Preface | p. iii |
Fifures | p. xi |
Tables | p. xiii |
Summary | p. xv |
Acknowledgments | p. xxv |
Abbreviations | p. xxvii |
Introduction | p. 1 |
Scope and Methodology | p. 2 |
Organization | p. 4 |
China's Changing Economic Relations with Asia | p. 5 |
Trade Flows | p. 5 |
China as a Key Export Marker | p. 5 |
Declining Importance to China | p. 8 |
China as an Assembly Hub for East Asian Electronics | p. 9 |
Trade in Services | p. 11 |
Chinese Payments for Service, Factor Incomes, and Transfers | p. 13 |
Chinese Earnings from Services, Factor Incomes, and Transfers | p. 14 |
Foreign Direct Investment: Competitors or Collaborators? | p. 15 |
Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment into China | p. 15 |
Chinese Investment in the Six Nations | p. 17 |
Competition for FDI | p. 18 |
Winners and Losers from Trade with China | p. 19 |
Winners | p. 19 |
Lossers | p. 21 |
Net Assessment | p. 21 |
Japan | p. 23 |
National Conditions | p. 24 |
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion | p. 25 |
The History Question and Yasukuni | p. 26 |
Popular Perceptions of China | p. 28 |
The LDP's China Posture | p. 30 |
The Oppsition | p. 31 |
Economic Responses | p. 32 |
Trade with China | p. 33 |
Foreign Direct Investment Flows | p. 34 |
The Economic Ministries' Position | p. 37 |
Jappanese Businesses Embrace China | p. 39 |
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses | p. 40 |
Tighter Embrace of the United States | p. 41 |
Strategic Relations with India, Taiwan, and Australia | p. 42 |
Reengaging Southeast Asia | p. 45 |
Democracy, History, and Asian Leadership | p. 45 |
Bilateral Relations with China | p. 46 |
Dfense Policy Responses | p. 49 |
Military Planning and Guidance | p. 50 |
New Missions, Old Budgets | p. 51 |
Strengthening the Coast Guard | p. 55 |
Conclusions and Implications | p. 55 |
Policy Integration | p. 56 |
Domestic and International Variables | p. 58 |
Indicators of Change | p. 59 |
South Korea | p. 63 |
National Conditions | p. 65 |
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion | p. 68 |
Domestic Politics | p. 68 |
Popular Views and Public Opinion | p. 72 |
Economic Responsess | p. 73 |
Fading Optimism and Growing Concerns | p. 77 |
Assessing Winners and Losers | p. 80 |
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses | p. 82 |
Defense Policy Responses | p. 85 |
Defense Policy | p. 85 |
Military Relations with China | p. 89 |
Conclusions and Implications | p. 90 |
Driving Forces and Likely Futures | p. 91 |
The Strength of U.S.-South Korean Security Relations | p. 93 |
Potential Tests of Will | p. 94 |
The Philippines | p. 97 |
National Conditions | p. 98 |
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion | p. 100 |
Economic Responses | p. 102 |
Winners and Losers from Trade with China | p. 104 |
Trade in Services | p. 107 |
Foreign Direct Investment | p. 108 |
Role of the Ethnic Chinese Business Community | p. 109 |
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses | p. 110 |
Bilateral Relations with China | p. 110 |
Philippine-ASEAN Interactions | p. 112 |
Relations with the United States | p. 114 |
Taiwan Policy | p. 115 |
Defense Policy Responses | p. 116 |
Rebuilding of U.S.-Philippine Military Ties | p. 118 |
Dfense Cooperation with Other Countries | p. 119 |
Military Exchanges with China | p. 120 |
Conclusions and Implications | p. 120 |
Key Findings | p. 120 |
Futuree Responses and the Implications for the United States | p. 122 |
Thailand | |
National Conditions | p. 126 |
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion | p. 128 |
A Pro-China Tilt? | p. 129 |
p. 130 | |
Ecinomic Responces | p. 132 |
Chinese-Thai Trade | p. 132 |
Thailand and China in Regional Production Chins | p. 133 |
Thaiand's Chinese Business Groups | p. 136 |
Interlocking FTAs and Thailand as Hub | p. 137 |
Chinese Investment in Thailand | p. 139 |
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses | p. 141 |
Bilateral Relations with China and the United States | p. 141 |
Improving Relations with Burma, India, and China | p. 143 |
Multilateralism and Regional Politics | p. 145 |
Defense Policy Responses | p. 147 |
Force Modernization Plans | p. 147 |
Threat Perceptions and China | p. 149 |
Strategic Relations and Military Diplomacy with China | p. 150 |
Security Cooperation with the United States | p. 152 |
Cultivating New Security Partners | p. 153 |
Conclusions and Implications | |
Policy Integration | p. 155 |
Variables and Indicators | p. 156 |
Singapore | p. 159 |
National Conditions | p. 160 |
The Ethnic Dimension | p. 162 |
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion | p. 162 |
Public Perceptions f China | p. 163 |
Economic Responses | p. 164 |
Singapore's Stake in Regional Economic Integration | p. 165 |
Merchandise Trade | p. 167 |
Foreign Direct Investment | p. 171 |
Economic Winners and Losers | p. 175 |
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses | p. 176 |
Regional Policy | p. 176 |
Taiwan Policy | p. 178 |
Defense Policy Responses | p. 180 |
Defense Cooperation with the United States | p. 181 |
Importance of Technology Cooperation | p. 183 |
Defense Relations with ASEAN States and China | p. 184 |
Conclhsions and Implications | p. 185 |
Australia | p. 189 |
National Conditions | p. 190 |
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion | p. 195 |
Domestic Politics | p. 195 |
Public Opinion | p. 196 |
Economic Responses | p. 197 |
Trade | p. 198 |
The Composition of Trade | p. 201 |
Foreign Direct Investment | p. 204 |
Winners and Losers | p. 205 |
Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Responses | p. 208 |
Perceptions of China in Regional Security Affairs | p. 209 |
Australia's Embrace of China | p. 210 |
Australia's Asia Diplomacy | p. 213 |
The U.S. Factor in Australian-Chinese Relations | p. 215 |
Interpreting Australian-Chinese Relations | p. 217 |
Defense Policy Responses | p. 219 |
Defense Community Perceptions of China | p. 220 |
Defense Planning and Procurement | p. 222 |
Military-to-Military Relations with China | p. 224 |
Conclusions and Implications | p. 226 |
Key Findings | p. 226 |
Future Trends and Indicators | p. 228 |
Conclusions | p. 231 |
Overall Conclusions | p. 231 |
Evaluating Regional Responses to China | p. 234 |
Australia, Japan, and Singapore | p. 234 |
The Philippines and Thailand | p. 235 |
South Korea | p. 236 |
Understanding Regional Responses to China | p. 237 |
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion | p. 237 |
Economic Relations | p. 239 |
Diplomacy and Foreign Policy | p. 240 |
Defense Policy Responses | p. 242 |
Implications for U.S. Regional Security Policy | p. 244 |
Implications for the U.S. Air Force | p. 247 |
Prospects for Future Security Cooperation | p. 249 |
Australia | p. 249 |
Japan | p. 251 |
The Philippines | p. 252 |
Singapore | p. 253 |
South Korea | p. 254 |
Thailand | p. 255 |
Bibliography | p. 257 |
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