Weather Analysis and Forecasting

by Georgiev; Santurette

• ISBN13: 9780126192629
• ISBN10: 0126192626
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2005-06-02
• Publisher: Elsevier Science

Summary

In this practical guide, Santurette and Georgiev show how to interpret water vapor patterns in terms of dynamical processes in the atmosphere and their relation to diagnostics available from weather prediction models. In particular, they concentrate on the close relationship between satellite imagery and the potential vorticity fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. These applications are illustrated with color images based on real meteorological situations. The book's step-by-step pedagogy makes this an essential training manual for forecasters in meteorological services worldwide, and a valuable text for graduate students in atmospheric physics and satellite meteorology.

Table of Contents

Preface	ix
Acknowledgments	xi
Introduction	xiii
PART I Fundamentals
A Dynamical View of Synoptic Development	03	(12)
Vorticity and Potential Vorticity	03	(2)
The Concept of PV Thinking	05	(3)
The Conservation Principle	05	(1)
The Invertibility Principle	06	(1)
Climatological Distribution of Potential Vorticity	06	(1)
Positive PV Anomalies and Their Remote Influence	07	(1)
Operational Use of PV Fields for Monitoring Synoptic Development	08	(7)
Upper-Level Dynamics, Dynamical Tropopause, and Tropopause Dynamic Anomaly	08	(2)
Synoptic Development as Seen by the PV Concept	10	(1)
Jet Streams and Jet Streaks	11	(1)
Analysis of a Real-Atmosphere Vertical Structure	12	(3)
The Interpretation Problem of Satellite Water Vapor Imagery	15	(12)
Radiation Measurements in Water Vapor Absorption Bands	15	(4)
Information Content of Water Vapor Image Gray Shades	19	(8)
Layered Moisture Conditions	20	(2)
Cold Air Temperatures and Inversions	22	(1)
Clouds	22	(5)
PART II Practical Use of Water Vapor Imagery and Dynamical Fields
Significant Water Vapor Imagery Features Associated with Synoptic Dynamical Structures	27	(56)
Interpretation of Synoptic-Scale Light and Dark Imagery Features	28	(13)
Moist (light) Features	28	(2)
Dry (dark) Features	30	(11)
Mid- to Upper-Troposphere Wind Field	41	(6)
Interaction of the Jet Stream with a Tropopause Dynamic Anomaly	43	(2)
Jet-Stream Breaks	45	(2)
Blocking Regimes	47	(6)
Blocking Regime Formation in which Easterlies Result from Anticyclogenesis	47	(3)
Blocking Regime Formation in which Easterlies Result from Cyclogenesis	50	(3)
Cyclogenesis	53	(10)
Cyclogenesis within Baroclinic Troughs---Leaf and Baroclinic-Leaf Features in the WV Imagery	53	(5)
Cyclogenesis with an Upper-Level Precursor	58	(5)
WV Imagery Analysis of Main Ingredients of a Severe Weather Situation	63	(16)
Main Features Associated with the Blocking Regime over the Mediterranean	64	(1)
K-Boundary as an Indicator of a ``Rolling Over'' Upstream Ridge	64	(4)
Dry Delta Feature Associated with a Jet Break in the Blocking Regime	68	(2)
Leaf Development Producing Instability and Convection	70	(5)
Dry Delta Feature as a Precursor of Cyclogenesis	75	(4)
Summary	79	(4)
Basic Principles in WV Imagery Interpretation	79	(1)
Light WV Imagery Patterns---Relation to Dynamical Structures	80	(1)
Dark WV Imagery Patterns---Relation to Dynamical Structures	80	(1)
Boundary Patterns on the WV Imagery---Relation to Dynamical Structures	80	(1)
Patterns of Interaction Between WV Imagery Features---Relation to Dynamical Processes	81	(1)
Superposition of WV Imagery and Dynamical Fields---A Tool for Synoptic-Scale Analysis	81	(2)
Use of Water Vapor Imagery for Assessing NWP Model Behavior and Improving Forecasts	83	(70)
Operational Use of the Relationship Between PV Fields and WV Imagery	83	(8)
Nature and Usefulness of the Relationship	83	(3)
Information Content of Vorticity Fields Related to WV Imagery	86	(1)
Relationships Among Dry Intrusion, PV Anomalies, and WV Imagery	87	(4)
Synthetic (Pseudo) Water Vapor Images	91	(2)
Comparing PV Fields, WV Imagery, and Synthetic WV Images	93	(7)
Validating NWP Output by Applying a WV-PV-PWV Comparison	94	(4)
Typical Instances of WV-PV-PWV Comparison	98	(2)
Agreement Among the WV Image, The PV Field, and the Synthetic WV Image/NWP Moisture Distribution	100	(5)
Instances of Mismatch Between the Synthetic WV Image/NWP Moisture Distribution and the PV Field	105	(15)
Agreements Between the WV Image and the PV Field	105	(5)
Mismatches Between the WV Image and the PV Field as Well as Between the WV and Synthetic Images	110	(2)
Agreement Between the WV Image and the Synthetic Image	112	(8)
Mismatch Between the WV Image and the PV Field and Agreement Between the PV Field and the Synthetic Image/NWP Moisture Distribution	120	(19)
Secondary Cyclone Development	120	(2)
Moist Ascent at Initiation of a Rapid Cyclogenesis	122	(7)
Reinforcement of Vortex Development Within a Cut-off Low System	129	(5)
Rapid Baroclinic Cyclogenesis in a Strong Zonal Atlantic Flow	134	(5)
Using Satellite and Synthetic WV Images and PV Concepts to Get an Alternative Numerical Forecast	139	(12)
An Example of Cyclogenesis in a Zonal Atlantic Flow	141	(3)
An Example of Upper-Level Forcing of Convection	144	(7)
Summary	151	(2)
Comparison Between Water Vapor Imagery and Dynamic Fields as an Operational Tool	151	(1)
Comparing Satellite and Synthetic Water Vapor Imagery with Potential Vorticity Fields for Validating NWP Output	152	(1)
Using Satellite and Synthetic Water Vapor Images and PV Concepts for Adjusting NWP Initial Conditions to Get an Alternative Numeric Forecast	153	(1)
CONCLUSION	153	(2)
APPENDIX A Radiative Transfer Theory and Some Radiation Effects for the WV Channels of Meteosat, GOES, and MSG	155	(10)
A.1 Radiative transfer theory	155	(5)
A.2 MSG WV channels	160	(5)
APPENDIX B Synthetic (Pseudo) Water Vapor Images	165	(2)
APPENDIX C PV Modification Technique and PV Inversion to Correct the Initial State of the Numerical Model	167	(2)
APPENDIX D Glossary of Acronyms	169	(2)
References	171	(2)
Index	173