Understanding Sea-level Rise and Variability

by Church, John A.; Woodworth, Philip L.; Aarup, Thorkild; Wilson, W. Stanley

• ISBN13: 9781444334524
• ISBN10: 1444334522
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2010-09-20
• Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

Summary

Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability identifies the major impacts of sea-level rise, presents up-to-date assessments of past sea-level change, thoroughly explores all of the factors contributing to sea-level rise, and explores how sea-level extreme events might change. It identifies what is known in each area and what research and observations are required to reduce the uncertainties in our understanding of sea-level rise so that more reliable future projections can be made. A synthesis of findings provides a concise summary of past, present and future sea-level rise and its impacts on society.Key Features: Book includes contributions from a range of international sea level experts Multidisciplinary Four color throughout Describes the limits of our understanding of this crucial issue as well as pointing to directions for future researchThe book is for everyone interested in sea-level rise and its impacts, including policy makers, research funders, scientists, students, coastal managers and engineers.

Author Biography

John Church is an oceanographer with the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research and the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. He was co-convening lead author for the chapter on sea level in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. He was awarded the 2006 Roger Revelle Medal by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, a CSIRO Medal for Research Achievement in 2006, and the 2007 Eureka Prize for Scientific Research.

Philip Woodworth works at the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory in Liverpool. He is a former Director of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) and Chairman of Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). He has been a lead or contributing author for each of the IPCC Research Assessments. He was awarded the Denny Medal of IMAREST in 2009 for innovation in sea-level technology and the Vening Meinesz Medal of the European Geosciences Union in 2010 for work in geodesy.

Thorkild Aarup is Senior Program Specialist with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO and serves as technical secretary for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) program. He has a PhD in oceanography from the University of Copenhagen.

Stan Wilson has managed programs during his career, first at the Office of Naval Research where he led the Navy’s basic research program in physical oceanography, then at NASA Headquarters where he established the Oceanography from Space program, and finally at NOAA where he helped organize the 20-country coalition in support of the Argo Program of profiling floats. Currently the Senior Scientist for NOAA’s Satellite & Information Service, he is helping transition Jason satellite altimetry from research into a capability to be sustained by the operational agencies NOAA and EUMETSAT.

Table of Contents

Editor Biographies

List of Contributors

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Abbreviations and Acronyms

Introduction

References

Impacts of and Responses to Sea-Level Rise

Introduction

Climate Change and Global/Relative Sea-Level Rise

Sea-Level Rise and Resulting Impacts

Framework and Methods for the Analysis of Sea-Level-Rise Impacts

Recent Impacts of Sea-Level Rise

Future Impacts of Sea-Level Rise

Responding to Sea-Level Rise

Next Steps

Concluding Remarks

Acknowledgments

References

A First-Order Assessment of the Impact of Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels on Offshore Structures and Coastal Refineries

Introduction

Design Considerations

Impact of Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels

Evaluating the Economic Impact

Conclusions

References

Paleoenvironmental Records, Geophysical Modeling, and Reconstruction of Sea-Level Trends and Variability on Centennial and Longer Timescales

Introduction

Past Sea-Level Changes

Sea-Level Indicators

Geophysical Modeling of Variability in Relative Sea-Level History

Regional Case Studies

Discussion and Conclusions

Acknowledgments

References

Modern Sea-Level-Change Estimates

Introduction

Estimates from Proxy Sea-Level Records

Estimates of Global Sea-Level Change from Tide Gauges

Estimates of Global Sea-Level Change from Satellite Altimetry

Recommendations

Acknowledgments

References

Ocean Temperature and Salinity Contributions to Global and Regional Sea-Level Change

Introduction

Direct Estimates of Steric Sea-Level Rise

Estimating Steric Sea-Level Change Using Ocean Syntheses

Inferring Steric Sea Level from Time-Variable Gravity and Sea Level

Modeling Steric Sea-Level Rise

Conclusions and Recommendations

Acknowledgments

References

Cryospheric Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability

Introduction

Mass-Balance Techniques

Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

Mass Balance of Glaciers and Ice Caps

Glacier, Ice-Cap, and Ice-Sheet Modeling

Summary and Recommendations

References

Terrestrial Water-Storage Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability

Introduction

Analysis Tools

Climate-Driven Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage

Direct Anthropogenic Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage

Synthesis

Recommendations

References

Geodetic Observations and Global Reference Frame Contributions to Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability

Introduction

Global and Regional Reference Systems

Linking GPS to Tide Gauges and Tide-Gauge Benchmarks

Recommendations for Geodetic Observations

Acknowledgments

References

Surface Mass Loading on a Dynamic Earth: Complexity and Contamination in the Geodetic Analysis of Global Sea-Level Trends

Introduction

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment

Sea Level, Sea Surface, and the Geoid

Rapid Melting and Sea-Level Fingerprints

Great Earthquakes

Final Remarks

Acknowledgments

References

Past and Future Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Waves

Introduction

Evidence for Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Waves in the Recent Past

Mid-Latitude and Tropical Storms: Changes in the Atmospheric Drivers of Extreme Sea Level

Future Extreme Water Levels

Future Research Needs

Conclusions

Acknowledgments

References

Observing Systems Needed to Address Sea-Level Rise and Variability

Introduction

Sustained, Systematic Observing Systems (Existing Capabilities)

Development of Improved Observing Systems (New Capabilities)

Summary

References

Sea-Level Rise and Variability: Synthesis and Outlook for the Future

Historical Sea-Level Change

Why is Sea Level Rising?

The Regional Distribution of Sea-Level Rise

Projections of Sea-Level Rise for the 21st Century and Beyond

Changes in Extreme Events

Sea Level and Society

References

Index

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