Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change for Bangladesh

by Huq, Saleemul; Karim, Z.; Asaduzzaman, M.; Mahtab, F.

• ISBN13: 9780792355366
• ISBN10: 0792355369
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1998-12-01
• Publisher: Kluwer Academic Pub

Summary

This book is based on a substantial study carried out by a team of experts in different fields from Bangladesh, following a common (IPCC) guideline and with technical support from the US Country Studies Team. The study has for the first time developed scenarios for the impacts of climate change on agriculture and water sectors, focusing on coastal agriculture and beach erosion in the context of sea-level rise. It has also taken a look at the aspect of adaptation to climate change for a country that is one of the most vulnerable and which will have to live with the impacts of climate change and changing climate. The book is meant for all those who are interested in the impacts of climate change, particularly on developing countries and on low-lying, vulnerable countries like Bangladesh. It is also relevant for those involved in the general development of poor countries under a changing climate.

Table of Contents

Tables	xi	(2)
Figures	xiii	(2)
Preface	xv
Overview	1	(13)
Saleemul Huq
M. Asaduzzaman
1. Introduction	1	(1)
2. The Physical Environment	2	(3)
2.1. Location	2	(1)
2.2. Physiograpy and Relief	2	(2)
2.3. Climate	4	(1)
2.4. Surface and Groundwater Hydrology	4	(1)
3. Social and Economic Settings	5	(2)
3.1. Main Societal Features	5	(2)
3.2. Economy	7	(1)
4. Studies: Previous and Present	7	(3)
4.1. Previous Studies	7	(1)
4.2. The Present Study	8	(1)
4.3. Findings of the Present Study	8	(2)
5. Conclusion	10	(4)
Development of Climate Change Scenarios with General Circulation Models	14	(8)
Ahsan Uddin Ahmed
Mozaharul Alam
1. Introduction	14	(2)
2. Estimation Methodology and Results	16	(3)
2.1 Temperature	16	(2)
2.2 Precipitation	18	(1)
2.3 Evaporation	18	(1)
3. Conclusions	19	(3)
Water Resources Vulnerability to Climate Change With Special Reference to Inundation	22	(18)
Mozaharul Alam
Ain-Un Nishat
Saad M. Siddiqui
1. Introduction	22	(1)
2. Methodology	23	(2)
3. Description of MIKE11 Model	25	(1)
3.1 General Model	26	(1)
3.2 Regional Model	26	(1)
4. Assumptions for Model Runs	26	(1)
5. Creation of Water Depth Spatial Database for the Year 1990, 2030 and 2075	27	(1)
6. Assumptions for Assessment of the Changes of Land Type	27	(3)
6.1 MPO Land Types	28	(1)
6.2 Land Type Change Matrix	29	(1)
7. Assessment of the Changes of Land Type	30	(8)
7.1 Existing (1990) Land Type and Area	31	(2)
7.2 Land Type and Area in 2030	33	(2)
7.3 Land Type and Area in 2075	33	(5)
8. Conclusions	38	(2)
Climate Change Vulnerability of Crop Agriculture	40	(16)
Zahurul Karim
Sk. Ghulam Hussain
Ahsan Uddin Ahmed
1. Introduction	40	(1)
2. General Vulnerability of Crop Agriculture in Bangladesh	40	(3)
3. Climate Change Induced Vulnerability to Crop Production	43	(5)
3.1 Effect on Aggregated Production of Foodgrain	43	(4)
3.1.1 Climate Models	43	(2)
3.1.2 Crop Models	45	(1)
3.1.3 HYV Aus Rice	45	(1)
3.1.4 HYV Aman Rice	46	(1)
3.1.5 HYV Boro Rice	46	(1)
3.1.6 Wheat	46	(1)
3.2 Effect of Climate Change on Crop Growing Season	47	(1)
3.3 Moisture Stress Scenario	47	(1)
4. Implication of Climate Change	48	(3)
5. Management Options for Adaptation to Reduce Vulnerability	51	(1)
6. Conclusions	51	(5)
Assessment of Foodgrain Production Loss Due to Climate Induced Enhanced Soil Salinity	56	(16)
Mohammad Habibullah
Ahsan Uddin Ahmed
Zahurul Karim
1. Introduction	56	(1)
1.1 The Soil Salinisation Process: An Overview	56	(1)
2. Approach and Methodology	57	(1)
3. Results	58	(11)
3.1 Soil Salinity Development	58	(4)
3.2 Possible Impact of Soil Salinity on Foodgrain Production	62	(7)
4. Conclusions	69	(3)
Beach Erosion in the Eastern Coastline of Bangladesh	72	(22)
S.M. Rakibul Islam
Saleemul Huq
Anwar Ali
1. Introduction	72	(1)
2. Coastal Morphology of Bangladesh	72	(3)
2.1 Eastern Region	75	(1)
2.2 Central Region	75	(1)
2.3 Western Region	75	(1)
3. Review of Erosion Studies in Bangladesh	75	(3)
4. Erosion Dynamics or Causes of Erosion	78	(1)
4.1 Discharge Current	78	(1)
4.2 Tide	78	(1)
4.3 Monsoon Current	79	(1)
4.4 Storm Surges	79	(1)
5. Theory of Erosion due to Sea Level Rise	79	(3)
6. Survey and Study Area	82	(2)
6.1 First Part	82	(2)
6.1.1 Bakkhali River Valley	82	(1)
6.1.2 Southern Beach Plain	82	(2)
6.1.3 Nhila-Teknaf Plain	84	(1)
6.2 Second Part	84	(1)
6.3 Third Part	84	(1)
7. Data Collection	84	(1)
7.1 Methodology of Taking Readings	84	(1)
8. Data Analysis, Results and Discussions	85	(5)
9. Recommendations	90	(4)
Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Bangladesh to Climate Change	94	(20)
Ahsan Uddin Ahmed
Neaz Ahmed Siddiqi
Rawshan Ali Choudhuri
1. Introduction	94	(1)
2. The State of Forests in Bangladesh	94	(7)
2.1 Natural Hill Forest Ecosystem	95	(2)
2.1.1 Dipterocarp Forest	95	(1)
2.1.2 Savanna	95	(1)
2.1.3 Bamboo	95	(2)
2.1.4 Freshwater Swamp Forests	97	(1)
2.2 Natural Sal Forest Ecosystem	97	(1)
2.3 Littoral Mangrove Ecosystem	97	(1)
2.4 Plantation Forest Ecosystems	98	(1)
2.5 Village Forest Ecosystem	98	(1)
2.6 Forest Fauna	99	(1)
2.7 Forest Product Requirement and Productivity	99	(1)
2.8 Deforestation and Forest Degradation	100	(1)
3. General Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Forests	101	(1)
4. Impacts on Forests in Bangladesh	102	(1)
5. Impacts on Mangrove Forests	103	(5)
5.1 General Features of the Sundarbans	104	(2)
5.1.1 Oligohaline (or miohaline) Zone	105	(1)
5.1.2 Mesohaline Zone	105	(1)
5.1.3 Polyhaline Zone	105	(1)
5.2 Possible Impacts on the Sundarbans Ecosystem	106	(2)
5.3 Probable Adaptation Alternatives	108	(1)
6. Conclusions	108	(6)
Fish Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh	114	(11)
M. Youssouf Ali
1. Introduction	114	(1)
2. Primary Fish Habitat	114	(3)
2.1 Rivers and their Floodplains	115	(1)
2.2 Beels	115	(1)
2.3 Estuaries	116	(1)
3. Fish Species Diversity	117	(3)
3.1 Inland Waters	118	(1)
3.1.1 Large Sized Fishes	118	(1)
3.1.2 Small Sized Fishes	118	(1)
3.2 Marine Water of the Upper Bay	119	(1)
3.3 Prawns	119	(1)
3.4 Exotic Species of Fishes	120	(1)
4. Description of Main Fisheries Likely to be Affected by Climate Change	120	(3)
4.1 Marine and Estuarine Capture Fisheries	121	(1)
4.2 Fresh Water Capture Fisheries	121	(1)
4.3 Freshwater Pond Culture of Fisher	121	(1)
4.4 Brackish Water Shrimp Farming in the Coastal Districts	122	(1)
5. Probable Adaptation Alternatives	123	(2)
Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh: Future Outlook	125	(20)
Ahsan Uddin Ahmed
Mozaharul Alam
A. Atiq Rahman
1. Introduction	125	(2)
2. Vulnerability to Climate Change	127	(2)
3. Response to Climate Change	129	(9)
3.1 Types of Adaptation	130	(1)
3.2. Anticipatory Adaptation Measures	130	(2)
3.2.1. Bear Losses	130	(1)
3.2.2. Share Losses	130	(1)
3.2.3. Modify the Threat	130	(1)
3.2.4. Prevent Effects	131	(1)
3.2.5. Change Use	131	(1)
3.2.6. Change Location	131	(1)
3.3. Possible Actors and their Respective Domains	132	(2)
3.3.1. Global Level	132	(1)
3.3.2. National Level	133	(1)
3.3.3. Sub-national Level	134	(1)
3.3.4. Local Level	134	(1)
3.4. Opportunities for Bangladesh: An Assessment	134	(3)
3.5. Challenges of Managing Adaptation	137	(1)
4. Way Ahead	138	(7)
Subject Index	145