Pacific Currents The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East Asia to China1s Rise

by Medeiros, Evan S.; Crane, Keith; Heginbotham, Eric; Levin, Norman D.; Lowell, Julia F.

• ISBN13: 9780833044648
• ISBN10: 0833044648
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2008-12-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

China’s economic, military, and diplomatic power has been on the rise, and many worry that it is nudging aside U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region. To explore this issue, the authors examined six specific U.S. allies and partners—Australia, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. From extensive in-country interviews, trade and poll data, etc., they examined the responses in each nation to China’s rise and assessed the implications for U.S. regional security interests. The six nations see China primarily as a source of economic opportunity, but many have concerns about China’s regional goals. They want China to be engaged regionally in productive ways yet do not want it to become dominant. They find U.S. security commitments reassuring, bolstering their ability to engage China with confidence. The six nations clearly want U.S. involvement in the region to continue—but sometimes only in certain ways, at certain times, and on particular issues. Thus, the six nations are pulling China closer for the economic opportunities it offers and the United States closer for the general reassurance its long-standing power and influence provide.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Fifures	p. xi
Tables	p. xiii
Summary	p. xv
Acknowledgments	p. xxv
Abbreviations	p. xxvii
Introduction	p. 1
Scope and Methodology	p. 2
Organization	p. 4
China's Changing Economic Relations with Asia	p. 5
Trade Flows	p. 5
China as a Key Export Marker	p. 5
Declining Importance to China	p. 8
China as an Assembly Hub for East Asian Electronics	p. 9
Trade in Services	p. 11
Chinese Payments for Service, Factor Incomes, and Transfers	p. 13
Chinese Earnings from Services, Factor Incomes, and Transfers	p. 14
Foreign Direct Investment: Competitors or Collaborators?	p. 15
Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment into China	p. 15
Chinese Investment in the Six Nations	p. 17
Competition for FDI	p. 18
Winners and Losers from Trade with China	p. 19
Winners	p. 19
Lossers	p. 21
Net Assessment	p. 21
Japan	p. 23
National Conditions	p. 24
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion	p. 25
The History Question and Yasukuni	p. 26
Popular Perceptions of China	p. 28
The LDP's China Posture	p. 30
The Oppsition	p. 31
Economic Responses	p. 32
Trade with China	p. 33
Foreign Direct Investment Flows	p. 34
The Economic Ministries' Position	p. 37
Jappanese Businesses Embrace China	p. 39
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses	p. 40
Tighter Embrace of the United States	p. 41
Strategic Relations with India, Taiwan, and Australia	p. 42
Reengaging Southeast Asia	p. 45
Democracy, History, and Asian Leadership	p. 45
Bilateral Relations with China	p. 46
Dfense Policy Responses	p. 49
Military Planning and Guidance	p. 50
New Missions, Old Budgets	p. 51
Strengthening the Coast Guard	p. 55
Conclusions and Implications	p. 55
Policy Integration	p. 56
Domestic and International Variables	p. 58
Indicators of Change	p. 59
South Korea	p. 63
National Conditions	p. 65
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion	p. 68
Domestic Politics	p. 68
Popular Views and Public Opinion	p. 72
Economic Responsess	p. 73
Fading Optimism and Growing Concerns	p. 77
Assessing Winners and Losers	p. 80
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses	p. 82
Defense Policy Responses	p. 85
Defense Policy	p. 85
Military Relations with China	p. 89
Conclusions and Implications	p. 90
Driving Forces and Likely Futures	p. 91
The Strength of U.S.-South Korean Security Relations	p. 93
Potential Tests of Will	p. 94
The Philippines	p. 97
National Conditions	p. 98
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion	p. 100
Economic Responses	p. 102
Winners and Losers from Trade with China	p. 104
Trade in Services	p. 107
Foreign Direct Investment	p. 108
Role of the Ethnic Chinese Business Community	p. 109
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses	p. 110
Bilateral Relations with China	p. 110
Philippine-ASEAN Interactions	p. 112
Relations with the United States	p. 114
Taiwan Policy	p. 115
Defense Policy Responses	p. 116
Rebuilding of U.S.-Philippine Military Ties	p. 118
Dfense Cooperation with Other Countries	p. 119
Military Exchanges with China	p. 120
Conclusions and Implications	p. 120
Key Findings	p. 120
Futuree Responses and the Implications for the United States	p. 122
Thailand
National Conditions	p. 126
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion	p. 128
A Pro-China Tilt?	p. 129
	p. 130
Ecinomic Responces	p. 132
Chinese-Thai Trade	p. 132
Thailand and China in Regional Production Chins	p. 133
Thaiand's Chinese Business Groups	p. 136
Interlocking FTAs and Thailand as Hub	p. 137
Chinese Investment in Thailand	p. 139
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses	p. 141
Bilateral Relations with China and the United States	p. 141
Improving Relations with Burma, India, and China	p. 143
Multilateralism and Regional Politics	p. 145
Defense Policy Responses	p. 147
Force Modernization Plans	p. 147
Threat Perceptions and China	p. 149
Strategic Relations and Military Diplomacy with China	p. 150
Security Cooperation with the United States	p. 152
Cultivating New Security Partners	p. 153
Conclusions and Implications
Policy Integration	p. 155
Variables and Indicators	p. 156
Singapore	p. 159
National Conditions	p. 160
The Ethnic Dimension	p. 162
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion	p. 162
Public Perceptions f China	p. 163
Economic Responses	p. 164
Singapore's Stake in Regional Economic Integration	p. 165
Merchandise Trade	p. 167
Foreign Direct Investment	p. 171
Economic Winners and Losers	p. 175
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses	p. 176
Regional Policy	p. 176
Taiwan Policy	p. 178
Defense Policy Responses	p. 180
Defense Cooperation with the United States	p. 181
Importance of Technology Cooperation	p. 183
Defense Relations with ASEAN States and China	p. 184
Conclhsions and Implications	p. 185
Australia	p. 189
National Conditions	p. 190
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion	p. 195
Domestic Politics	p. 195
Public Opinion	p. 196
Economic Responses	p. 197
Trade	p. 198
The Composition of Trade	p. 201
Foreign Direct Investment	p. 204
Winners and Losers	p. 205
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses	p. 208
Perceptions of China in Regional Security Affairs	p. 209
Australia's Embrace of China	p. 210
Australia's Asia Diplomacy	p. 213
The U.S. Factor in Australian-Chinese Relations	p. 215
Interpreting Australian-Chinese Relations	p. 217
Defense Policy Responses	p. 219
Defense Community Perceptions of China	p. 220
Defense Planning and Procurement	p. 222
Military-to-Military Relations with China	p. 224
Conclusions and Implications	p. 226
Key Findings	p. 226
Future Trends and Indicators	p. 228
Conclusions	p. 231
Overall Conclusions	p. 231
Evaluating Regional Responses to China	p. 234
Australia, Japan, and Singapore	p. 234
The Philippines and Thailand	p. 235
South Korea	p. 236
Understanding Regional Responses to China	p. 237
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion	p. 237
Economic Relations	p. 239
Diplomacy and Foreign Policy	p. 240
Defense Policy Responses	p. 242
Implications for U.S. Regional Security Policy	p. 244
Implications for the U.S. Air Force	p. 247
Prospects for Future Security Cooperation	p. 249
Australia	p. 249
Japan	p. 251
The Philippines	p. 252
Singapore	p. 253
South Korea	p. 254
Thailand	p. 255
Bibliography	p. 257
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