Acknowledgments | p. ix |
Introduction | p. 1 |
From Cell to Solar Photovoltaic Energy | p. 2 |
An Investment Opportunity | p. 4 |
About This Book | p. 6 |
Solar Technologies: The Science behind the Stocks | p. 9 |
Solar Technologies: Silicon vs. Thin Film | p. 11 |
Manufacturing Process for Silicon-Based Solar | p. 12 |
Cell Manufacturing | p. 23 |
Using Production Methods to Pick Stocks | p. 28 |
Research and Development Outlook | p. 34 |
Monitoring the Industry | p. 41 |
Solar: A Global Market | p. 41 |
Net Metering and Feed-in Tariffs | p. 42 |
A Survey of Incentive Programs around the World | p. 43 |
Interpreting News of Incentive Program Changes | p. 53 |
Renewable Portfolio Standards | p. 54 |
U.S. Investment Tax Credit and the Implications or the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act | p. 65 |
Comparative Business Models: PV Economics and Emerging Markets | p. 69 |
The Solar System at a Glance | p. 70 |
Vertical Integration in the Solar PV Industry | p. 71 |
Position in Supply Chain and Extent of Vertical Integration | p. 72 |
Industry Analysis of the Solar Supply Chain | p. 73 |
Solarfun and Suntech Power: Comparison of Integration Strategies | p. 78 |
Strategic Partnerships in the PV Industry | p. 83 |
Long-Term Contracts for Solar Modules and Capacity Expansions | p. 85 |
The Economics of Solar PV | p. 87 |
Financing Solar PV Projects in the United States | p. 94 |
Emerging Business Models | p. 98 |
Solar Stock Valuation | p. 107 |
Ratio-Based Analysis | p. 107 |
Valuation with M&A Deals as Reference | p. 113 |
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation | p. 115 |
Earnings Drivers | p. 121 |
ROIC/ROER Valuation | p. 127 |
Investment Prospects for Solar PV Stocks | p. 131 |
Volatility and Risk | p. 135 |
Capacity Expansions and Production Growth | p. 136 |
Raw Material Supply Contracts | p. 136 |
Revenue Visibility | p. 137 |
News on Government Policies | p. 138 |
News on Ethics/Corporate Governance Issues | p. 139 |
A Reputable Investor Increasing Stake/Insider Ownership | p. 139 |
Approaching Prepayment Deadlines | p. 140 |
Volatility Analysis and Classification of Catalysts: Examples | p. 140 |
Measuring Volatility | p. 148 |
Put-to-Call Open Interest Ratio | p. 148 |
The Economics of Fabrication Expansion | p. 149 |
The Future of Fab Equipment Spending | p. 161 |
Pulling the Trigger | p. 165 |
Risk-Reward Calculus for Solar PV Stocks | p. 165 |
Correlation and Beta of Solar PV Stocks with Oil and Natural Gas Indices | p. 170 |
Coefficient of Variation of Solar Stocks and Standard Deviation of the Indices | p. 174 |
Differentiation for the Long-Term Investor | p. 177 |
Trigger for the Long-Term Investor | p. 179 |
First Solar from a Long-Term Perspective | p. 180 |
Suntech Power from a Long-Term Perspective | p. 183 |
Knowing When to Take Action | p. 185 |
To Buy, Sell, or Short | p. 186 |
Investing for the Long Run | p. 193 |
Identifying Risks | p. 194 |
Research and Development | p. 196 |
Geographic Diversification | p. 198 |
Supply Visibility | p. 198 |
Supplier Concentration | p. 200 |
Demand Visibility | p. 201 |
Customer Concentration | p. 202 |
Track Record in Achieving Scale | p. 203 |
Management Quality and Corporate Governance | p. 204 |
Evergreen Solar-the Long-Term View | p. 206 |
Company Examples for a Better Understanding | p. 210 |
Investing on the Basis of Revenue and Earnings Growth | p. 218 |
Strategic Risks | p. 219 |
Macrolevel Risks | p. 219 |
Operational Risks | p. 220 |
Product-Related Risks | p. 221 |
Cost Reduction in the Industry | p. 222 |
Exchange Rate Impact | p. 227 |
Rebalancing a Solar Portfolio | p. 235 |
Reasons for Rebalancing a Solar Portfolio | p. 236 |
Ratio-Based Analysis | p. 239 |
Company Illustrations | p. 246 |
Differentiated Companies in the Solar PV Sector | p. 249 |
Principles for Managing a Solar Portfolio | p. 252 |
The Solar Storm | p. 257 |
The Storm Becomes Tropical: Subsidies Cut | p. 264 |
Hurricanes, Tornadoes, and the Credit Crisis | p. 266 |
October 2008: The Eye Passes Overhead | p. 267 |
Creative Destruction | p. 269 |
U.S. Utility Market | p. 278 |
Emergence of Solar Master Limited Partnerships | p. 281 |
After the Storm: Solar PV Business Models of the Future | p. 282 |
Index | p. 285 |
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