To Your Health How to Understand What Research Tells Us about Risk

by Kraemer, Helena Chmura; Lowe,, Karen Kraemer; Kupfer, David J.

• ISBN13: 9780195178708
• ISBN10: 019517870X
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2005-03-24
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

The public is bombarded daily with reports about risk factors, many conflicting with each other, others accepted as "scientific truth" for awhile, then scientifically disproved, yet others questionable that later prove to be true. Physicians are faced with trying to make sense of thoseconflicting or questionable results in the scientific literature in order to guide their patients to the best possible decisions. The situation is not much easier for scientists who may waste years of their productive life, and considerable resources, basing their research efforts on what prove tobe misleading earlier research findings. What this book does is to present, in non "academese" and with many examples from the general media and scientific journals, a guide to a critical reading of research reports, which, in turn, serves as a guide to researchers as to which approaches are likelyto be regarded with raised eyebrows, and what they need to do to generate results that will be taken seriously. This stimulating and helpful book was written for informed consumers and physicians as well as for scientists evaluating the risk research literature or contemplating projects on riskresearch.

Table of Contents

Introduction: Why Did We Write This Book?	xiii
Part I The Basics of Risk
What Is Risk?	3	(11)
What Is a Risk Factor?	14	(7)
Are All Risk Factors Equal? Types of Risk Factors	21	(13)
How Do We Know If Something Is an Important Risk Factor? Statistical and Clinical Significance	34	(18)
How Do Risk Factors Work Together? Moderators, Mediators, and Other ``Inter-actions''	52	(23)
Part II How to Recognize Good and Bad Research
Who Was in the Study and Why Does That Matter? Sampling	75	(22)
What Is the Difference between a Risk Factor and a Cause? Research Design	97	(18)
What Else Should We Pay Attention To? Reliability and Validity of Measurements and Diagnoses	115	(20)
Part III Cutting-Edge Approaches
How Strong Is the Risk Factor? Potency	135	(33)
How Do We Do a Moderator--Mediator Analysis?	168	(21)
How Do We Use Multiple Risk Factors? ROC Tree Methods	189	(18)
Part IV Where Do We Go from Here?
Where Are We Now?	207	(16)
Making the Best of Good Studies	223	(15)
Hope for the Future	238	(9)
Appendix: Mathematical Demonstrations	247	(2)
Glossary	249	(6)
References	255	(10)
Index	265