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List of illustrations
Forward by Peter Berger
Acknowledgements
Introduction
Part I: Overview
1. Global religious populations, 1910–2010
Religiously affiliated and unaffiliated
Christians
Muslims
Hindus
Agnostics
Chinese folk-religionists
Buddhists
Ethnoreligionists
Atheists
New Religionists
Sikhs
Jews
Spiritists
Daoists
Baha’is
Confucianists
Jains
Shintoists
Zoroastrians
2. Regional religious populations, 1910–2010
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America
Northern America
Oceania
3. Religious diversity
Diversity versus pluralism
Changes in religious diversity from 1910 to 2010
Method 1: Religious Diversity Index (RDI)
Method 2: Religious diversity by number of religions
Method 3: Religious diversity by size of population
Measuring the impact of size on diversity
Religious diversity in the United States
Globalization
Conclusion
4. Projecting religious populations, 2010–50
Methodology
Findings for the larger world religions
Christians
Muslims
Hindus
Buddhists
Agnostics/atheists
Research on the future of religion
Part II: Data and methods
5. Defining religion and religious identity
How many religions, and what religions, are world religions?
Defining world religions
Defining new religions
Defining folk religion
Doubly-affiliated religionists
Defining not “religion” but “a religion”
6. Religious demography as an emerging discipline
Demography as a growing field of study
Changes in methodology
Challenges, strengths, and weaknesses
Religious demography
Popular writing on the future of religion
Positive developments in religious demography
Scholarly reflections on religious data
International coverage in religious demography
Innumeracy and religious demography
Religious demography and other disciplines
Religious demography and international relations
7. Major sources and collections of data
Censuses in which a religious question is asked
Censuses in which an ethnicity or language question is asked
Surveys and polls
Scholarly monographs
Religion statistics in yearbooks and handbooks
Governmental statistical reports
Questionnaires and reports from collaborators
Field surveys and interviews
Correspondence with national informants
Unpublished documentation
Encyclopedia, dictionaries, and directories of religions
Print and web-based contemporary descriptions of religions
Dissertations and theses on religion
Physical and electronic collections of data
8. Analyzing data on religion
International Religious Demography Data Quality Index
Census data
Other survey sources
World Religion Database (WRD)
?X Examples of other WRD sources
Reconciling discrepancies between data
9. Dynamics of change in religious populations
Births
Deaths
Births minus deaths/total fertility rate
Converts to
Converts from
Converts to minus converts from
Immigrants
Emigrants
Immigrants minus emigrants
Part III: Case studies
10. Estimating changes in the global Muslim population
Data
Baseline Muslim populations
Fertility
Age and sex structure
Life expectancy at birth
Migration: Important primarily in Europe and North America
Projection assumptions
Fertility assumptions
Mortality assumptions
Migration assumptions
The projected global Muslim population scenarios
Definition of Muslims
Differences between this study and the Pew Forum’s 2009 report
Historical data
Discussion of sources
United Nations and other international research agencies
Censuses
Demographic surveys
General population surveys
World Religion Database
A note on country and territory designation
Overview of the findings
Growing, but at a slower rate
Muslim-majority countries
Sunni and Shia Muslims
Other key findings of the study
Worldwide
Asia-Pacific
Middle East-North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Europe
The Americas
11. Factors driving change in the global Muslim population
Main factors driving population growth
Fertility
Life expectancy at birth
Migration
Age structure
Related factors
Education
Economic well-being
Conversion
12. Estimating China’s religious populations
Overview
Reported religious affiliation in China according to surveys
Toward a more comprehensive count of religion
Chinese folk- or traditional religion
Buddhism and Taoism
Christianity
Background on the Chinese context
Chinese government estimates
Membership-based estimates
Independent survey estimates
Islam
Atheism
A comprehensive estimate of religious affiliation in China
Government officials interested in hearing about religion
13. Assessing religious populations in the Sudans
Religious demography of the North and South
14. Migration and religious diasporas
Religious diasporas
Host and sending countries
Peoples in diaspora
Religionists in diaspora
Migration as one component of religious change
Births minus deaths
Converts to minus converts from
Immigrants minus emigrants
Civility
Additional methodological notes
Conclusion
World religions by country table
Bibliography
Glossary
Index
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