The Warming Papers The Scientific Foundation for the Climate Change Forecast

by Archer, David; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

• ISBN13: 9781405196161
• ISBN10: 1405196165
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2011-01-18
• Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

Summary

Global warming is arguably the defining scientific issue of modern times, but it is not widely appreciated that the foundations of our understanding were laid almost two centuries ago with the postulation of a greenhouse effect by Fourier in 1827. The sensitivity of climate to changes in atmospheric CO 2 was first estimated about one century ago, and the rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration was discovered half a century ago. The fundamentals of the science underlying the forecast for human-induced climate change were being published and debated long before the issue rose to public prominence in the last few decades.The Warming Papers is a compendium of the classic scientific papers that constitute the foundation of the global warming forecast. The paper trail ranges from Fourier and Arrhenius in the 19 th Century to Manabe and Hansen in modern times. Archer and Pierrehumbert provide introductions and commentary which places the papers in their context and provide students with tools to develop and extend their understanding of the subject.The book capture the excitement and the uncertainty that always exist at the cutting edge of research, and is invaluable reading for students of climate science, scientists, historians of science, and others interested in climate change.

Author Biography

David Archer is a Professor in Geophysical Sciences, and a fellow of the American Geophysical Union.  His research pertains to the global carbon cycle and its relation to Earth's climate in the past and the future.  Archer is the author of The Long Thaw: How humans are changing the next 100,000 years of Earth's climate (Princeton University Press, 2008), an undergraduate text book called Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast (Blackwell, 2006), and a summary guide to the IPCC Fourth Scientific Assessment Report called The Climate Crisis (Cambridge University Press, 2009).

Ray Pierrehumbert is the Louis Block Professor in Geophysical Sciences, a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, and was named Chevalier de l'Ordre des Palmes Academiques by the Republic of France.  Pierrehumbert studies the physics of climate, especially regarding the long-term evolution of the climates of Earth, Mars.Venus, Titan and extrasolar planets. Pierrehumbert was an author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report (1997-2001), and a member of the National Research Council's Panel on Abrupt Climate Change and its Societal Impacts (2000-2001), and is currently serving on the National Research Council Board on Atmospheric Science and Climate, and the National Research Council Panel on CO2 Stabilization Targets.

Table of Contents

Preface

Climate Physics

The Greenhouse Effect

On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space Jean-Baptiste

Wagging the Dog

On the Absorption and radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction

By the Light of the Silvery Moon

On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature on the Ground

Radiative Transfer

The Influence of the 15¿ Carban-Dioxide Band on the Atmospheric Infra-red Cooling Rate

The Balance of Energy

Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity

The Effect of Solar Radiation Variations on the Climate of the Earth

A Global Climatic Model Based on the Energy Balance of the Earth-Atmosphere System

The Birth of the General Circulation Model

The Effects of Doubling the CO₂ Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model

Climate Sensitivity: Analysis of Feedback Mechanisms

Aerosols

Climate Responnse to Increasing Levels of Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols

Ocean Heat and Committed Warming

Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications

Taking Earth's Temperature

Global Temperature Variations Between 1861 and 1984

Contribution to Stratospheric Cooling to Satellite-Inferred Troposphoric Temperature Trends

Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertanties, and Limitations

Ice Sheets and Sea Level

Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow

The Public Statement

Man-Made Carbon Dioxide and the 'Greenhouse' Effect

Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment

Carbon Cycle

The Sky is Rising

The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and its Influence on Temperature

Denial and Acceptance

Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO₂ During the Past Decades

Distribution of Matter in the Sea and Atmosphere: Changes in the Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmoshere and Sea due to Fossil Fuel Combustion

Bookends

The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmoshpere

Is Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Changing Man's Environment?

One if by Land

Changes of Land Biota and Their Importance for the Carbon Cycle

Observational Constraints on the Global Atmospheric CO₂ Budget

Acceleration of Global Warming due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model

Two if by Sea

Neutralization of Fossil Fuel CO₂ by Marine Calcium

Effects of Fuel and Forest Conservation on Future Levels of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Abrupt Deep-Seas Warming, Palaeoceanographic Changes and Benthic Extinctions at the End of the Palaeocene

Ocean pH

Anthropogenic Carbon and Ocean pH

Reduced Calcification of Marine Plankton in Response to Increased Atmospheric CO₂Ulf Riebesell

Tiny Bubbles

Evidence From Polar Ice Cores for the Increase in Atmospheric CO₂ in the Past Two Centuries

Vostok Ice Core Provides 160,000-Year record of Atmospheric CO₂

Index

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