The Third Wave

by Huntington, Samuel P.

• ISBN13: 9780806125169
• ISBN10: 0806125160
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1993-03-01
• Publisher: Univ of Oklahoma Pr

Summary

Between 1974 and 1990 more than thirty countries in southern Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Eastern Europe shifted from authoritarian to democratic systems of government. This global democratic revolution is probably the most important political trend in the late twentieth century. In The Third Wave,Samuel P. Huntington analyzes the causes and nature of these democratic transitions, evaluates the prospects for stability of the new democracies, and explores the possibility of more countries becoming democratic. The recent transitions, he argues, are the third major wave of democratization in the modem world. Each of the two previous waves was followed by a reverse wave in which some countries shifted back to authoritarian government. Using concrete examples, empirical evidence, and insightful analysis, Huntington provides neither a theory nor a history of the third wave, but an explanation of why and how it occurred. Factors responsible for the democratic trend include the legitimacy dilemmas of authoritarian regimes; economic and social development; the changed role of the Catholic Church; the impact of the United States, the European Community, and the Soviet Union; and the "snowballing" phenomenon: change in one country stimulating change in others. Five key elite groups within and outside the nondemocratic regime played roles in shaping the various ways democratization occurred. Compromise was key to all democratizations, and elections and nonviolent tactics also were central. New democracies must deal with the "torturer problem" and the "praetorian problem" and attempt to develop democratic values and processes. Disillusionment with democracy, Huntington argues, is necessary to consolidating democracy. He concludes the book with an analysis of the political, economic, and cultural factors that will decide whether or not the third wave continues. Several "Guidelines for Democratizers" offer specific, practical suggestions for initiating and carrying out reform. Huntington's emphasis on practical application makes this book a valuable tool for anyone engaged in the democratization process. At this volatile time in history, Huntington's assessment of the processes of democratization is indispensable to understanding the future of democracy in the world.

Table of Contents

Foreword	xi	(2)
Carl B. Albert
Preface	xiii
1. What?	3	(28)
The Start of the Third Wave	3	(2)
The Meaning of Democracy	5	(8)
The Waves of Democratization	13	(13)
The Issues of Democratization	26	(5)
2. Why?	31	(78)
Explaining Waves	31	(3)
Explaining Democratization Waves	34	(6)
Explaining the Third Wave	40	(6)
Declining Legitimacy and the Performance Dilemma	46	(13)
Economic Development and Economic Crises	59	(13)
Religious Changes	72	(13)
New Policies of External Actors	85	(15)
Demonstration Effects or Snowballing	100	(6)
From Causes to Causers	106	(3)
3. How? Processes of Democratization	109	(55)
Authoritarian Regimes	110	(11)
Transition Processes	121	(3)
Transformations	124	(18)
Guidelines for Democratizers 1: Reforming Authoritarian Systems	141	(1)
Replacements	142	(9)
Guidelines for Democratizers 2: Overthrowing Authoritarian Regimes	149	(2)
Transplacements	151	(13)
Guidelines for Democratizers 3: Negotiating Regime Changes	162	(2)
4. How? Characteristics of Democratization	164	(44)
The Third Wave Democratization Syndrome	164	(1)
Compromise and the Participation/Moderation Trade-off	165	(9)
Elections: Stunning and Otherwise	174	(18)
Low Levels of Violence	192	(16)
5. How Long?	208	(72)
Consolidation and Its Problems	208	(3)
The Torturer Problem: Prosecute and Punish vs. Forgive and Forget	211	(20)
Guidelines for Democratizers 4: Dealing with Authoritarian Crimes	231	(1)
The Praetorian Problem: Rebellious and Powerful Militaries	231	(22)
Guidelines for Democratizers 5: Curbing Military Power, Promoting Military Professionalism	251	(2)
Contextual Problems, Disillusionment, and Authoritarian Nostalgia	253	(5)
Developing a Democratic Political Culture	258	(7)
Institutionalizing Democratic Political Behavior	265	(5)
Conditions Favoring Consolidation of New Democracies	270	(10)
6. Whither?	280	(37)
Third Wave Causes: Continuing, Weakening, Changing?	281	(9)
A Third Reverse Wave?	290	(4)
Further Democratization: Obstacles and Opportunities	294	(21)
Economic Development and Political Leadership	315	(2)
Notes	317	(26)
Index	343