Is Uganda an Emerging Economy? : A Report for the OECD Project "Emerging Africa"

by Bigsten, Arne; Kayizzi-Mugerwa, Steve

• ISBN13: 9789171064707
• ISBN10: 9171064702
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-08-01
• Publisher: Stylus Pub Llc

Summary

In spite of serious external shocks and political destabi-lisation in part of the country, Uganda has remained a good economic performer since the late 1980s, with over a decade of high per capita growth in excess of three per cent. This study concludes that Uganda's medium to long-term success will depend on the achievements in institutional reforms, including raising the quality of the civil service, curbing corruption and implementing an effective regulatory framework. This is important as a poorly functioning public sector is both unable to uphold the rule of law, thus losing the public goodwill necessary for implementing new measures, and a burden on the private sector as it implies increased transaction costs.

Author Biography

Arne Bigsten is Professor of Development Economics at Goteborg University.

Table of Contents

Introduction	7	(1)
Background	7
Growth determinants	3	(7)
An emerging economy	10	(3)
Outline of the study	13	(1)
Part I AN OVERVIEW OF LONG-RUN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
Introduction	14	(1)
Pressures of nationhood, 1960--1970	14	(3)
Policy distortions, external shocks and decline, 1971--1980	17	(2)
The slow road to economic reform, 1981--1986	19	(2)
From stabilisation to growth: Economic reforms under the NRM 1987--2000	21	(3)
Investment and productivity growth	24	(3)
Changes in poverty 1992--1996	27	(3)
Aid dependence	30	(3)
Issues arising: Security, East African cooperation and politics	33	(3)
Concluding remarks	36	(4)
Statistical annex	37	(11)
Uganda Investment Authority	48
Part II MACROECONOMIC POLICIES TO PROMOTE STABILITY
Public finance	40	(6)
Introduction	40	(1)
Revenue	40	(3)
Expenditure	43	(3)
Exchange rate policy	46	(2)
The debt burden	48	(6)
Introduction	48	(1)
Policy on debt	49	(4)
Conclusion	53	(1)
Part III STRUCTURAL POLICIES TO PROMOTE LONG-RUN GROWTH
Price policy and trade reform	54	(4)
Policy and non-policy barriers to trade	54	(1)
Responses to changes in tariff structure and protection	55	(2)
Conclusions	57	(1)
Strengthening the financial system	58	(7)
Introduction	58	(1)
Changes in financial sector policy	58	(2)
Structure of bank portfolios and interest rates	60	(2)
Prospects and future challenges	62	(2)
Conclusion	64	(1)
Investing in infrastructure and social overhead capital	65	(11)
Introduction	65	(1)
Human capital	66	(6)
Physical infrastructure	72	(3)
Conclusions	75	(1)
Part IV PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
Securing the private/public sector boundary	76	(10)
Introduction	76	(1)
Privatisation	76	(3)
The private/public sector boundary	79	(6)
Conclusions	85	(1)
Good governance and policy reform: Prospects and obstacles	86	(6)
Introduction	86	(1)
Public sector reform	87	(2)
Decentralisation	89	(2)
Conclusions	91	(1)
Part V CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATION
Introduction	92	(1)
Is Uganda an emerging economy?	92	(4)
Policy conclusions for Uganda	96	(1)
What should donors do?	97	(3)
Appendix: List of persons interviewed	100	(1)
References	101