Pacific Currents The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East Asia to China1s Rise

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  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 2008-12-16
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation

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China’s economic, military, and diplomatic power has been on the rise, and many worry that it is nudging aside U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region. To explore this issue, the authors examined six specific U.S. allies and partners—Australia, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. From extensive in-country interviews, trade and poll data, etc., they examined the responses in each nation to China’s rise and assessed the implications for U.S. regional security interests. The six nations see China primarily as a source of economic opportunity, but many have concerns about China’s regional goals. They want China to be engaged regionally in productive ways yet do not want it to become dominant. They find U.S. security commitments reassuring, bolstering their ability to engage China with confidence. The six nations clearly want U.S. involvement in the region to continue—but sometimes only in certain ways, at certain times, and on particular issues. Thus, the six nations are pulling China closer for the economic opportunities it offers and the United States closer for the general reassurance its long-standing power and influence provide.

Table of Contents

Prefacep. iii
Fifuresp. xi
Tablesp. xiii
Summaryp. xv
Acknowledgmentsp. xxv
Abbreviationsp. xxvii
Introductionp. 1
Scope and Methodologyp. 2
Organizationp. 4
China's Changing Economic Relations with Asiap. 5
Trade Flowsp. 5
China as a Key Export Markerp. 5
Declining Importance to Chinap. 8
China as an Assembly Hub for East Asian Electronicsp. 9
Trade in Servicesp. 11
Chinese Payments for Service, Factor Incomes, and Transfersp. 13
Chinese Earnings from Services, Factor Incomes, and Transfersp. 14
Foreign Direct Investment: Competitors or Collaborators?p. 15
Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment into Chinap. 15
Chinese Investment in the Six Nationsp. 17
Competition for FDIp. 18
Winners and Losers from Trade with Chinap. 19
Winnersp. 19
Lossersp. 21
Net Assessmentp. 21
Japanp. 23
National Conditionsp. 24
Domestic Politics and Public Opinionp. 25
The History Question and Yasukunip. 26
Popular Perceptions of Chinap. 28
The LDP's China Posturep. 30
The Oppsitionp. 31
Economic Responsesp. 32
Trade with Chinap. 33
Foreign Direct Investment Flowsp. 34
The Economic Ministries' Positionp. 37
Jappanese Businesses Embrace Chinap. 39
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responsesp. 40
Tighter Embrace of the United Statesp. 41
Strategic Relations with India, Taiwan, and Australiap. 42
Reengaging Southeast Asiap. 45
Democracy, History, and Asian Leadershipp. 45
Bilateral Relations with Chinap. 46
Dfense Policy Responsesp. 49
Military Planning and Guidancep. 50
New Missions, Old Budgetsp. 51
Strengthening the Coast Guardp. 55
Conclusions and Implicationsp. 55
Policy Integrationp. 56
Domestic and International Variablesp. 58
Indicators of Changep. 59
South Koreap. 63
National Conditionsp. 65
Domestic Politics and Public Opinionp. 68
Domestic Politicsp. 68
Popular Views and Public Opinionp. 72
Economic Responsessp. 73
Fading Optimism and Growing Concernsp. 77
Assessing Winners and Losersp. 80
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responsesp. 82
Defense Policy Responsesp. 85
Defense Policyp. 85
Military Relations with Chinap. 89
Conclusions and Implicationsp. 90
Driving Forces and Likely Futuresp. 91
The Strength of U.S.-South Korean Security Relationsp. 93
Potential Tests of Willp. 94
The Philippinesp. 97
National Conditionsp. 98
Domestic Politics and Public Opinionp. 100
Economic Responsesp. 102
Winners and Losers from Trade with Chinap. 104
Trade in Servicesp. 107
Foreign Direct Investmentp. 108
Role of the Ethnic Chinese Business Communityp. 109
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responsesp. 110
Bilateral Relations with Chinap. 110
Philippine-ASEAN Interactionsp. 112
Relations with the United Statesp. 114
Taiwan Policyp. 115
Defense Policy Responsesp. 116
Rebuilding of U.S.-Philippine Military Tiesp. 118
Dfense Cooperation with Other Countriesp. 119
Military Exchanges with Chinap. 120
Conclusions and Implicationsp. 120
Key Findingsp. 120
Futuree Responses and the Implications for the United Statesp. 122
National Conditionsp. 126
Domestic Politics and Public Opinionp. 128
A Pro-China Tilt?p. 129
p. 130
Ecinomic Responcesp. 132
Chinese-Thai Tradep. 132
Thailand and China in Regional Production Chinsp. 133
Thaiand's Chinese Business Groupsp. 136
Interlocking FTAs and Thailand as Hubp. 137
Chinese Investment in Thailandp. 139
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responsesp. 141
Bilateral Relations with China and the United Statesp. 141
Improving Relations with Burma, India, and Chinap. 143
Multilateralism and Regional Politicsp. 145
Defense Policy Responsesp. 147
Force Modernization Plansp. 147
Threat Perceptions and Chinap. 149
Strategic Relations and Military Diplomacy with Chinap. 150
Security Cooperation with the United Statesp. 152
Cultivating New Security Partnersp. 153
Conclusions and Implications
Policy Integrationp. 155
Variables and Indicatorsp. 156
Singaporep. 159
National Conditionsp. 160
The Ethnic Dimensionp. 162
Domestic Politics and Public Opinionp. 162
Public Perceptions f Chinap. 163
Economic Responsesp. 164
Singapore's Stake in Regional Economic Integrationp. 165
Merchandise Tradep. 167
Foreign Direct Investmentp. 171
Economic Winners and Losersp. 175
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responsesp. 176
Regional Policyp. 176
Taiwan Policyp. 178
Defense Policy Responsesp. 180
Defense Cooperation with the United Statesp. 181
Importance of Technology Cooperationp. 183
Defense Relations with ASEAN States and Chinap. 184
Conclhsions and Implicationsp. 185
Australiap. 189
National Conditionsp. 190
Domestic Politics and Public Opinionp. 195
Domestic Politicsp. 195
Public Opinionp. 196
Economic Responsesp. 197
Tradep. 198
The Composition of Tradep. 201
Foreign Direct Investmentp. 204
Winners and Losersp. 205
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responsesp. 208
Perceptions of China in Regional Security Affairsp. 209
Australia's Embrace of Chinap. 210
Australia's Asia Diplomacyp. 213
The U.S. Factor in Australian-Chinese Relationsp. 215
Interpreting Australian-Chinese Relationsp. 217
Defense Policy Responsesp. 219
Defense Community Perceptions of Chinap. 220
Defense Planning and Procurementp. 222
Military-to-Military Relations with Chinap. 224
Conclusions and Implicationsp. 226
Key Findingsp. 226
Future Trends and Indicatorsp. 228
Conclusionsp. 231
Overall Conclusionsp. 231
Evaluating Regional Responses to Chinap. 234
Australia, Japan, and Singaporep. 234
The Philippines and Thailandp. 235
South Koreap. 236
Understanding Regional Responses to Chinap. 237
Domestic Politics and Public Opinionp. 237
Economic Relationsp. 239
Diplomacy and Foreign Policyp. 240
Defense Policy Responsesp. 242
Implications for U.S. Regional Security Policyp. 244
Implications for the U.S. Air Forcep. 247
Prospects for Future Security Cooperationp. 249
Australiap. 249
Japanp. 251
The Philippinesp. 252
Singaporep. 253
South Koreap. 254
Thailandp. 255
Bibliographyp. 257
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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