Unexploded Ordnances A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Methods

by MacDonald, Jacqueline; Knopman, Debra; Lockwood, J. R.; Cecchine, Gary; Willis, Henry H.

• ISBN13: 9780833034328
• ISBN10: 0833034324
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2004-02-27
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Evalutes the technical soundness of existing methods for assessing the risks posed by unexploded ordance at U.S. military installations.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	ix
Tables	xi
Summary	xiii
Acknowledgments	xxv
Abbreviations	xxvii
Introduction	1	(18)
Study Tasks	2	(1)
Study Methods	3	(1)
How This Report Is Organized	4	(1)
Categories of UXO Sites	4	(1)
Number of UXO Sites	4	(1)
Sources and Types of UXO	5	(1)
Risks from UXO Sites	6	(3)
UXO Detection and Removal Process	9	(6)
Efforts to Standardize UXO Risk Assessment Processes	15	(4)
Potential For a Risk-Based Approach to UXO Response	19	(16)
What Is Risk Assessment?	20	(1)
History of Risk Assessment	21	(3)
Potential Applications of Risk Assessment to UXO Problems	24	(1)
Challenges of Using Risk Assessment for UXO Sites	24	(6)
Criteria for an Effective Risk Assessment Method	30	(4)
Conclusions	34	(1)
Evaluation of Existing Methods for UXO Risk Assessment	35	(46)
Overview of Existing Methods	35	(2)
Intended Uses	36	(1)
Risk Sources, Data Requirements, and Output	37	(1)
Criteria for an Effective Method	37	(1)
Interim Range Rule Risk Methodology	38	(13)
Key Features	38	(1)
Description	39	(1)
Risk Calculation Method	39	(10)
Implementation Features	49	(1)
Communication Features	50	(1)
Conclusions	51	(1)
Ordnance and Explosives Cost-Effectiveness Risk Tool	51	(12)
Key Features	51	(1)
Description	52	(1)
Risk Calculation Method	53	(3)
Technical Models and Assumptions	56	(6)
Implementation Features	62	(1)
Communication Features	62	(1)
Conclusions	63	(1)
Risk Assessment Code	63	(4)
Key Features	63	(1)
Description	63	(2)
Risk Calculation Features	65	(1)
Implementation Features	66	(1)
Communication Features	66	(1)
Conclusions	66	(1)
Ordnance and Explosives Risk Impact Analysis	67	(4)
Key Features	67	(1)
Description	67	(2)
Risk Calculation Features	69	(1)
Implementation Features	69	(2)
Communication Features	71	(1)
Conclusions	71	(1)
Natural and Cultural Resources Bank	71	(7)
Key Features	71	(1)
Description	72	(1)
Risk Calculation Features	72	(4)
Implementation Features	76	(1)
Communication Features	77	(1)
Conclusions	78	(1)
Summary	78	(3)
Other Federal Risk Assessment Methods	81	(44)
Prioritizing Sites Based On Risk	84	(15)
Relative Risk Site Evaluation Primer	84	(8)
Hazard Ranking System	92	(3)
Environmental Restoration Priority System	95	(4)
Developing Quantitative Risk Estimates for Specific Sites	99	(13)
Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund	100	(4)
Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund	104	(2)
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (NRC, NASA, and FAA)	106	(4)
Safety Assessment for Explosion Risk	110	(2)
Assessing Multiple Risk End Points	112	(4)
Evaluating Uncertainty in Risk Estimates	116	(2)
Standardizing the Risk Assessment Process	118	(1)
Working with Stakeholders	119	(3)
Developing Trust Among Stakeholders	122	(1)
Conclusions	123	(2)
Conclusions and Recommendations	125	(18)
Recommended Process for Prioritization	129	(6)
Process Description	129	(4)
Oversight by Technical Review Board and Advisory Committee	133	(1)
Two Lists, Based on Land Use	134	(1)
Recommended Site-Specific Risk Assessment Process	135	(4)
Description of Recommended Approach	136	(1)
Development of Event and Fault Trees	137	(2)
Oversight by a Technical Review Board	139	(1)
Summary of Recommendations	139	(4)
References	143