Twenty-First Century India Population, Economy, Human Development, and the Environment

by Dyson, Tim; Cassen, Robert; Visaria, Leela

• ISBN13: 9780199243358
• ISBN10: 0199243352
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2004-05-27
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

Twenty-First Century India is the first study of India's development giving a fully integrated account of population and development. It is built on new projections of the population for fifty years from the Census of 2001. India's population then had already passed 1 billion. Twenty-fiveyears later it will exceed 1.4 billion, and will almost certainly pass 1.5 billion by mid-century. The projections incorporate for the first time both inter-state migration and the role of HIV/AIDS. They also show India's urban future, with close to half a billion urban inhabitants by the year 2026.The implications of this population growth are then traced out in a range of modelling and analytical work. Growing numbers are found to complicate the task of achieving widespread education in a number of India's states, while other states are already experiencing declines in their school-agepopulation. Demographic growth also contributes to poverty, and increasing divergence in social conditions among the states. As population growth slows in the country overall, the labour force continues to grow relatively fast, with difficult consequences for employment. But national economic growthcould be accelerated by the 'demographic bonus' of the declining proportion of dependents to workers in the population. The book is reasonably optimistic about India's food prospects: the country can continue to feed itself. It can also enjoy higher levels of energy use, manufacturing, and modern forms of transport, while experiencing less chemical pollution. India's cities can become cleaner and healthier places tolive. Perhaps the most difficult environmental issue, and the one most strongly related to population growth, is water. Some states also face severe pressures on common property resources. A policy chapter concludes the book. India's future problems are large, but in principle manageable. However,whether the country will actually achieve sustainable development for all is another matter.

Table of Contents

List of Contributors	xiii
List of Figures	xiv
List of Tables	xvi
List of Abbreviations	xx
1. Overview	1	(14)
2. India's Population-The Past	15	(17)
Tim Dyson
3. Mortality Trends and the Health Transition	32	(25)
Leela Visaria
4. The Continuing Fertility Transition	57	(17)
Leela Visaria
5. India's Population-The Future	74	(34)
Tim Dyson
6. Migration and Urbanization: Retrospect and Prospects	108	(22)
Tim Dyson and Pravin Visaria
7. Education and Literacy	130	(28)
Geeta Gandhi Kingdon, Robert Cassen, Kirsty McNay, and Leela Visaria
8. Employment	158	(20)
Kirsty McNay, Jeemol Unni, and Robert Cassen
9. The Condition of the People	178	(24)
Robert Cassen and Kirsty McNay
10. The Economy-Past and Future	202	(26)
ShankarAcharya, Robert Lassen, and Kirsty McNay
11. Prospects for Food Demand and Supply	228	(26)
Amresh Hanchate and Tim Dyson
12. Modelling the Environment: The Production and Use of Energy	254	(30)
Dennis Anderson
Key Features of the Simulation Model	284	(8)
13. India's Urban Environment: Current Knowledge and Future Possibilities	292	(20)
Bhaskar Vira and Shiraz Vira
14. Water	312	(16)
Bhaskar Vira, Ramaswamy Iyer, and Robert Lassen
15. Common Pool Resources: Current Status and Future Prospects	328	(16)
Bhaskar Vira
16. Lessons and Policies	344	(26)
References	370	(32)
Index	402