
Richard N. Haass
The Issue	201	(1)
Policy Alternatives	202	(1)
Recommendations	203	(4)
Proliferation	207	(12)
Lynn E. Davis
Current Nonproliferation Strategy	208	(4)
An Overall Nonproliferation Approach	212	(1)
Nonproliferation Initiatives	212	(5)
Approach to Other Suppliers	213	(1)
Priority Given to the Nuclear Threat	213	(1)
Redesign Export Controls	214	(1)
Economic Sanctions Legislation	215	(1)
Terrorists with Chemical and Biological Weapons	216	(1)
Recommendation	217	(2)
Nuclear Strategy	219	(14)
Glenn Buchan
Nuclear Issues: What Direction in the Future?	220	(3)
Future Options for U.S. Nuclear Strategy	223	(1)
Why Nuclear Weapons Are Attractive	223	(1)
...And Why They Are Not	223	(1)
The Historical Legacy	224	(1)
Future Strategic Options	225	(8)
A Word About Abolition	226	(1)
Deterrence by Threat of Retaliation	227	(1)
Nuclear War Fighting	228	(3)
A Contemporary U.S. Nuclear Strategy	231	(2)
Presidential Transition Team Issues: Terrorism	233	(14)
Bruce Hoffman
Section VI: Military and Intelligence Transformation
National Security Resources	247	(16)
Gordon Adams
International Affairs Resources Issues	250	(4)
The Diplomatic `Platform'	251	(1)
New Threats and Issues: Coping with Globalization	251	(1)
Health and Infectious Diseases	252	(1)
Environmental Protection	252	(1)
Global Information Technology Initiative	252	(1)
Ensuring International Financial Stability	252	(1)
Leveraging the Private Sector	253	(1)
Peacekeeping Readiness	253	(1)
Leveraging Diplomacy	253	(1)
Defense Resource Issues	254	(9)
Transforming the Force Structure	256	(1)
Modernizing the Inventory	256	(2)
Maintaining Readiness	258	(1)
Ensuring Quality of Life	259	(1)
Infrastructure and Management	260	(3)
Military Science and Technology	263	(12)
Loren B. Thompson
The Scale of Military Science and Technology Efforts	263	(1)
The Scope of Military S&T Research	264	(2)
A Framework for S&T Investments	266	(1)
Information Warfare	267	(1)
Space Superiority	268	(2)
Robotic Vehicles	270	(2)
High-Energy Lasers	272	(1)
Conclusion	272	(3)
Transforming Military Forces	275	(20)
Paul K. Davis
Background	276	(5)
Why Transformation Is Needed	276	(5)
Relationship to the Revolution in Military Affairs	281	(1)
Recent Moves to Transform the Force	281	(3)
History	281	(1)
Creation of the U.S. Joint Forces Command	282	(1)
The Crucial Role of the Services	283	(1)
A Next-Phase Strategy for Transformation	284	(6)
Keys to Transformation Strategy	284	(1)
The Need for a Two-Track Approach	285	(5)
Next Steps for the United States	290	(2)
Selected RAND References	292	(3)
Getting the Quadrennial Defense Review Right	295	(8)
David Ochmanek
Forces for What?	296	(1)
U.S. National Security Strategy	297	(1)
Missions of the Armed Forces	298	(1)
The Challenge of Power Projection	299	(1)
Why `Two' Is the Right Number	300	(1)
Two of What?	300	(3)
Nuclear Weapon Initiatives for the Next Administration	303	(6)
David McGarvey
The U.S. and Russian Need for Massive Retaliation	305	(1)
Dealing with China	306	(1)
Deterrence Through Punishment and Deterrence Through Denial	307	(1)
Conclusion	307	(2)
Formulating Strategies for International Collaboration in Developing and Producing Defense Systems	309	(10)
John Birkler
Mark Lorell
Michael Rich
A Dismal Record	310	(2)
New Era---New Promise?	312	(2)
Budget	312	(1)
Technology	312	(1)
Politics	313	(1)
Easing the Pain	314	(4)
Program Selection: The Importance of Mutuality	315	(1)
The Requirements Process: The Locus of Decision Making	316	(1)
Program Structure	316	(1)
Competition	317	(1)
Conclusion	318	(1)
Intelligence Issues for the New Administration	319	(14)
Abram Shulsky
Rationalization of the Use of Information	321	(5)
Counterintelligence and Counterdeception	326	(2)
Reorientation of Technical Intelligence	328	(1)
Creation of a `Tracking' System	329	(1)
Conclusion	329	(4)
Section VII: National Security Policy Processes
Fixing Three National Security Deficits: Purpose, Structure, and People	333	(12)
Harlan Ullmann
What Then?	341	(3)
Future Prospects	344	(1)
The Infrastructure of American Diplomacy	345	(9)
William C. Harrop
The Components of National Security	346	(1)
America's New International Agenda	347	(1)
The Hollowing Out of U.S. Diplomatic Readiness	348	(1)
Modernization and Reform	349	(5)
Security of U.S. Embassies and Consulates	351	(1)
Information Technology	351	(1)
`Right Sizing' of Embassies	351	(1)
Managing Overseas Buildings	352	(1)
Relations with Congress	352	(1)
Public Diplomacy	352	(1)
State Department Workforce Planning	353	(1)
Commercial Diplomacy	353	(1)
Decentralization---and Its Implications	353	(1)
Interagency Coordination	353	(1)
Conclusion	354