Withdrawing from Iraq Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies

by Perry, Walter L.; Johnson, Stuart E.; Crane, Keith; Gompert, David C.; Gordon, John

• ISBN13: 9780833047724
• ISBN10: 0833047728
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2009-10-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Since 2007, security has improved dramatically in Iraq. The U.S. and Iraqi governments-and most Iraqis-want to see both the U.S. presence there reduced and the Iraqi government and security forces assuming a greater role in providing for public security. The challenge is to effect this drawdown while preserving security and stability in the country and in the region.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. xi
Tables	p. xiii
Summary	p. xv
Acknowledgments	p. xxxiii
Abbreviations	p. xxxvii
Introduction	p. 1
The Purpose of This Report	p. 2
Why Three Alternatives?	p. 2
The Effects of the Drawdown	p. 3
Methodology	p. 3
About This Report	p. 5
Drawdown Scheduling	p. 7
Ending the Combat Mission in Iraq	p. 8
Iraqi Security Forces	p. 9
U.S. Military Forces in Iraq	p. 10
Sequencing the Withdrawal of U.S. Combat and Support Forces	p. 11
Implementation and the Rotation Schedule	p. 12
The Security Agreement Referendum	p. 12
Three Alternatives	p. 13
Rationale	p. 14
Defining the Alternatives	p. 15
Combat Units Depart by April 30, 2010	p. 16
Planning	p. 16
ISF Support	p. 16
Security	p. 17
Leaving Iraq	p. 18
Unforeseen Contingencies	p. 18
Mitigation Measures	p. 18
Mission of U.S. Forces Changes After August 2010	p. 19
Planning	p. 20
ISF Support	p. 20
Security	p. 21
Leaving Iraq	p. 21
Unforeseen Contingencies	p. 22
Implications of This Alternative	p. 22
Maintain Combat and Noncombat Units Through December 2011	p. 22
Planning	p. 23
ISF Support	p. 23
Security	p. 24
Leaving Iraq	p. 24
Unforeseen Contingencies	p. 24
Implications of This Alternative	p. 25
Conclusion	p. 25
Shortfalls in the Iraqi Armed Forces' Capability Beyond 2011	p. 26
Logistics Factors and Constraints Affecting the Drawdown	p. 29
Drawdown Processes	p. 30
Planning the Redeployment of a Unit	p. 31
Moving U.S. Military Personnel Out of the Region	p. 31
Moving Military Vehicles from the Region	p. 32
Base Closure	p. 36
Methodology	p. 37
Assessment of U.S. Military Personnel Movement Capacity	p. 38
Assessment of Convoy Capacity for Military Vehicles and Unit Equipment	p. 38
Assessment of Staging and Washrack Capacity	p. 40
Assessment of Customs and Agricultural Inspection Capacity	p. 40
Assessment of Sterile Lot Capacity and Disposition Instructions	p. 41
Assessment of Port and Shipping Capacity	p. 41
Assessment of Base Closure or Transfer Time	p. 42
Overall "Baseline" Findings	p. 42
Mitigating Logistics Risks or Improving Drawdown Capabilities	p. 43
Affecting Capacity	p. 44
Reducing Demand on Convoys and on Base Closure or Transfer Time	p. 46
Shifting Demand to Alternative Redeployment Modes-Convoy Substitutes	p. 47
Conclusion	p. 49
Internal Security and Stability	p. 51
The Role of the MNF-I in Promoting Internal Security	p. 54
Dangers	p. 54
Extremists	p. 56
Mainstream Armed Opposition Groups	p. 57
Politicized Iraqi Security Forces	p. 63
The Impact of a Weakened Economy	p. 66
Summary of Dangers	p. 66
Security Needs That Will Remain Unmet After Full U.S. Military Withdrawal	p. 67
Direct Threats to U.S. Personnel	p. 71
Extremists	p. 71
Main Opposition Groups	p. 73
A Summary of Potential Threats to U.S. Forces and Personnel	p. 74
An Assessment of Drawdown Options in Light of Dangers to Iraq's Security and U.S. Personnel	p. 75
Regional Effects	p. 79
Iran	p. 81
Overt Iranian Military Intervention	p. 82
Covert Iranian Actions and Links to Regional Proxies	p. 82
The Counterweights of Arab Nationalism and Iraqi Shi'ism	p. 83
Iraqis Avoid Provoking Iran	p. 83
Iranian Levers of Influence in Iraq	p. 84
Saudi Arabia	p. 86
Risks to Saudi Arabia from the New Iraq	p. 87
Saudi Levers of Influence	p. 89
Syria	p. 90
Syrian Interests in Iraq	p. 91
Instruments of Syrian Influence in Iraq	p. 91
The Degree of Syrian Intervention in Iraq	p. 92
Turkey	p. 93
Israel	p. 95
Effects of the Drawdown on Iraq's Relations with Regional Powers	p. 96
Serious Challenges Remain	p. 96
Military Intervention by Iraq's Neighbors	p. 96
The Importance of the Political Process	p. 97
The View from Iraq's Neighbors	p. 97
The Possibility of Heightened U.S.-Iranian Tensions	p. 97
Risk Mitigation	p. 99
The Iraqi Security Forces	p. 99
Risk	p. 100
Mitigating Measures	p. 101
Creeping Authoritarianism	p. 102
Risk	p. 102
Mitigating Measures	p. 103
The Arab-Kurdish Conflict	p. 103
Risk	p. 104
Mitigating Measures	p. 104
Turkish Incursion into Northern Iraq	p. 106
Risk	p. 106
Mitigating Measures	p. 106
Iranian Subversion of the Iraqi Government	p. 106
Risk	p. 106
Mitigating Measures	p. 107
A Return to Violence by the Sons of Iraq	p. 107
Risk	p. 107
Mitigating Measures	p. 108
Detainees	p. 108
Risk	p. 108
Mitigating Measures	p. 109
Vulnerable Groups, Internally Displaced Persons, and Refugees	p. 109
Risk	p. 110
Mitigating Measures	p. 111
The Referendum on the Security Agreement	p. 113
Risk	p. 114
Mitigating Measures	p. 114
Conclusion	p. 117
Major Findings	p. 117
Drawdown Timelines	p. 117
Arab-Kurdish Armed Conflict	p. 117
Iran	p. 118
The Iraqi Security Forces	p. 118
Reconciliation and Development	p. 118
Recommendations	p. 119
Arab-Kurdish Conflict	p. 119
Iranian Subversion	p. 119
A Return to Violence by the Sons of Iraq	p. 120
Iraqi Security Forces	p. 120
Appendixes
The Study's Legislative Background	p. 121
Drawdown of Remaining Forces	p. 123
Economic and Advisory Issues Involved in a Drawdown of U.S. Forces from Iraq	p. 135
Bibliography	p. 153
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.