Willful Ignorance The Mismeasure of Uncertainty

by Weisberg, Herbert I.

• ISBN13: 9780470890448
• ISBN10: 0470890444
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2014-08-04
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

This provocative new book posits how the tacit principle of "willful ignorance" has led to a deep divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research that will increasingly constrain scientific progress unless bridged by a broadened conception of statistical methodology. It presents numerous examples, both hypothetical and real, to illustrate and support the main premise; offers a non-technical, historical survey of core statistical concepts; and speculates about the future evolution of statistics. Clinicians will find this book to be of particular interest, as will others interested in observational statistics.

Author Biography

Herbert I. Weisberg, PhD, is Founder of Causalytics, LLC, which develops innovative technology for predictive analytics for both medical research and business applications. He was previously President of Correlation Research Inc., a consulting firm specializing in the application of statistics to various business and legal issues. A Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Dr. Weisberg has published numerous articles and two previous books related to applied statistics.

Table of Contents

PREFACE xi

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv

1 THE OPPOSITE OF CERTAINTY 1

Two Dead Ends 2

Analytical Engines 4

What is Probability?  6

Uncertainty 9

Willful Ignorance 12

Toward a New Science 15

2 A QUIET REVOLUTION 19

Thinking the Unthinkable 21

Inventing Probability 24

Statistics 27

The Taming of Chance 31

The Ignorance Fallacy 34

The Dilemma of Science 35

3 A MATTER OF CHANCE 41

Origins 43

Probability 44

The Famous Correspondence 56

What Did Not Happen Next 60

AgainstThe Odds 64

4 HARDLY TOUCHED UPON 71

The Mathematics of Chance 73

Empirical Frequencies 82

A Quantum of Certainty 100

5 A MATHEMATICIAN OF BASEL 114

Publication at Last 116

The Art of Conjecturing 117

A Tragic Ending 142

6 A DEFECT OF CHARACTER 147

Man Without a Country 150

A Fraction of Chances 165

7 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY 171

Revolutionary Reverends 173

From Chances to Probability 194

8 BABEL 213

The Great Unraveling 216

Probability as a Relative Frequency 219

Probability as a Logical Relationship 228

Probability as a Subjective Assessment 239

Probability as a Propensity 247

9 PROBABILITY AND REALITY 253

The Razor’s Edge 255

What Fisher Knew 257

What Reference Class?  262

A Postulate of Ignorance 270

Laplace’s Error 279

10 THE DECISION FACTORY 283

Beyond Moral Certainty 284

Decisions, Decisions 298

Machine-Made Knowledge 309

11 THE LOTTERY IN SCIENCE 312

Scientific Progress 313

Fooled by Causality 319

Statistics for Humans: Bias or Ambiguity?  331

Regression toward the Mean 339

12 TRUST, BUT VERIFY 346

A New Problem 347

Trust,… 354

…But Verify 357

The Future 363

Mindful Ignorance 368

APPENDIX: THE PASCAL–FERMAT

CORRESPONDENCE OF 1654 373

NOTES 387

BIBLIOGRAPHY 415

INDEX 429